The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter

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9780226922157: The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter

With the 2012 presidential election upon us, will voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platforms and positions best match their own? Or will the race for the next president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaigning? It's a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In "The Timeline of Presidential Elections", Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters' trial heats, preferences have come into focus - and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters' intentions change only gradually, with particular events - including presidential debates - rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of - or not made aware of - fundamental factors like candidates' policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

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Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien
Editore: University of Chicago press
ISBN 10: 0226922154 ISBN 13: 9780226922157
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Descrizione libro University of Chicago press. Condizione libro: New. Brand New. Codice libro della libreria 0226922154

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Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien
Editore: The University of Chicago Press, United States (2012)
ISBN 10: 0226922154 ISBN 13: 9780226922157
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Descrizione libro The University of Chicago Press, United States, 2012. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. 226 x 150 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. With the 2012 presidential election upon us, will voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platforms and positions best match their own? Or will the race for the next president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaigning? It s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections , Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters trial heats, preferences have come into focus - and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters intentions change only gradually, with particular events - including presidential debates - rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of - or not made aware of - fundamental factors like candidates policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections. Codice libro della libreria AAH9780226922157

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Erikson, Robert S.; Wlezien, Christopher
ISBN 10: 0226922154 ISBN 13: 9780226922157
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Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien
Editore: The University of Chicago Press, United States (2012)
ISBN 10: 0226922154 ISBN 13: 9780226922157
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Descrizione libro The University of Chicago Press, United States, 2012. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. 226 x 150 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. With the 2012 presidential election upon us, will voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platforms and positions best match their own? Or will the race for the next president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaigning? It s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections , Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters trial heats, preferences have come into focus - and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters intentions change only gradually, with particular events - including presidential debates - rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of - or not made aware of - fundamental factors like candidates policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections. Codice libro della libreria AAH9780226922157

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ROBERT S. ERIKSON
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Descrizione libro Univ of Chicago. Condizione libro: BRAND NEW. BRAND NEW Softcover A Brand New Quality Book from a Full-Time Bookshop in business since 1992!. Codice libro della libreria 2101662

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Descrizione libro Univ of Chicago. Condizione libro: BRAND NEW. BRAND NEW Softcover A Brand New Quality Book from a Full-Time Bookshop in business since 1992!. Codice libro della libreria 2265013

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Descrizione libro University of Chicago Press, 2012. PAP. Condizione libro: New. New Book. Shipped from UK in 4 to 14 days. Established seller since 2000. Codice libro della libreria WG-9780226922157

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Descrizione libro University of Chicago Press, 2012. PAP. Condizione libro: New. New Book.Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Codice libro della libreria IB-9780226922157

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Robert S. Erikson
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Descrizione libro 2012. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. 150mm x 13mm x 226mm. Paperback. With the 2012 presidential election upon us, will voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or will the race for the next president of.Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. 209 pages. 0.318. Codice libro della libreria 9780226922157

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