Economic Growth in History: Survey and Analysis

 
9780415607650: Economic Growth in History: Survey and Analysis

This book breaks fresh ground in the most challenging aspect of economics and economic history – the nature of economic growth.

Professor Gould considers a wide range of theories about growth and its causes, and examines these theories in the light of modern economic history. The first chapter sketches the historical experience of growth in its broad contours. There follow discussions of the contribution made by agriculture, savings and investment, foreign trade, industrialization, technological change and a number of ‘residual’ elements. A final chapter offers a critical survey of several leading theories of economic development, judged in the light of actual historical experience.

Throughout, the author has chosen to test theories rather than to deploy data of historical change and then induce theory from it. Often the result is somewhat discouraging, either because historical reality proves to be too complex to be adequately explained by even a sophisticated ‘theory’, or because practical difficulties make it impossible to subject the theory in question to a satisfactory test. Yet economists no less than economic historians will value the exercise for removing so many confusions from the study of development economics. Professor Gould’s highly readable style and avoidance of unnecessary jargon ensure that his book will be readily accessible to all those interested in problems of global poverty and economic development. This book was first published in 1972.

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Contenuti:

list of figures page xi

list of tables xii

preface xiii

introduction xv

1 Growth and Development in History 1

Economic growth and economic development Growth and welfare – The measurement of economic growth – National income accounting: progress, promise, and pitfalls – The growth of income in modern times Economic growth before the mid-nineteenth century – The demographic factor and economic growth – Structural change in history – Structural change and sectoral productivity – The ‘services’ sector

2 Agriculture in Economic Growth 70

The role of agriculture – The contraction of the agricultural sector – Peasant artisans and peasant traders – Systems of land tenure and inheritance Agricultural productivity before the industrial age – Agricultural productivity in recent times – The sources of productivity improvement – Agricultural productivity and the growth of the economy

3 The Role of Capital 115

(a){emsp}investment and economic 115

growth

The unimportance of capital? – Some conceptual and measurement problems – Capital/output ratios, cross-country and over time – Investment ratios in theory and history – Investment: the key to the ‘industrial revolution’? – Savings and investment in pre-industrial societies

(b){emsp}the sources of capital 157

‘Direct’ financing and intermediation in history – The financing of the ‘industrial revolution’ – Financial intermediation in the industrial era – The sources of savings – ‘Involuntary’ saving

(c){emsp}the export of capital 178

The history of capital exports – Capital imports and growth – Capital exports and the lending country – The servicing of external debt – International capital movements and economic growth since 1945

4 Foreign Trade and Economic Growth 218

Trade, State and economy in early modern times – Do trade ratios decline? – Inter-country differences in trade ratios – ‘Vertical’ specialization before World War I – Trade as an ‘engine of growth’ – ‘Enclave’ economies – Trade in manufactures to 1913 – The ‘engine of growth’ reconsidered – Trade-constrained growth before 1913 The terms of trade of primary producers – New trends in twentieth-century trade Patterns of trade since World War II – Trade and growth: some concluding remarks

5 Technology and the ‘Residual’ 295

The ‘residual’ in economic growth – Allocation of resources – ‘Human capital’ and growth – Denison on the ‘partitioning’ of growth – The role of technological change – The evidence of patent statistics – The technological revolution? – The sources of invention Private and corporate invention – Invention, innovation and lags in technological advance – Inter-country ‘lags’ – Technical ‘improvements’ – Factor proportions and technical change ‘Managerial’ improvements and productivity – Pitfalls and possibilities in the historical analysis of productivity change

6 Some Theories of Growth and Development 378

Patterns and the unique event in history – Some limiting factors in historical generalization – Hollis B. Chenery’s ‘patterns of development’ – Legal and institutional change in economic development – Market imperfections and national economic integration – The trend of income distribution – ‘Labour surplus’ models – Patterns of industrial growth: Chenery and Hoffmann – ‘Stage’ i – ‘Take-off’ – Uniformity and diversity again – The limitations of economic analysis

KEY TO REFERENCES 447

INDEXES 452

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