Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

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( su 31 valutazioni fornite da Goodreads )
 
9780470890448: Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods

Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.

Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. 

Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

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About the Author:

Herbert I. Weisberg, PhD, is Founder of Causalytics, LLC, which develops innovative technology for predictive analytics for both medical research and business applications. He was previously President of Correlation Research Inc., a consulting firm specializing in the application of statistics to various business and legal issues. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Dr. Weisberg has published numerous articles and two previous books related to applied statistics.

Review:

“This volume is an outstanding example of the need to keep our scientific methods in context and the value of careful historical research to provide this context. It should be a required part of the statistical training of every scientist.”  (Computing Reviews, 24 March 2015) 

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Herbert I. Weisberg
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ISBN 10: 0470890444 ISBN 13: 9780470890448
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Descrizione libro Condizione libro: New. Brand New. US Edition Book. We do not ship to Military Addresses. Fast Shipping with Order Tracking. For Standard Shipping 7-8 business days & Expedite Shipping 4-6 business days, after shipping. Codice libro della libreria 0470890444-RMX

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Descrizione libro John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United States, 2014. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. 1. Auflage. Language: English . Brand New Book. This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of willful ignorance has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology. It presents numerous examples, both hypothetical and real, to illustrate and support the main premise; offers a non-technical, historical survey of core statistical concepts; and speculates about the future evolution of statistics. Clinicians will find this book to be of particular interest, as will others interested in observational statistics. Codice libro della libreria AAH9780470890448

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Herbert I. Weisberg
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ISBN 10: 0470890444 ISBN 13: 9780470890448
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Descrizione libro John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United States, 2014. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. 1. Auflage. Language: English . Brand New Book. This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of willful ignorance has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology. It presents numerous examples, both hypothetical and real, to illustrate and support the main premise; offers a non-technical, historical survey of core statistical concepts; and speculates about the future evolution of statistics. Clinicians will find this book to be of particular interest, as will others interested in observational statistics. Codice libro della libreria AAH9780470890448

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Descrizione libro Wiley, 2014. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. book. Codice libro della libreria M0470890444

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Descrizione libro John Wiley and Sons Ltd, United States, 2014. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. 1. Auflage. Language: English . This book usually ship within 10-15 business days and we will endeavor to dispatch orders quicker than this where possible. Brand New Book. This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of willful ignorance has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology. It presents numerous examples, both hypothetical and real, to illustrate and support the main premise; offers a non-technical, historical survey of core statistical concepts; and speculates about the future evolution of statistics. Clinicians will find this book to be of particular interest, as will others interested in observational statistics. Codice libro della libreria BZV9780470890448

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Descrizione libro Wiley. Paperback. Condizione libro: New. Paperback. 452 pages. Dimensions: 9.1in. x 6.1in. x 1.0in.An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers. This item ships from multiple locations. Your book may arrive from Roseburg,OR, La Vergne,TN. Paperback. Codice libro della libreria 9780470890448

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