Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications - Brossura

Good, Irving John

Brossura

ISBN 10: 0486474380 ISBN 13: 9780486474380

Casa editrice: Dover Pubns, 2009

Riassunto

These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess.
These twenty-three self-contained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thought-provoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications.

Su questo libro

L'autore:

Under the supervision of Alan Turing, Irving J. Good worked with the Bletchley Park cryptographers who cracked the German Enigma code. A prolific author of technical papers, Good was Professor of Statistics at Virginia Tech from 1969 until his retirement in 1994.

Contenuti:

Acknowledgments Introduction Part I. Bayesian Rationality 1. Rational Decisions 2. Twenty-seven Principles of Rationality 3. 46656 Varieties of Bayesians 4. The Bayesian Influence, or How to Sweep Subjectivism under the Carpet Part II. Probability 5. Which Comes First, Probability or Statistics 6. Kinds of Probability 7. Sublective Probability as the Measure of a Non-measurable Set 8. Random Thoughts about Randomness 9. Some History of the Hierarchical Bayesian Methodology 10. Dynamic Probability, Computer Chess, and the Measurement of Knowledge Part III . Corroboration, Hypothesis Testing, Induction, and Simplicity 11. The White Shoe is a Red Herring 12. The White Shoe qua Herring is Pink 13. A Sublective Evaluation of Bode's Law and an "Objective" Test for Approximate Numerical Rationality 14.Some Logic and History of Hypothesis Testing 15. Explicativity, Corroboration, and the Relative Odds of Hypothesis Part IV Information and Surprise 16. The Appropriate Mathematical Tools for Describing and Measuring Uncertainty 17. On the Principle of Total Evidence 18.A Little Learning Can Be Dangerous 19. The Probabilistic Explication of Information, Evidence, Surprise, Causality, Explanation, and Utility 20. Is the Size of Our Galaxy Surprising? Part V. Causality and Explanation 21. A Causal Calculus 22. A Simplification in the "Causal Calculus" 23. Explicativity: A Mathematical Theory of Explanations with Statistical Applications References Bibliography Sublect Index of the Bibliography Name Index Sublect Index

Su questa edizione

• Editore: Dover Pubns
• Data di pubblicazione: 2009
• ISBN 10: 0486474380
• ISBN 13: 9780486474380
• Rilegatura: Copertina flessibile
• Numero di pagine: 332