Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions

Valutazione media 4,31
( su 32 valutazioni fornite da Goodreads )
 
9780674066892: Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions

Public policy advocates routinely assert that “research has shown” a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research.

Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude.

Le informazioni nella sezione "Riassunto" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.

From the Back Cover:

Policy analysis, like all empirical research, combines assumptions and data to draw conclusions about a population of interest. The logic of empirical inference is summarized by the relationship: assumptions + data conclusions. Data alone do not suffice to draw conclusions. Inference requires assumptions that relate the data to the population of interest ... Holding fixed the available data, and presuming avoidance of errors in logic, stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions. At the extreme, one may achieve certitude by posing sufficiently strong assumptions. [However, ] the credibility of inference decreases with the strength of the assumptions maintained ... Researchers regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative [policy] decisions. Exact predictions of outcomes are common, and expressions of uncertainty are rare. Yet policy predictions are often fragile. Conclusions may rest on critical, unsupported assumptions or on leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible.

About the Author:

Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor of Economics at Northwestern University.

Le informazioni nella sezione "Su questo libro" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.

I migliori risultati di ricerca su AbeBooks

1.

Manski, Charles F.
Editore: U.S.A.: Harvard University Press (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Rilegato Quantità: 1
Da
Century Bookstore
(Izmir, Turchia)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro U.S.A.: Harvard University Press, 2013. Hardcover. Condizione libro: New. Codice libro della libreria ABE-1487837580925

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 23,11
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 12,00
Da: Turchia a: U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

2.

Charles F. Manski
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Quantità: 2
Da
GreatBookPrices
(Columbia, MD, U.S.A.)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro Condizione libro: New. Codice libro della libreria 17838722-n

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 33,17
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 2,22
In U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

3.

Charles F. Manski
Editore: HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Rilegato Quantità: 10
Da
The Book Depository
(London, Regno Unito)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States, 2013. Hardback. Condizione libro: New. Language: English . Brand New Book. Public policy advocates routinely assert that research has shown a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude. Codice libro della libreria AAH9780674066892

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 35,84
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: GRATIS
Da: Regno Unito a: U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

4.

Charles F. Manski
Editore: HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Rilegato Quantità: 10
Da
The Book Depository US
(London, Regno Unito)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States, 2013. Hardback. Condizione libro: New. Language: English . Brand New Book. Public policy advocates routinely assert that research has shown a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude. Codice libro della libreria AAH9780674066892

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 37,49
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: GRATIS
Da: Regno Unito a: U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

5.

Manski, Charles F.
Editore: Harvard University Press (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Quantità: > 20
Da
Books2Anywhere
(Fairford, GLOS, Regno Unito)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro Harvard University Press, 2013. HRD. Condizione libro: New. New Book. Shipped from UK in 4 to 14 days. Established seller since 2000. Codice libro della libreria WH-9780674066892

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 27,86
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 10,23
Da: Regno Unito a: U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

6.

Manski, Charles F.
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Quantità: > 20
Da
Paperbackshop-US
(Wood Dale, IL, U.S.A.)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro 2013. HRD. Condizione libro: New. New Book. Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Codice libro della libreria TH-9780674066892

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 35,82
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 3,36
In U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

7.

MANSKI
Editore: Harvard University Press
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Quantità: > 20
Da
INDOO
(Avenel, NJ, U.S.A.)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro Harvard University Press. Condizione libro: New. Brand New. Codice libro della libreria 0674066898

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 36,90
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 2,95
In U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

8.

Charles F. Manski
Editore: Harvard 2013-02-22, Cambridge, Massachusetts (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Rilegato Quantità: 5
Da
Blackwell's
(Oxford, OX, Regno Unito)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro Harvard 2013-02-22, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2013. hardback. Condizione libro: New. Codice libro della libreria 9780674066892

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 33,40
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 6,82
Da: Regno Unito a: U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

9.

Manski, Charles F.
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Quantità: 1
Da
Pbshop
(Wood Dale, IL, U.S.A.)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro 2013. HRD. Condizione libro: New. New Book.Shipped from US within 10 to 14 business days. Established seller since 2000. Codice libro della libreria IB-9780674066892

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 37,21
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 3,36
In U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

10.

Charles F. Manski
Editore: Harvard University Press (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Rilegato Quantità: 4
Da
Ria Christie Collections
(Uxbridge, Regno Unito)
Valutazione libreria
[?]

Descrizione libro Harvard University Press, 2013. Condizione libro: New. book. Codice libro della libreria ria9780674066892_rkm

Maggiori informazioni su questa libreria | Fare una domanda alla libreria

Compra nuovo
EUR 38,49
Convertire valuta

Aggiungere al carrello

Spese di spedizione: EUR 4,40
Da: Regno Unito a: U.S.A.
Destinazione, tempi e costi

Vedi altre copie di questo libro

Vedi tutti i risultati per questo libro