Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions

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9780674066892: Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions

Public policy advocates routinely assert that "research has shown" a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude.

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1.

Charles F. Manski
Editore: HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
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Descrizione libro HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States, 2013. Hardback. Condizione libro: New. 234 x 160 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. Public policy advocates routinely assert that research has shown a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude. Codice libro della libreria AAU9780674066892

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2.

Charles F. Manski
Editore: HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
Nuovi Rilegato Quantità: 1
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Descrizione libro HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, United States, 2013. Hardback. Condizione libro: New. 234 x 160 mm. Language: English . Brand New Book. Public policy advocates routinely assert that research has shown a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude. Codice libro della libreria AAU9780674066892

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Editore: U.S.A.: Harvard University Press (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
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Descrizione libro U.S.A.: Harvard University Press, 2013. Hardcover. Condizione libro: New. Codice libro della libreria ABE-1487837580925

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Manski, Charles F.
Editore: Harvard University Press (2013)
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
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Descrizione libro Harvard University Press, 2013. Condizione libro: New. Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers. Num Pages: 224 pages, 1 graph, 3 tables. BIC Classification: 1KBB; JHB; JPQB. Category: (G) General (US: Trade). Dimension: 163 x 242 x 21. Weight in Grams: 464. . 2013. Hardcover. . . . . . Codice libro della libreria V9780674066892

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Charles F. Manski
ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
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Descrizione libro Hardback. Condizione libro: New. Not Signed; Public policy advocates routinely assert that research has shown a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Cha. book. Codice libro della libreria ria9780674066892_rkm

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Charles F. Manski
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ISBN 10: 0674066898 ISBN 13: 9780674066892
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Descrizione libro Harvard 2013-02-22, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2013. hardback. Condizione libro: New. Codice libro della libreria 9780674066892

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Descrizione libro Harvard University Press, 2013. HRD. Condizione libro: New. New Book. Shipped from UK in 4 to 14 days. Established seller since 2000. Codice libro della libreria WH-9780674066892

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Descrizione libro Harvard University Press. Condizione libro: New. Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers. Num Pages: 224 pages, 1 graph, 3 tables. BIC Classification: 1KBB; JHB; JPQB. Category: (G) General (US: Trade). Dimension: 163 x 242 x 21. Weight in Grams: 464. . 2013. Hardcover. . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Codice libro della libreria V9780674066892

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