Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - Brossura

Tetlock, Philip E.

Brossura

ISBN 10: 0691175977 ISBN 13: 9780691175973

Casa editrice: Princeton Univ Pr, 2017

Riassunto

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.

Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Su questo libro

L'autore

Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).

Dalla quarta di copertina

"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book ... that people who make prediction their business ... are no better than the rest of us."--Louis Menand, New Yorker"The definitive work on this question." --Gavyn Davies, Financial Times

"[This] book ... marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case.Expert Political Judgment... summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project.... The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that ‘experts' exist at all."--Geoffrey Colvin, Fortune

"This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed."--Robert Jervis, Columbia University

"This book is just what one would expect from America's most influential political psychologist: Intelligent, important, and closely argued. Both science and policy are brilliantly illuminated by Tetlock's fascinating arguments."--Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University

Dettagli dell?edizione

• Editore: Princeton Univ Pr
• Data di pubblicazione: 2017
• ISBN 10: 0691175977
• ISBN 13: 9780691175973
• Rilegatura: Copertina flessibile
• Lingua: Inglese
• Numero di pagine: 321