The United States and other nations are fast approaching a fateful decision on whether or not to go to war with Iraq. It is difficult to imagine firing the first shots without the U.S. government having a realistic plan for what America and others - above all, the Iraqis themselves - will do the day after the fighting ends. If Washington does not clearly define its goals for Iraq and build support for them domestically and with its allies and partners, future difficulties are bound to quickly overshadow any initial military success. Put simply, the United States may lose the peace, even if it wins the war.
This report offers a road map for thinking through a post-war Iraq. It offers a three-phased approach that outlines how Iraq can transition from its immediate precarious situation to a stable, more prosperous future. It also provides a detailed discussion of Iraq's energy capabilities in order to dispel many of the myths currently circulating through policy circles.
Without serious early planning for "Iraq the day and decade after," a painful future awaits not only the Iraqi people, but American interests in the region as well. Success or failure in Iraq will be determined by whether the region is more or less stable after direct American involvement. Early planning will not be sufficient to determine a peaceful future. But it is the first necessary step.
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Edward P. Djerejian is director of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University.
Book by Djerejian Edward P Wisner Frank G
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