Comprehensive and internationally peer-reviewed handbook on tools and methods for forecasting and analysis of global change. Each chapter in this series gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, use in combination with other methods, and speculation about future usage. Some also contain appendixes with applications and sources for further information. All chapters are presented in an MsWord (.doc) Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource in history. There are far more detailed book on specific methods, but no other resource comes close to giving the overview of such a range of methods. Each of these 39 chapters gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, uses in combination with other methods, and speculation about future evolution of the method. Some also contain appendixes with applications, links to software, and sources for further information. Version 3.0 has not only added new chapters, it has also updated and improved the editing of the previous chapters making this version a significant improvement on the previous one. Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method s evolution: Table of Contents 1. Introduction to Futures Research Jerome C. Glenn 2. Environmental Scanning Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn 3. Text Mining for Technology Foresight Alan L. Porter 4. Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 5. Real-Time Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 6 The Futures Wheel Jerome C. Glenn 7. The Futures Polygon Antonio Pacinelli 8. Trend Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 9. Cross-Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 10. Wild Cards John Petersen and Karlheintz Steinmueller 11. Structural Analysis Jacques Arcade, Michel Godet, Francis Meunier, Fabrice Roubelat 12. The Systems Perspectives Allenna Leonard with Stafford Beer 13. Decision Modeling The Futures Group International 14. Substitution Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 15. 14. Statistical Modeling Antonio Pacinelli 16. Technology Sequence Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 17. Morphological Analysis Tom Ritchey 18. Relevance Trees The Futures Group International and Theodore J. Gordon 19. Scenarios Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International 20. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning Michel Godet 21. Interactive Scenarios Theodore J. Gordon 22. Robust Decisionmaking Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Steve Bankes (RAND Corporation) 23. Participatory Methods Jerome C. Glenn 24. Simulation and Games Erwin Rausch with additions from Frank Catanzaro 25. Genius Forecasting, Intuition, and Vision Jerome C. Glenn 26. Prediction Markets Justin Wolfers and Justin Zitzewitz 27. Using Vision in Futures Clem Bezold 28. Normative Forecasting Joe Coates and Jerome C. Glenn 29. S&&T Road Mapping Theodore J. Gordon 30. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Geoffrey R. Coyle 31. Agent Modeling (demo software) Theodore J. Gordon 32. Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics Theodore Gordon 33. Multiple Perspective Concept Harold Linstone 34. Heuristics Modeling Sam Cole 35. Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah 36. Personal Futures Verne Wheelwright 37.State of the Future Index Theodore J. Gordon 38. SOFI Software System Peter Yim 39. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn
JEROME CLAYTON GLENN is co-founder and directs The Millennium Project, the leading global futures research participatory think tank supported by international organizations, governments, corporations, and NGOs, which produces the internationally recognized ''State of the Future'' annual reports since 1997. Mr. Glenn has over 40 years experience in futures research for government, international organizations, and private industry in science & technology policy, economics, education, defense, space, forecasting methodology, international telecommunications, and decision support systems with The Millennium Project, Committee for the Future, Hudson Institute, his own firm (the Future Options Room), and as an independent consultant. He is the author of over 300 future-oriented articles published in magazines such as the New York Times, Nikkei, ADWEEK, International Tribune, LEADERS, Foresight, Technological Forecasting, Futures Research Quarterly, The Futurist, author of "Future Mind: Merging the Mystical and the Technological in the 21st Century" (1989 and 1993), "Linking the Future: Findhorn, Auroville, Arcosanti" (1979), and co-author of "Space Trek: The Endless Migration" (1978 & 1979). He keynoted conferences for over 150 corporations, associations, governments, universities, and international organizations; invented the ''Futures Wheel'' forecasting technique and Futuristic Curriculum Development; was instrumental in SALT II section that banned the first space weapon (Soviet FOBS); named by Saturday Review as among the most unusually gifted leaders of America for his pioneering work in Tropical Medicine, Future Oriented Education, and Participatory Decision Making Systems in 1974; was instrumental in naming first space shuttle the ''Enterprise'' and is a leading boomerang stunt man. THEODORE JAY GORDON is a futurist and management consultant, co-founder of the Millennium Project and co-author of the annual ''State of the Future''. He is an expert in several high technology fields, a graduate engineer, a specialist in planning and policy analysis, and an entrepreneur. His current professional activities include consulting on strategy for several major corporations, lecturing, and participating on the corporate boards of Apollo Genetics, the Institute for Global Ethics, Registry Databases, and The Futures Group, the consulting firm he formed in 1971 and led for 20 years. Publications: author of many client reports, technical articles that have appeared in the open literature, and five books dealing with topics associated with the future, space, and scientific and technological developments and issues. He is co-author and co-editor of the annual "State of the Future" reports and "Futures Research Methodology"; author of the Macmillan encyclopedia article on the future of science and technology (1995). He is currently on the editorial board of several journals including Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
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Descrizione libro Amer Council for the United nations, 2009. CD-ROM. Condizione libro: Brand New. 3.0 edition. 1300 pages. 5.25x5.50x0.25 inches. In Stock. Codice libro della libreria 0981894119
Descrizione libro The Millennium Project, 2009. CD-ROM. Condizione libro: New. book. Codice libro della libreria 981894119
Descrizione libro The Millennium Project, 2009. CD-ROM. Condizione libro: New. book. Codice libro della libreria 0981894119