FOREWORD vii
PREFACE ix
Chapter 1 Introduction: Close Encounters with the Strange 1
THE IMPORTANCE OF WHY 2
BEYOND WEIRD TO THE ABSURD 4
A WEIRDNESS SAMPLER 6
Notes 13
Chapter 2 The Possibility of the Impossible 14
PARADIGMS AND THE PARANORMAL 15
LOGICAL POSSIBILITY VERSUS PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY 16
THE POSSIBILITY OF ESP 22
THEORIES AND THINGS 24
ON KNOWING THE FUTURE 25
Summary 29
Study Questions 29
Evaluate these Claims 30
Discussion Questions 30
Field Problem 30
Critical Reading and Writing 31
Suggested Readings 31
Notes 32
Chapter 3 Arguments Good, Bad, and Weird 33
CLAIMS AND ARGUMENTS 34
DEDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS 39
INDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS 42
Enumerative Induction 42
Analogical Induction 46
Hypothetical Induction (Abduction, or Inference to the Best Explanation) 47
INFORMAL FALLACIES 49
Unacceptable Premises 49
Begging the Question 49
False Dilemma 49
Irrelevant Premises 50
Equivocation 50
Composition 50
Division 51
Appeal to the Person 51
Genetic Fallacy 51
Appeal to Authority 51
Appeal to the Masses 52
Appeal to Tradition 52
Appeal to Ignorance 52
Appeal to Fear 53
Straw Man 53
Insufficient Premises 53
Hasty Generalization 53
Faulty Analogy 54
False Cause 54
Slippery Slope 54
STATISTICAL FALLACIES 55
Misleading Averages 55
Missing Values 55
Hazy Comparisons 56
Summary 56
Study Questions 57
Evaluate these Claims 58
Discussion Questions 59
Field Problem 59
Critical Reading and Writing 60
Suggested Readings 60
Notes 61
Chapter 4 Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence 62
BABYLONIAN KNOWLEDGE-ACQUISITION TECHNIQUES 63
PROPOSITIONAL KNOWLEDGE 64
REASONS AND EVIDENCE 65
EXPERT OPINION 71
COHERENCE AND JUSTIFICATION 74
SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE 75
THE APPEAL TO FAITH 77
THE APPEAL TO INTUITION 79
THE APPEAL TO MYSTICAL EXPERIENCE 81
ASTROLOGY REVISITED 84
Summary 90
Study Questions 91
Evaluate these Claims 91
Discussion Questions 91
Field Problem 91
Critical Reading and Writing 92
Suggested Readings 92
Notes 93
Chapter 5 Looking for Truth in Personal Experience 96
SEEMING AND BEING 97
PERCEIVING: WHY YOU CAN’T ALWAYS BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE 99
Perceptual Constancies 99
The Role of Expectation 100
Looking for Clarity in Vagueness 101
The Blondlot Case 105 “Constructing” UFOs 107
REMEMBERING: WHY YOU CAN’T ALWAYS TRUST WHAT YOU RECALL 111
CONCEIVING: WHY YOU SOMETIMES SEE WHAT YOU BELIEVE 118
Denying the Evidence 118
Subjective Validation 120
Confirmation Bias 126
The Availability Error 130
The Representativeness Heuristic 134
Anthropomorphic Bias 136
Against All Odds 139
ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE: WHY TESTIMONIALS CAN’T BE TRUSTED 142
The Variable Nature of Illness 144
The Placebo Effect 146
Overlooked Causes 147
SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE: WHY CONTROLLED STUDIES CAN BE TRUSTED 148
Summary 150
Study Questions 151
Evaluate these Claims 151
Discussion Questions 152
Field Problem 152
Critical Reading and Writing 152
Suggested Readings 153
Notes 153
Chapter 6 Science and Its Pretenders 158
SCIENCE AND DOGMA 159
SCIENCE AND SCIENTISM 160
SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY 161
CONFIRMING AND REFUTING HYPOTHESES 166
CRITERIA OF ADEQUACY 171
Testability 172
Fruitfulness 174
Scope 177
Simplicity 178
Conservatism 180
CREATIONISM, EVOLUTION, AND CRITERIA OF ADEQUACY 181
Scientific Creationism 183
Intelligent Design 191
PARAPSYCHOLOGY 197
Summary 211
Study Questions 212
Evaluate these Claims 213
Discussion Questions 213
Field Problem 213
Critical Reading and Writing 213
Suggested Readings 214
Notes 215
Chapter 7 Case Studies in the Extraordinary 220
THE SEARCH FORMULA 222
Step 1: State the Claim 223
Step 2: Examine the Evidence for the Claim 223
Step 3: Consider Alternative Hypotheses 224
Step 4: Rate, According to the Criteria of Adequacy, Each Hypothesis 225
HOMEOPATHY 227
INTERCESSORY PRAYER 231
UFO ABDUCTIONS 234
COMMUNICATING WITH THE DEAD 247
NEAR-DEATH EXPERIENCES 252
GHOSTS 267
CONSPIRACY THEORIES 275
Summary 287
Study Questions 288
Evaluate these Claims 288
Field Problem 289
Critical Reading and Writing 289
Suggested Readings 290
Notes 290
Chapter 8 Relativism, Truth, and Reality 295
WE EACH CREATE OUR OWN REALITY 297
REALITY IS SOCIALLY CONSTRUCTED 301
REALITY IS CONSTITUTED BY CONCEPTUAL SCHEMES 306
THE RELATIVIST’S PETARD 311
FACING REALITY 313
Summary 315
Study Questions 316
Evaluate these Claims 316
Discussion Questions 316
Field Problem 316
Critical Reading and Writing 317
Suggested Readings 318
Notes 318
CREDITS C-1
INDEX I -1