Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defences easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges.The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people.Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy,often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents.But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labour force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China,Tianjin,will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will comefrom 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map.What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life, facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
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No Ordinary Disruption is no ordinary management book. Everyone in and around business and technology has heard about disruption for awhile now, but the way Dobbs, Manyika and Woetzel dissect the phenomenon and give it meaning is truly new and exciting. They not only provide a prescient diagnosis of what's to come, but also offer compelling thoughts on how we succeed in a world that's moving faster and faster every day. The massive changes they describe can be overwhelming, but they do a remarkable job of inspiring us to confront them with intellect, humanity, and a profound optimism about our future. --Eric Schmidt,Google Executive Chairman
A compelling and rigorous illustration of how the pace of change in the last two decades has grown by orders of magnitude. Leaders from all spheres must now face up to these developments, and change their old models and processes for decision-making to handle the massive increase in shorter term volatility -- while still keeping their eyes on the longer term. Important reading for policy-makers, financiers, industrialists and NGOs interested in updating their worldview and making it fit for modern purpose. --Andrew Mackenzie,CEO of BHP Billiton
The world is getting more connected, and thus more complex. New strategies are necessary for a networked age. No Ordinary Disruption is an excellent primer in how to think strategically about the transformational role of technology and the accelerating global flows of goods, capital, and talent and how to prepare yourself for a future that will be marked by relentless change and massive opportunity. I highly recommend this book.
Reid Hoffman, co-founder/chairman of LinkedIn
No one can know the future. But No Ordinary Disruption takes a very good shot. By reading this book you can prepare for what the future will bring. Everyone with responsibility for a part of the future should carefully consider its analysis. --Lawrence H. Summers, former Treasury Secretary
The directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, the flagship think tank of the world's leading consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, dive deeply behind current headlines ("Blackberry Collapses" "Facebook Buys What's App for 19 Billion") to analyze the key forces transforming the global economy over the next two decades " and explain what business and government leaders need to do to reset their intuition and take advantage of the disruptions ahead.
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