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Descrizione libro Condizione: New. Codice articolo 25223562-n
Descrizione libro Paperback. Condizione: new. Paperback. A ground-breaking new work on improving our ability to predict future events.The international bestseller'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow_________________________What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life._________________________'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times Tetlock's latest project an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Codice articolo 9781847947154
Descrizione libro Condizione: New. pp. 352. Codice articolo 372761119
Descrizione libro paperback. Condizione: New. Language: ENG. Codice articolo 9781847947154
Descrizione libro Soft Cover. Condizione: new. Codice articolo 9781847947154
Descrizione libro Paperback. Condizione: New. BRAND NEW ** SUPER FAST SHIPPING FROM UK WAREHOUSE ** 30 DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEE. Codice articolo 9781847947154-GDR
Descrizione libro Paperback. Condizione: Brand New. 352 pages. 7.80x5.08x0.87 inches. In Stock. Codice articolo __1847947158
Descrizione libro Condizione: New. In. Codice articolo ria9781847947154_new
Descrizione libro Paperback / softback. Condizione: New. New copy - Usually dispatched within 4 working days. NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLERWINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. Codice articolo B9781847947154
Descrizione libro Condizione: New. What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This title shows that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Num Pages: 352 pages. BIC Classification: JFFR; JM. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational; (U) Tertiary Education (US: College). Dimension: 131 x 197 x 23. Weight in Grams: 248. . 2016. Paperback. . . . . Codice articolo V9781847947154