Articoli correlati a Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories: A Guide for MBAs
Seasoned US economist Edward Leamer argues here that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns that are the basis for his understanding of what drives the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.
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Contenuti:
Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals.- Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates.- Gross Domestic Product.- The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X?M.- Employment.- Inflation and Interest Rates.- Extrapolative Forecasting.- A Recession Symptoms.- Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries.- Recession Comparison Charts.- Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions?.- B Recession Stories.- Idleness Stories.- Cycle Stories.- C Recession Early Warning Signs.- Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP.- More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators.- D Recession Causes.- The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data.- In Search of Recession Causes.- Expansions: With and Without Spurts.- The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts.- The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home.- Savings and Investment.- Government.- The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge?.- The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement?.
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This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then Directing the highly-regarded and widely-quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.
Le informazioni nella sezione "Su questo libro" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.
- EditoreSpringer
- Data di pubblicazione2010
- ISBN 10 364207975X
- ISBN 13 9783642079757
- RilegaturaCopertina flessibile
- Numero di pagine376
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Descrizione libro Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -The story of this book began with my dif cult transition from teaching international economics and econometrics in Economics Ph. D. programs at Harvard and UCLA to teaching in the MBA programs at the Anderson School at UCLA. On the basis of 20 years of apparent teaching success in Ph. D. education, I arrived at the Anderson School in 1990 with a self-image as a star teacher, but I was greeted with highly disturbingmediocreteachingevaluations. Facedwithadatasetthatwasinconsistent with my view of reality, I did what analysts usually do - I formulated a theory why the data were misleading. Here is how I thought about it. Two aspects of the course - content and amu- ment - drive numerical course evaluations. If you rank courses by the average of the content score and the amusement score, then the component that can be measured most accurately will determine the ranking. Do you understand why It is what - eraging does: it eliminates the noise. Suppose, for example, that a student cannot tell anything about the content, and the content score is simply a random number, varying from student to student. Those random numbers will average out across students to about the same number for each course. As the average course content score is about the same for every course, it is the amusement score that will drive the rankings. 376 pp. Englisch. Codice articolo 9783642079757
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Descrizione libro Kartoniert / Broschiert. Condizione: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. Prof. Leamer is the director of UCLA Anderson Forecast, the leading independent forecast providing insight to Decision Makers in Business, Academia, and Government We are pattern-seeking, story-telling animals is the motto of this refreshing and . Codice articolo 5047029
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Descrizione libro Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - The story of this book began with my dif cult transition from teaching international economics and econometrics in Economics Ph. D. programs at Harvard and UCLA to teaching in the MBA programs at the Anderson School at UCLA. On the basis of 20 years of apparent teaching success in Ph. D. education, I arrived at the Anderson School in 1990 with a self-image as a star teacher, but I was greeted with highly disturbingmediocreteachingevaluations. Facedwithadatasetthatwasinconsistent with my view of reality, I did what analysts usually do - I formulated a theory why the data were misleading. Here is how I thought about it. Two aspects of the course - content and amu- ment - drive numerical course evaluations. If you rank courses by the average of the content score and the amusement score, then the component that can be measured most accurately will determine the ranking. Do you understand why It is what - eraging does: it eliminates the noise. Suppose, for example, that a student cannot tell anything about the content, and the content score is simply a random number, varying from student to student. Those random numbers will average out across students to about the same number for each course. As the average course content score is about the same for every course, it is the amusement score that will drive the rankings. Codice articolo 9783642079757
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