philip tetlock (386 risultati)

Condizione: good. Befriedigend/Good: Durchschnittlich erhaltenes Buch bzw. Schutzumschlag mit Gebrauchsspuren, aber vollständigen Seiten. / Describes the average WORN book or dust jacket that has all the pages present.

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Condizione: Very Good. Reissue. Ships from the UK. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.

paperback. Condizione: Very Good. All orders are dispatched within one working day from our UK warehouse. We've been selling books online since 2004! We have over 750,000 books in stock. No quibble refund if not completely satisfied.

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 0.62.

Softcover. Condizione: Bon. Ancien livre de bibliothèque. Edition 1993. Ammareal reverse jusqu'à 15% du prix net de cet article à des organisations caritatives. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Book Condition: Used, Good. Former library book. Edition 1993. Ammareal gives back up to 15% of this item's net price to charity organizations.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.14.

Condizione: Good. Ships from the UK. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Condizione: good. A copy that has been read, remains in good condition. All pages are intact, and the cover is intact. The spine and cover show signs of wear. Pages can include notes and highlighting and show signs of wear, and the copy can include "From the library of" labels or previous owner inscriptions. 100% GUARANTEE! Shipped with delivery confirmation, if youâre not satisfied with purchase please return item for full refund. Ships via media mail.

Hardcover. Condizione: Very Good. No Jacket. Missing dust jacket; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.33.

Condizione: very good. Gut/Very good: Buch bzw. Schutzumschlag mit wenigen Gebrauchsspuren an Einband, Schutzumschlag oder Seiten. / Describes a book or dust jacket that does show some signs of wear on either the binding, dust jacket or pages.

Hardcover. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Neuware -NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST 'The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.'-Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are 'superforecasters.' In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future-whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life-and is destined to become a modern classic.

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 2.1.

Softcover. Condizione: Gut. 352 p. Good. Cover shows mild wear. Clean pages. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 520.

Condizione: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. No Jacket. Former library book; May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.33.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 0.95.

Condizione: New. Brand New. Soft Cover International Edition. Different ISBN and Cover Image. Priced lower than the standard editions which is usually intended to make them more affordable for students abroad. The core content of the book is generally the same as the standard edition. The country selling restrictions may be printed on the book but is no problem for the self-use. This Item maybe shipped from US or any other country as we have multiple locations worldwide.

Paperback. Condizione: Gut. 401 p. Isolated penciled marks, otherwise good condition. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 530.

Condizione: Very Good. Very Good condition. A copy that may have a few cosmetic defects. May also contain light spine creasing or a few markings such as an owner's name, short gifter's inscription or light stamp.

Condizione: As New. Ze schopnosti predpovidat budoucnost by profitoval kazdy z nas. At uz by nakupoval akcie, uvadel na trh novy produkt, nebo jen planoval osobni program. Jenze lide jsou obvykle velmi spatni prognostici. Jak dokazal profesor Tetlock v prelomove studii z roku 2005, dokonce i predpovedi expertu jsou vetsinou jen o neco malo lepsi nez nahoda. Nekteri z nich vsak prece jen maji zvlastni schopnost videt do budoucnosti - a Tetlock stravil poslednich deset let patranim po tom, proc tomu tak je. Jak to, ze jsou v predpovidani nekteri lide skutecne dobri? A da se to naucit?V knize Superprognozy Tetlock s novinarem Danem Gardnerem jako spoluautorem nabizeji mistrovske dilo o predpovidani, ktere tezi z desitek let vyzkumu a take z vysledku velke prognosticke souteze, dotovane americkou vladou. Projekt Dobry usudek (Good Judgement Project) angazoval desitky tisic obycejnych lidi - vcetne brooklynskeho filmare, instalatera v duchodu ci byvale tanecnice -, kteri dostali jediny ukol: predpovidat svetove udalosti. Nekteri z dobrovolniku v tom byli neuveritelne dobri. Porazili nejen ostatni ucastniky experimentu, ale i akademicke experty, kolektivni usudek financnich trhu, a dokonce byli lepsi nez analytici zpravodajskych sluzeb s pristupem k tajnym informacim. Autori je nazvali ,superpredpovidaci".V teto prulomove a ctive knize nam Tetlock s Gardnerem ukazuji, co se muzeme naucit od teto elitni skupiny. Vyklad propletaji pribehy uspesnych predpovedi (nalezeni Usamy bin Ladina) i tech, ktere selhaly (vylodeni v kubanske Zatoce svini). Autori zpovidaji prognosticke experty od generala Davida Petraeuse po financnika Roberta Rubina a ukazuji, ze dobre predpovidani nevyzaduje vykonne pocitace ani tajuplne metody. Vyzaduje vsak sbirani informaci z vice zdroju, pravdepodobnostni uvazovani, praci v tymu, prubeznou evidenci vysledku, ale take ochotu pripustit chybu a zmenit pak kurz. Kniha Superprognozy nabizi poprve v historii efektivni a vedecky podlozenou metodu, jak zlepsit sve schopnosti predvidat budouci udalosti - at uz v oblasti byznysu, politiky, ci kazdodenniho zivota -, a je tak predurcena stat se moderni klasikou.

Softcover. Condizione: Gut. 356 p. Good. Cover shows mild wear. Clean pages. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 610.

Condizione: Used - Very Good. 2005. 4th Printing. Hardcover. dj. Minor shelf wear. Very Good.

Condizione: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Hardcover. Condizione: Very Good. cover shows minor shelf wear. pages are clean and unmarked. 2 2.

Encuadernación de tapa blanda. Condizione: Aceptable.

Rústica con solapas. Condizione: Buen estado. Libro.

Condizione: New. Idioma/Language: Español. Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los "expertos" predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se toman decisiones geopolíticas, de políticas públicas, de inversión, etcétera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardner muestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia empírica recogida a lo largo de años de investigación, que los "pronosticadores expertos" tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que un chimpancé. En contraposición, los autores se centran en estudiar a los "superpronosticadores": personas que tienen una gran capacidad de predicción. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son "gente común", no son especialistas, ni tienen acceso a información privilegiada. Porque predecir bien el futuro, enseña 'Superpronosticadores', tiene que ver con "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en función de cada nueva evidencia o información relacionada con el tema. *** Nota: Los envíos a España peninsular, Baleares y Canarias se realizan a través de mensajería urgente. No aceptamos pedidos con destino a Ceuta y Melilla.

Hardcover. Condizione: Good.