Bayesian Methods for Hackers: Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference [Lingua inglese] - Brossura

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron Davidson-Pilon

Brossura

ISBN 10: 0133902838 ISBN 13: 9780133902839

Casa editrice: Addison-Wesley Professional, 2015

Riassunto

Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation—Not Advanced Mathematical Analysis

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice—freeing you to get results using computing power.

Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention.

Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects.

Coverage includes

· Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications

· Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference

· Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses

· Building and debugging models with PyMC

· Testing your model’s “goodness of fit”

· Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works

· Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers”

· Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning

· Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes

· Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size

· Overcoming the “exploration vs. exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough

· Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing

· Solving data science problems that rely on mountains of data

Su questo libro

L'autore

Cameron Davidson-Pilon has seen many fields of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases, to stochastic modelling of financial prices. His main contributions to the open source community includeBayesian Methods for Hackers and lifelines. Cameron was raised in Guelph, Ontario, but educated at the University of Waterloo and Independent University of Moscow. He currently lives in Ottawa, Ontario, working with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Dettagli dell?edizione

• Editore: Addison-Wesley Professional
• Data di pubblicazione: 2015
• ISBN 10: 0133902838
• ISBN 13: 9780133902839
• Rilegatura: Copertina flessibile
• Lingua: Inglese
• Numero edizione: 1
• Numero di pagine: 250