FOR USE IN SCHOOLS AND LIBRARIES ONLY. The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how to distinguish true signals from hype.
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Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl CampbellAbout the Author:
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
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Descrizione libro Penguin Books US, 2013. Paperback. Condizione libro: Very Good. A copy that has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. At about the time The Signal and the Noise was first published in September 2012, "Big Data" was on its way becoming a Big Idea. Google searches for t he term doubled over the course of a year,1 as did mentions of it in the ne ws media.2 Hundreds of books were published on the subject. If you picked u p any business periodical in 2013, advertisements for Big Data were as ubiq uitous as cigarettes in an episode of Mad Men. But by late 2014, there was evidence that trend had reached its apex. The f requency with which Big Data was mentioned in corporate press releases had slowed down and possibly begun to decline.3 The technology research firm Ga rtner even declared that Big Data had passed the peak of its "hype cycle."4 I hope that Gartner is right. Coming to a better understanding of data and statistics is essential to help us navigate our lives. But as with most eme rging technologies, the widespread benefits to science, industry, and human welfare will come only after the hype has died down. FIGURE P-1: BIG DATA MENTIONS IN CORPORATE PRESS RELEASES I worry that certain events in my life have contributed to the hype cycle. On November 6, 2012, the statistical model at my Web site FiveThirtyEight "called" the winner of the American presidential election correctly in all fifty states. I received a congratulatory phone call from the White House. I was hailed as "lord and god of the algorithm" by The Daily Show's Jon Stewart. My name briefly received more Google search traffic than the. Codice libro della libreria RWARE0000034615
Descrizione libro Condizione libro: good. 422 Gramm. Codice libro della libreria M00143124005-G