Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions - Brossura

Downey, Allen B.

Brossura

ISBN 10: 0226845559 ISBN 13: 9780226845555

Casa editrice: University of Chicago Pr., 2025

Riassunto

An essential guide to the ways data can improve decision making.
 
Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor’s office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.
 
Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls―like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson’s paradox―and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don’t. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics―or if you have and forgot everything you learned―this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.

Dettagli dell'edizione

• Editore: University of Chicago Pr.
• Data di pubblicazione: 2025
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 0226845559
• ISBN 13: 9780226845555
• Rilegatura: Copertina flessibile
• Numero di pagine: 256
• Contatto del produttore: The University of Chicago Press; https://press.uchicago.edu/index.html; ; 5801 S. Ellis Avenue; Chicago; IL; 60637; U.S.A.
• Persona responsabile: gpsr@libri.de; gpsr@libri.de; ; Friedensallee 273; Hamburg; 22763; Germania