Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment (Classic Reprint) - Brossura
Sinossi
Excerpt from Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment
It is important to note at the outset that the theoretical utility of Delphi is that it pools individual Opinions in order to develop forecasts which are more accurate than those of any average individual. This has been the major driving force behind its development.
The potential utility of Delphi, described above, was recognized by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer in 1951-1952. They were working for the rand Corporation and applied Delphi methodology to Air Force strategy problems in Project delphi Their work, however, was not oriented towards the timing or nature of future events, as we speak of these characteristics today.
Rather, they and other early developers were interested inpolicy formation research, operations research, and political gaming Some of these early uses were directed at: (l) estimating Soviet bombing schedules for u.s. Locations, in the case of war on July (2) predicting election outcomes; and (3) predicting u.s. Policy towards Communist China. Attempts we re also made to validate the methodology through almanac delphi forecasts, which are predictions made for questions with obscure but known answers.
About the Publisher
Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com
This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Le informazioni nella sezione "Riassunto" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.
Altre edizioni note dello stesso titolo
Risultati della ricerca per Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology...
Immagini fornite dal venditore
Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology (Classic Reprint)
Print on DemandDa: Forgotten Books, London, Regno Unito
Valutazione del venditore 4 su 5 stelle
Paperback. Condizione: New. Print on Demand. This book delves into the fascinating world of Delphi forecasting, a technique for systematically gathering expert opinions to predict future events. Tracing its origins back to the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, the author explores how Delphi has evolved from its initial focus on military strategy to encompass diverse fields like medicine, education, and space exploration. Through real-world case studies, the book examines how organizations like LTV and Goodyear have utilized Delphi to inform their long-term planning. It also delves into the theoretical underpinnings of the methodology, analyzing the validity of its predictions and comparing its accuracy to other forecasting methods. Readers will gain valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of Delphi, including its reliance on expert judgment and the potential for bias. The author poses thought-provoking questions about the psychological factors that may influence forecasters and the inherent uncertainty of predicting the future. Ultimately, this book provides a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of Delphi forecasting, empowering readers to critically evaluate its potential and determine its applicability to their own endeavors. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item. Codice articolo 9780282340520_0
Compra nuovo
EUR 15,78
Spedizione gratuita
Spedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.
Spedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.
Quantità: Più di 20 disponibili
Foto dell'editore
Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment (Classic Reprint)
Da: PBShop.store US, Wood Dale, IL, U.S.A.
Valutazione del venditore 5 su 5 stelle
PAP. Condizione: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Codice articolo LW-9780282340520
Compra nuovo
EUR 22,34
Spedizione gratuita
Spedito in U.S.A.
Spedito in U.S.A.
Quantità: 15 disponibili
Foto dell'editore
Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology: The Delphi Technique, Survey and Comment (Classic Reprint)
Da: PBShop.store UK, Fairford, GLOS, Regno Unito
Valutazione del venditore 5 su 5 stelle
PAP. Condizione: New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. Codice articolo LW-9780282340520
Compra nuovo
EUR 20,96
Spedizione EUR 3,79
Spedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.
Spedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.
Quantità: 15 disponibili