The Future of Nature: Documents of Global Change - Brossura

Brossura

ISBN 10: 0300184611 ISBN 13: 9780300184617

Casa editrice: Yale Univ Pr, 2013

Riassunto

An innovative anthology that offers a global perspective on how people think about predicting the future of life on Earth

This anthology provides an historical overview of the scientific ideas behind environmental prediction and how, as predictions about environmental change have been taken more seriously and widely, they have affected politics, policy, and public perception. Through an array of texts and commentaries that examine the themes of progress, population, environment, biodiversity and sustainability from a global perspective, it explores the meaning of the future in the twenty-first century. Providing access and reference points to the origins and development of key disciplines and methods, it will encourage policy makers, professionals, and students to reflect on the roots of their own theories and practices.

Su questo libro

Informazioni sull?autore

Libby Robin is Professor of environmental history in the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University and a senior research fellow at the National Museum of Australia, Canberra. Sverker Sörlin is Professor of environmental history at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, and co-founder of the KTH Environmental Humanities Laboratory. Paul Warde is Reader in environmental and economic history at the University of East Anglia, an associate lecturer at the University of Cambridge, and associate research fellow at the Centre for History and Economics at Cambridge.

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The Future of Nature

Documents of Global Change

By Libby Robin, Sverker Sörlin, Paul Warde

Yale UNIVERSITY PRESS

Copyright © 2013 Libby Robin, Sverker Sörlin, and Paul Warde
All rights reserved.

ISBN: 978-0-300-18461-7

Contents

Preface....................................................................
xi
How to Use This Book.......................................................
xv
Introduction: Documenting Global Change....................................
1
Part 1: Population Are We Too Many, or Are We Too Greedy?.................
15
Part 2: Sustainability Are We Limited by Knowledge or Resources?..........
63
Part 3: Geographies Are Human and Natural Futures Determined or Chosen?...
117
Part 4: "The Environment" How Did the Idea Emerge?........................
157
Part 5: Ecology How Do We Understand Natural Systems?.....................
205
Part 6: Technology Does Technology Create More Problems Than It Solves?...
261
Part 7: Climate How Can We Predict Change?................................
291
Part 8: Diversity Why Do We Need It, and Can We Conserve It?..............
363
Part 9: Measuring How Do We Turn the World into Data?.....................
433
Part 10: The Anthropocene How Can We Live in a World Where There Is No 
Nature Without People?.....................................................
479
Select Bibliography........................................................
527
Acknowledgments............................................................
541
Commentators...............................................................
543
Selection Credits..........................................................
549
Index......................................................................
553

CHAPTER 1

1798

An Essay on the Principle of Population

THOMAS MALTHUS

Chapter 1

...

I think I may fairly make two postulata.

First, That food is necessary to the existence of man.

Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remainnearly in its present state.

These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appearto have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen anyalteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to bewhat they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who firstarranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, stillexecutes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.

I do not know that any writer has supposed that on this earth man will ultimatelybe able to live without food. But Mr Godwin has conjectured that thepassion between the sexes may in time be extinguished. As, however, he calls thispart of his work a deviation into the land of conjecture, I will not dwell longerupon it at present than to say that the best arguments for the perfectibility of manare drawn from a contemplation of the great progress that he has already madefrom the savage state and the difficulty of saying where he is to stop. But towardsthe extinction of the passion between the sexes, no progress whatever has hithertobeen made. It appears to exist in as much force at present as it did two thousandor four thousand years ago. There are individual exceptions now as there alwayshave been. But, as these exceptions do not appear to increase in number, it wouldsurely be a very unphilosophical mode of arguing to infer, merely from the existenceof an exception, that the exception would, in time, become the rule, andthe rule the exception.

Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population isindefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistenceincreases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers willshew the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second.

By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, theeffects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.

This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from thedifficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall somewhere and must necessarilybe severely felt by a large portion of mankind.

Through the animal and vegetable kingdoms, nature has scattered the seedsof life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand. She has been comparativelysparing in the room and the nourishment necessary to rear them. The germs ofexistence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room toexpand in, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years. Necessity,that imperious all pervading law of nature, restrains them within the prescribedbounds. The race of plants and the race of animals shrink under this greatrestrictive law. And the race of man cannot, by any efforts of reason, escape fromit. Among plants and animals its effects are waste of seed, sickness, and prematuredeath. Among mankind, misery and vice. The former, misery, is an absolutely necessaryconsequence of it. Vice is a highly probable consequence, and we thereforesee it abundantly prevail, but it ought not, perhaps, to be called an absolutely necessaryconsequence. The ordeal of virtue is to resist all temptation to evil.

This natural inequality of the two powers of population and of productionin the earth, and that great law of our nature which must constantly keep theireffects equal, form the great difficulty that to me appears insurmountable in theway to the perfectibility of society. All other arguments are of slight and subordinateconsideration in comparison of this. I see no way by which man canescape from the weight of this law which pervades all animated nature. No fanciedequality, no agrarian regulations in their utmost extent, could remove thepressure of it even for a single century. And it appears, therefore, to be decisiveagainst the possible existence of a society, all the members of which should livein ease, happiness, and comparative leisure; and feel no anxiety about providingthe means of subsistence for themselves and families.

Consequently, if the premises are just, the argument is conclusive againstthe perfectibility of the mass of mankind.

I have thus sketched the general outline of the argument, but I will examineit more particularly, and I think it will be found that experience, the true sourceand foundation of all knowledge, invariably confirms its truth.

Chapter 2

The different ratio in which population and food increase—The necessary effects ofthese different ratios of increase—Oscillation produced by them in the conditionof the lower classes of society—Reasons why this oscillation has not been so muchobserved as might be expected—Three propositions on which the general argumentof the Essay depends—The different states in which mankind have been known toexist proposed to be examined with reference to these three propositions.

I said that population, when unchecked, increased in a geometrical ratio,and subsistence for man in an arithmetical ratio. Let us examine whether thisposition be just. I think it will be allowed, that no state has hitherto existed (atleast that we have any account of) where the manners were so pure and simple,and the means of subsistence so abundant, that no check whatever has existedto early marriages, among the lower classes, from a fear of not providing well fortheir families, or among the higher classes, from a fear of lowering their conditionin life. Consequently in no state that we have yet known has the power of populationbeen left to exert itself with perfect freedom.

Whether the law of marriage be instituted or not, the dictate of nature andvirtue seems to be an early attachment to one woman. Supposing a liberty ofchanging in the case of an unfortunate choice, this liberty would not affect populationtill it arose to a height greatly vicious; and we are now supposing the existenceof a society where vice is scarcely known.

In a state therefore of great equality and virtue, where pure and simple mannersprevailed, and where the means of subsistence were so abundant that nopart of the society could have any fears about providing amply for a family, thepower of population being left to exert itself unchecked, the increase of the humanspecies would evidently be much greater than any increase that has beenhitherto known.

In the United States of America, where the means of subsistence have beenmore ample, the manners of the people more pure, and consequently the checksto early marriages fewer, than in any of the modern states of Europe, the populationhas been found to double itself in twenty-five years.

This ratio of increase, though short of the utmost power of population, yet asthe result of actual experience, we will take as our rule, and say, that population,when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years or increases ina geometrical ratio.

Let us now take any spot of earth, this Island for instance, and see in whatratio the subsistence it affords can be supposed to increase. We will begin with itunder its present state of cultivation.

If I allow that by the best possible policy, by breaking up more land and bygreat encouragements to agriculture, the produce of this Island may be doubledin the first twenty-five years, I think it will be allowing as much as any person canwell demand.

In the next twenty-five years, it is impossible to suppose that the producecould be quadrupled. It would be contrary to all our knowledge of the qualitiesof land. The very utmost that we can conceive, is, that the increase in the secondtwenty-five years might equal the present produce. Let us then take this for ourrule, though certainly far beyond the truth, and allow that, by great exertion,the whole produce of the Island might be increased every twenty-five years, bya quantity of subsistence equal to what it at present produces. The most enthusiasticspeculator cannot suppose a greater increase than this. In a few centuriesit would make every acre of land in the Island like a garden. Yet this ratio ofincrease is evidently arithmetical.

It may be fairly said, therefore, that the means of subsistence increase in anarithmetical ratio. Let us now bring the effects of these two ratios together.

The population of the Island is computed to be about seven millions, andwe will suppose the present produce equal to the support of such a number. Inthe first twenty-five years the population would be fourteen millions, and the foodbeing also doubled, the means of subsistence would be equal to this increase. Inthe next twenty-five years the population would be twenty-eight millions, and themeans of subsistence only equal to the support of twenty-one millions. In the nextperiod, the population would be fifty-six millions, and the means of subsistencejust sufficient for half that number. And at the conclusion of the first centurythe population would be one hundred and twelve millions and the means ofsubsistence only equal to the support of thirty-five millions, which would leave apopulation of seventy-seven millions totally unprovided for.

A great emigration necessarily implies unhappiness of some kind or otherin the country that is deserted. For few persons will leave their families, connections,friends, and native land, to seek a settlement in untried foreign climes,without some strong subsisting causes of uneasiness where they are, or the hopeof some great advantages in the place to which they are going.

But to make the argument more general and less interrupted by the partialviews of emigration, let us take the whole earth, instead of one spot, and supposethat the restraints to population were universally removed. If the subsistencefor man that the earth affords was to be increased every twenty-five years by aquantity equal to what the whole world at present produces, this would allow thepower of production in the earth to be absolutely unlimited, and its ratio of increasemuch greater than we can conceive that any possible exertions of mankindcould make it.

Taking the population of the world at any number, a thousand millions, forinstance, the human species would increase in the ratio of -1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64,128, 256, 512, etc. and subsistence as -1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, etc. In two centuriesand a quarter, the population would be to the means of subsistence as 512 to 10:in three centuries as 4096 to 13, and in two thousand years the difference wouldbe almost incalculable, though the produce in that time would have increasedto an immense extent.

No limits whatever are placed to the productions of the earth; they may increasefor ever and be greater than any assignable quantity. Yet still the power ofpopulation being a power of a superior order, the increase of the human speciescan only be kept commensurate to the increase of the means of subsistence bythe constant operation of the strong law of necessity acting as a check upon thegreater power.

The effects of this check remain now to be considered.

Among plants and animals the view of the subject is simple. They are all impelledby a powerful instinct to the increase of their species, and this instinct is interruptedby no reasoning or doubts about providing for their offspring. Wherevertherefore there is liberty, the power of increase is exerted, and the superabundanteffects are repressed afterwards by want of room and nourishment, which is commonto animals and plants, and among animals by becoming the prey of others.

The effects of this check on man are more complicated. Impelled to theincrease of his species by an equally powerful instinct, reason interrupts his careerand asks him whether he may not bring beings into the world for whom hecannot provide the means of subsistence. In a state of equality, this would bethe simple question. In the present state of society, other considerations occur.Will he not lower his rank in life? Will he not subject himself to greater difficultiesthan he at present feels? Will he not be obliged to labour harder? And if hehas a large family, will his utmost exertions enable him to support them? Mayhe not see his offspring in rags and misery, and clamouring for bread that hecannot give them? And may he not be reduced to the grating necessity of forfeitinghis independence, and of being obliged to the sparing hand of charity forsupport?

These considerations are calculated to prevent, and certainly do prevent, avery great number in all civilized nations from pursuing the dictate of nature inan early attachment to one woman. And this restraint almost necessarily, thoughnot absolutely so, produces vice. Yet in all societies, even those that are most vicious,the tendency to a virtuous attachment is so strong that there is a constanteffort towards an increase of population. This constant effort as constantly tendsto subject the lower classes of the society to distress and to prevent any great permanentamelioration of their condition.

The way in which these effects are produced seems to be this. We will supposethe means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of itsinhabitants. The constant effort towards population, which is found to act evenin the most vicious societies, increases the number of people before the means ofsubsistence are increased. The food therefore which before supported seven millionsmust now be divided among seven millions and a half or eight millions. Thepoor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severedistress. The number of labourers also being above the proportion of the work inthe market, the price of labour must tend toward a decrease, while the price ofprovisions would at the same time tend to rise. The labourer therefore must workharder to earn the same as he did before. During this season of distress, the discouragementsto marriage, and the difficulty of rearing a family are so great thatpopulation is at a stand. In the mean time the cheapness of labour, the plenty oflabourers, and the necessity of an increased industry amongst them, encouragecultivators to employ more labour upon their land, to turn up fresh soil, and tomanure and improve more completely what is already in tillage, till ultimatelythe means of subsistence become in the same proportion to the population as atthe period from which we set out. The situation of the labourer being then againtolerably comfortable, the restraints to population are in some degree loosened,and the same retrograde and progressive movements with respect to happinessare repeated.

This sort of oscillation will not be remarked by superficial observers, and itmay be difficult even for the most penetrating mind to calculate its periods. Yetthat in all old states some such vibration does exist, though from various transversecauses, in a much less marked, and in a much more irregular manner than I havedescribed it, no reflecting man who considers the subject deeply can well doubt.

Many reasons occur why this oscillation has been less obvious, and less decidedlyconfirmed by experience, than might naturally be expected.

One principal reason is that the histories of mankind that we possess are historiesonly of the higher classes. We have but few accounts that can be dependedupon of the manners and customs of that part of mankind where these retrogradeand progressive movements chiefly take place. A satisfactory history of this kind,on one people, and of one period, would require the constant and minute attentionof an observing mind during a long life. Some of the objects of inquiry wouldbe, in what proportion to the number of adults was the number of marriages,to what extent vicious customs prevailed in consequence of the restraints uponmatrimony, what was the comparative mortality among the children of the mostdistressed part of the community and those who lived rather more at their ease,what were the variations in the real price of labour, and what were the observabledifferences in the state of the lower classes of society with respect to ease and happiness,at different times during a certain period.

(Continues...)

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Dettagli dell'edizione

• Editore: Yale Univ Pr
• Data di pubblicazione: 2013
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 0300184611
• ISBN 13: 9780300184617
• Rilegatura: Copertina flessibile
• Numero di pagine: 564
• Redattore: Robin Libby, Sorlin Sverker, Warde Paul
• Contatto del produttore: non disponibile
• Persona responsabile: non disponibile