An authoritative inside account of the origins, successes and failures of monetarism in Britain. Gordon Pepper provides a portrait of early monetarism in the UK, explains its growing appeal in the 1970s and assesses the outcome of monetarism under Thatcher, from his own perspective as a 'fly on the wall'. He provides a comprehensive guide to macroeconomic forecasting and its policy implications.
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'...one cannot fault Pepper's history of economic forecasting during that last 30 years and his economic analysis should be seized upon by students and lecturers if they really want to understand money from a master practitioner in the City.' - Michael Oliver, Contemporary British History
'Gordon Pepper was a leading participant in the thoretical disputes which undermined the neo-Keynesian monopoly in monetary policy-making without elaborating an agreed conceptual framework or statistical matrix to take its place...It is hard to...better his outstanding mastery of monetary econometrics.' - Alfred Sherman, Spectator
Summary - Foreword - Introduction - PART 1: HOW THE MONETARISTS CAME TO POWER - Early Monetarism in the UK - Greenwell's Monetary Bulletin - Fly on the Wall during the Thatcher Revolution - The Politics of Money Supply Targets - PART 2: THE VALIDITY OF MONETARISM: Economic Forecasts in the 1970s and 1980s - Brief History of Macroeconomic Models - The Accuracy of Routine Forecasts - Major Events - The Record of the Large Models - A Monetarist Forecast - PART 3: REFINEMENTS, FURTHER EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS - The 'Liverpool Six' - Current State of Knowledge - The Forecasts of Other Monetarists - Conclusions and Policy Implications - References - Index
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