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Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry s actuarial tables and the gambler s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provides no useful guidance to future outcomes, and for which so-called experts pretend answers.Instead of accepting false certainties, John Kay and Mervyn King advise that we should adopt robust business, policy, and personal strategies that are resilient to an uncertain future. Within the security of these reference narratives, uncertainty can be embraced.
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Editore:
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Editore:
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Antico o usato
Paperback
Da: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
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Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.05. Codice articolo G0393541983I3N00
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Radical Uncertainty
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Paperback. Condizione: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Codice articolo LU-9780393541984
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Condizione: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Codice articolo V9780393541984
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Radical Uncertainty
Da: Rarewaves USA United, OSWEGO, IL, U.S.A.
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Paperback. Condizione: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Codice articolo LU-9780393541984
Quantità: 8 disponibili
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Radical Uncertainty
Da: Rarewaves.com UK, London, Regno Unito
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Paperback. Condizione: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Codice articolo LU-9780393541984
Quantità: 8 disponibili
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Radical Uncertainty
Da: Rarewaves.com USA, London, LONDO, Regno Unito
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Paperback. Condizione: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Codice articolo LU-9780393541984
Quantità: 8 disponibili
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Da: Kennys Bookstore, Olney, MD, U.S.A.
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Condizione: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Codice articolo V9780393541984
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Condizione: New. Codice articolo 41730217-n
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Editore:
W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
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Da: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, U.S.A.
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