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From bar bets to Nobel Prizes, viral outbreaks to lottery wins, how statistics shapes our choices, reveals hidden truths, and guides us toward certainty in uncertain times.
We live in an uncertain world. Morning commutes, natural disasters, global pandemics—our lives are riddled with events whose outcomes we can never know with certainty. In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell reveals how statistical thinking empowers us to navigate this uncertainty with clarity and confidence. Whether weighing the benefits of different medications or deciding if home insurance is worth the steep cost, Prell shows that just as important as asking what the data says is asking how reliable it is. Describing the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking, he teaches us how to extract meaningful information from raw data, and crucially, to recognize data that’s been cherrypicked, fabricated, or is simply wrong. As we ask if survey responses are truthful, estimate the number of deaths from the Covid pandemic, and plan for retirement, we develop a skillset to test and update our assumptions, to make more accurate forecasts, and above all, to assess the certainty of our conclusions.
Through unforgettable stories of statistical ingenuity, Prell demonstrates that the underlying math can be intuitive and even fun. And as he turns us all into statisticians, he reminds us that statistics is about more than manipulating data—it’s about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity.
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What Are the Odds?: A Statistical Guide to Certainty in an Uncertain World
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Harvard University Press, 2026
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Hardcover. Condizione: new. Hardcover. An exhilarating tour of the data that drives our world and how to make it work for all of us. Our world is awash in data. Streaming services track our viewing and listening habits to recommend movies and playlists. Government agencies analyze our credit card transactions to estimate the size of the economy. And artificial intelligence trains on massive quantities of text to answer the questions we ask it. If we want to understand how this deluge of information shapes our lives and even harness it ourselves to make smarter decisions, then we need statistics. In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell shows that statistics consists of two interwoven strands: data and analysis. Just as important as asking what the data say is asking how reliable the data are. Through stories of centuries of statistical ingenuity, Prell teaches us how to apply the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking to determine the effectiveness of vaccines, build infrastructure to protect against natural disasters, and even plan for retirement. We learn how to avoid spurious reasoning and, just as important, how to recognize and improve data that have been cherry-picked, falsified, or are just plain wrong. As Prell argues, becoming a statistician, even an amateur one, is about more than manipulating data-it's about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity. Using real-world examples, from brewing beer to finding a lost submarine, What Are the Odds? illuminates the core concepts of statistical thinking, asking not just what the data say but whether theyre any good. Mark Prell shows how to avoid spurious reasoning and how to identify data that have been cherry-picked, falsified, or are plain wrong. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Codice articolo 9780674296367
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Hardback. Condizione: New. From bar bets to Nobel Prizes, viral outbreaks to lottery wins, how statistics shapes our choices, reveals hidden truths, and guides us toward certainty in uncertain times.We live in an uncertain world. Morning commutes, natural disasters, global pandemics-our lives are riddled with events whose outcomes we can never know with certainty. In What Are the Odds? Mark Prell reveals how statistical thinking empowers us to navigate this uncertainty with clarity and confidence. Whether weighing the benefits of different medications or deciding if home insurance is worth the steep cost, Prell shows that just as important as asking what the data says is asking how reliable it is. Describing the core concepts and methods of statistical thinking, he teaches us how to extract meaningful information from raw data, and crucially, to recognize data that's been cherry-picked, fabricated, or is simply wrong. As we ask if survey responses are truthful, estimate the number of deaths from the Covid pandemic, and plan for retirement, we develop a skill set to test and update our assumptions, to make more accurate forecasts, and above all, to assess the certainty of our conclusions.Through unforgettable stories of statistical ingenuity, Prell demonstrates that the underlying math can be intuitive and even fun. And as he turns us all into statisticians, he reminds us that statistics is about more than manipulating data-it's about joining a community of statisticians committed to truth and integrity. Codice articolo LU-9780674296367
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