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List of Figures and Tables................................................................ixList of Abbreviations.....................................................................xiPreface and Acknowledgments...............................................................xiiiCHAPTER ONE World Integration and Centrifugal Forces.....................................1CHAPTER TWO Definitions and Dynamics of Racial/Ethnic Mobilization.......................33CHAPTER THREE Escalation and De-escalation: Trends in the Data...........................78CHAPTER FOUR Globalization and Nonviolent Ethnic Protest, 1965-1989......................93CHAPTER FIVE Global Integration and Ethnic Violence, 1965-1989...........................116CHAPTER SIX Group Dynamics of Ethnic Protest and Conflict, 1980-1994.....................131CHAPTER SEVEN Globalization in a New Era: Ethnic Violence since 1989.....................152CHAPTER EIGHT Democracy, Ethnic Violence, and International War..........................169CHAPTER NINE Models Incorporating Endogeneity............................................196CHAPTER TEN Conclusions and Future Considerations........................................212Appendix A: Countries in the Analysis in Chapters 4-6.....................................235Appendix B: Countries in the Analysis in Chapters 7-9.....................................237References................................................................................240Name Index................................................................................259Subject Index.............................................................................264
Ethnic movements appear worldwide in different guises. Ethnic mayhem by Sudanese Muslim soldiers, ethnic cleansing in Bosnia, nonviolent civil rights marches in the United States, Qubcois separatism in Canada, Mexican-American protests in California for bilingual education, Protestant displays of patriotism in Northern Ireland, and regional autonomy movements in the Chiapas region of Mexico all provide challenges to social scientists attempting to explain the widespread occurrence of social movements based upon ethnic identity. While some of these movements have been peaceful, comparative research indicates that ethnic movements have contributed to the majority of violent conflicts among and within nation-states since World War II. Furthermore, some scholars warn that ethnic mobilization increasingly threatens the legitimacy and stability of the world's states.
What accounts for ethnic conflict, rebellions, and protest? Up until recently, most academic and policy research has tended to rely on explanations of ethnic movements that focus on the internal characteristics of states (such as economic inequality, weakness of regimes, and the absence of democracy). Such perspectives have come under scrutiny recently because they tend to reify existing states as the key actors in world politics and they miss the relational aspect of states and nonstate organizations as a system of interconnected actors (Glick Schiller and Wimmer 2003). To begin to rectify these problems, I start by asking if global forces have contributed to ethnic political movements organized around distinctive features of culture, heritage, and identity.
In this book I offer and test a new approach to ethnic mobilization that considers the interplay between global forces of integration and the political mobilization of ethnicity. While it has become accepted wisdom that the fates of different polities have become more intertwined (Keohane and Nye 1972; Risse-Kappen 1995; Boli and Thomas 1999), there are few systematic treatments of globalization and ethnic politics. Here I explore whether globalization and ethnic social movements are causally connected.
Recent theoretical advances by a number of sociologists and political scientists inform my strategy of focusing on the world level of analysis. Although there are differences and disagreements among scholarly studies on the impact of globalization, most researchers have emphasized the consequences of a densely connected system of economic and political links among states (Keohane and Milner 1996; J. Meyer, Boli, Thomas, and Ramirez 1997; Borstelmann 2001). These perspectives vary widely, from concern with world system position, to focus on impact of direct foreign investment, to interest in the legacy of the Cold War on international relations. Some scholars studying globalization take a political stand against globalization, while others are more analytically inclined. However, all of these perspectives share the growing recognition that international forces have produced a striking isomorphism among organizational forms found in institutions, constitutions, treaties, human rights, identity politics, and other social movements.
My work expands on these theories of globalization, international networks, and transnational social movements by suggesting that processes associated with globalization have intensified at the same time that ethnic conflict appears increasingly divisive (Barber 1996; Gurr 2000; Yashar 1999, 2001; Sambanis 2001). These theories have considered the impact of global forces on the internal politics of nation-states, organizations, social movements, and other political actors (Tarrow 2005). Globalization processes include networks of diplomatic ties and treaties, formal and informal trade and economic links, international economic aid and agreements, and non-governmental organizations and transnational advocacy networks that coordinate activities in multiple regions simultaneously.
By applying a global perspective here I theorize about the dynamics of forces that have repercussions across global, state, and local levels. Such forces exert pressure on political actors through economic trade networks, diplomatic ties, military interventions, and/or ideological/cultural institutions. World system theorists once proposed quite similar notions (see Wallerstein 1976; Boswell and Dixon 1990). For instance, world system perspectives focus on the role of stratification of different territorial regions as a single force. Although the world system approach is useful to some kinds of analyses of economic cycles (Arrighi and Silver 1999), one of its shortcomings is its tendency to slight important country or cultural variations and contexts that also constrain and empower nation-states and actors (Tarrow 2001). Because of this limitation, the theory cannot explain differences in form and variation in goals, magnitude of violence, success, and other outcomes within world system categories. To counter this tendency, I build on recent work on transnational social movements, politics, and activism (e.g., Risse-Kappen 1995; J. Smith, Chatfield, and Pagnucco 1997; Keck and Sikkink 1998; Gurowitz 1999; O'Brien et al. 2000; della Porta and Tarrow 2005), by including empirical analyses of organizational, state, and global processes, in an effort to identify the mechanisms that shape different paths of ethnic mobilization. Globalization also includes transnational diffusion processes, which result in the ability of events occurring in one country to affect their distant as well as proximate neighbors (e.g., see J. Smith 2004).
Globalization has taken on a number of different meanings, including (1) actions by non-state actors (especially non-governmental organizations and social movement actors) who organize across borders (Boli and Thomas 1999); (2) the diffusion of specific social movement organizations (e.g., the peace movement, the anti-globalization movement, the environmental movement, the human rights movement) that have organized across country borders (O'Brien et al. 2000; Zafarullah and Habibur Rahman 2002; J. Smith 2004); (3) transnational networks of organizations that aggregate and coordinate country-level organizations (Keck and Sikkink 1998); (4) diplomatic or trade associations between two or more countries, as in protected trade treaties or economic regional associations (Keohane and Milner 1996); (5) international ties or associations, which activists mobilize support for or against (e.g., social movement activism against dams or underground mines); and (6) trends that include the global reach and spread of economic capitalism, transnational corporations, and ideological forces that support world capitalism that justify economic policies in a number of countries (e.g., outsourcing) (McMichael 2004), which various anti-globalization movements strongly oppose. Some scholars combine analysis of these forces into a single phenomenon (e.g., Barber 1996). Yet others argue persuasively that it is more useful to consider these as quite different dimensions. For empirical purposes, it seems crucial to distinguish the economic and political forces from social movement outcomes.
This research monograph offers and tests the argument that processes of globalization and internal features of states both incite ethnic mobilization (Figure 1.1, p. 27, displays the key processes). Ethnic mobilization is collective action based upon ethnic claims, protest, or intergroup hostility that makes reference to a group's demands based upon one or more cultural markers. Ethnic markers (such as skin pigmentation, language, religious distinctions, dialect, cultural practices, or regional or homeland identification) delineate a potential membership pool, which may or may not become activated.
Several research questions guide the analysis of the temporal and geographic diffusion of ethnic movements across a large set of countries. Can global-level factors help explain mobilization based upon ethnic identity, and can global processes help us understand which forms ethnic mobilization will take? Also, when and under what conditions will ethnic movements be relatively peaceful protests, and when will they turn violent? To answer these questions, I use information on the magnitude and occurrence of ethnic protest and conflict events in more than one hundred countries, followed over time since 1965. I use data from the Minorities at Risk and PANDA data sets on ethnic mobilization events to evaluate ideas about how international forces that integrate regions might influence ethnic movements. In doing so, I address some of the contemporary debates in the literature about the links among ethnicity, nationalism, and civil war.
Conventional Perspectives
Conventional treatments of ethnic mobilization find that inequality or the absence of democracy has systematically produced more ethnic conflict and protest. So Collier and Hoeffler (2004) argue that "greedy entrepreneurs" cause civil war (see also Brown 1996), while Fearon and Laitin (2003) find that poverty and rough terrain matter more to most forms of civil unrest, including ethnic ones. Petersen (2002) finds that resentment plays a role, whereas Horowitz (2001) finds that the presence of revenge motivations and strong emotions helps to predict when local feuds will end in deadly ethnic riots.
My analysis adds another layer of complexity to these arguments by examining the impact of key globalization processes. I do not claim that these intrasocietal forces are inconsequential; indeed, they undoubtedly shape the nature and timing of specific events and outbreaks of violence and protest. Rather, I am arguing that theories that emphasize internal factors capture only part of the story. Thus, my approach stresses both direct and indirect effects of measures that have impacts at the global level, in addition to the effects of poverty and inequality at the country level. Refuting my argument would imply that the globalization indicators are not systematically related to outbreaks of ethnic mobilization. Alternatively, supporting evidence must show that globalization forces have significant effects on ethnic movements, once internal features of ethnic inequality, poverty, and cultural diversity have been taken into account.
Prior empirical research has understated the possibility that ideological mechanisms underlie both nonviolent and violent ethnic mobilization. In applying a global perspective, I seek to redirect attention to transnational organizations that have encouraged widespread acceptance of ideologies of human rights and equality. My framework emphasizes the importance of diffusion of a worldwide human rights ideology, as it has been carried to remote regions by organizations that have established local connections in many countries.
In exploring these theoretical and methodological issues, my aim is to move the discussion about ethnic mobilization beyond discussions of intranational characteristics that spawn ethnic movements, by systematically analyzing the causes of movements that have roots in processes associated with world integration. This global perspective has proven extremely useful in the analysis of economics and international trade (e.g., Keohane and Nye 1972; Keohane and Milner 1996), international relations (Krasner 2001; Tarrow 2001), human rights (Risse-Kappen 1995; Gurowitz 1999), social movements and voluntary associations (Frank and McEneaney 1999; O'Brien et al. 2000; Schofer and Fourcade-Gourinchas 2001; J. Smith 2004; Khagram, Riker, and Sikkink 2002; Khagram 2004; Sikkink 2005), and international conflict (Hegre et al. 2003). My purpose here is to understand how a global perspective provides new insights on why different forms of ethnic mobilization might appear in different settings and historical periods.
World Integration and Ethnic Mobilization
The inclusion of arguments about the interplay between global and state-level forces in our analysis gives us more leverage over an increasingly interconnected world in which global forces affect internal politics. Economic and political crises that once affected only local areas now have repercussions in vastly different and formerly unconnected regions and states. Since the advent of the modern media, civil wars, terrorist acts, and acts by ethnic social movements have produced reactions across national borders. It seems reasonable to carry the implications of this fact one step further, to consider whether integrative processes have specific, centrifugal consequences for ethnic politics. Put differently, I first explore whether the magnitude of ethnic and nationalist movements varies systematically with integration into the world system.
Taking an international perspective helps clarify how economic interdependence among states may also foster rising ethnic subnational movements. Regional associations such as the EU, OPEC, NATO, and other supranational organizations promote interstate migration and decrease reliance of regions within states on the military and economic power of the nation-state. Multistate organizations also provide an audience for insurgent groups demanding new sovereignty rights (Olzak and Nagel 1986; Koopmans and Statham 1999, 2000). In this view, the growing network of international economic relations, exemplified by multinational corporations, growing trade and foreign investment, and supranational economic associations, will continue to produce more large-scale ethnic movements.
My strategy here offers arguments about forces of globalization that produce inequality, competition, and mobilization. My argument holds that integration of a world economic and political system has encouraged ethnic fragmentation within states. It does so by (1) increasing access of formerly disadvantaged groups to political resources, thus creating new political opportunities for mobilization, and (2) increasing levels of economic inequality in peripheral countries, which increases the potential for competition and conflict among groups within these states. This in turn encourages groups to make demands for redress of injustices or inequalities within states based on ethnic identity. My argument further specifies that the process of integration of the world's states has varying effects on different sectors of the world system. Thus, my argument builds on prior work showing the impact of changing levels of economic and political access, but also considers various interaction effects between a country's position in the world system and its economic and political characteristics. The goal of this project is to uncover some of the global causes of ethnic mobilization, while trying to sort out those factors that shape ethnic and nationalist movements in different settings and in different time periods.
I present three arguments linking interdependence among states in the world economic and political system to internal sources of variation in rates of ethnic mobilization. First, I use world-systems inequality theory to suggest that patterns of ethnic violence ought to differ in peripheral and nonperipheral countries. In particular, I expect more ethnic violence (and more state repression) in countries that are most dependent on the world economic and diplomatic system. Peripheral countries are those that are dependent, economically, politically, and militarily, on more central and dominant countries. Dominance in the world system, though associated with wealth and democratic regimes, is not conceptually equivalent with these other characteristics. It refers specifically to the number and coherence of ties to the center of world economic and political activity.
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Excerpted from THE GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF RACIAL AND ETHNIC MOBILIZATIONby Susan Olzak Copyright © 2006 by Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. Excerpted by permission.
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