Modelling under Uncertainty 1986, Proceedings of the First INT Conference on Modelling Under Uncertainty held at the Fulmer Research Institute, Stoke Poges, Slough, 16-18 April 1986. - Rilegato

Jones, S. B.

Rilegato

ISBN 10: 0854981713 ISBN 13: 9780854981717

Casa editrice: CRC Press, 1986

Riassunto

The First International Conference on Modelling Under Uncertainty was held at the Fulmer Research Institute, Stoke Poges in April 1986. The organisers sought to draw together mathematical modellers, statisticians and decision makers from a wide variety of backgrounds. The participants examined and discussed the ways in which mathematical modellers can represent uncertain situations, and the 25 papers published in th Proceedings gives a thorough review of current expertise in this important field. Also included in these Proceddings are the abstracts of papers presented at the poster sessions of the conference, and summaries of the discussions after each paper. Mathematical modellers from a wide range of disciplines were represented at the conference, and topics covered in this volume range through subjects such as environmental and hydrological systems, the role of modelling in making decisions on civil nuclear power, theoretical studies of modelling and decision making and modelling problems occuring in management and business.

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Contenuti

Papers: Uncertainty and how to treat it (D G S Davies). To flare or not to flare? (J D Griffiths and J E Williams). Scenario planning as a basis for transport project appraisals (A D Pearman and J M Clavering). Uncertainty in the modelling of hydrological systems (P E O'Connell). Markov models of environmental systems (J N R Jeffers). The Sizewell decision - modelling under uncertainty in public (N Evans). Uncertainty analysis of a methodology for assessing the radiological consequences of severe accidents at nuclear facilities (M J Crick). Living with ignorance - flexibility and the case of civil nuclear power (D Collingridge). AUQ - Bayesian uncertainty analysis (D G S Davies and S B Jones). The qualitative treatment of uncertainty (R I Phelps). What tools to cope with uncertainty in the symbolic representation of knowledge? (J Legrand). The role of mathematics in modelling particularly under uncertainty (C S Sharma). Non-Boolean event algebras in the probabilistic description of classical boundary and initial-value problems (M Ingleby). Decision making under uncertainty - the divergence between theory and practice (S Hill). Modelling the swine flu decision (D Windsor). Decision approach to Arctic offshore development (P Bein). Decision-making for undergraduates (M Bedwell and I Trumper). The sensitivity approach to decision making under uncertainty - a decision theoretic foundation (H W Brachinger). Evaluation of energy investments by the sensitivity approach - a case study (R Schubert). A comparative study of Monte-Carlo simulation and Taylor series approaches to the derivation of uncertainty estimates - a case study on compact heat exchangers (C D Obray, C C Wright and G Iseli). Individual welfare in uncertain economic environments - ex ante and ex post choice and the selection of consumption stategy (L T Evans). A stochastic financial model of gold extraction from waste dump material (K A Yeomans and R J Turner). Probabilistic model of barge impact energy on the the Annacis East Bridge piers (P Bein). Modelling of uncertainty in an aircraft recognition system (S P Frampton, J P Marriette and J R Moon). Concluding remarks (D S G Davies) Abstracts of Poster Sessions: Decision quality on databse systems (R H Davis). Is there a chance for metrological statistics? (M Grabe). A statistically based validation scheme for one-dimensional water quality models (B Henderson-Sellers and J Pemberton). Combining uncertainties in the calculation of the risks of radiation-induced cancers for young people living in Seascale (C R Muirhead). System sensitivity in the mineral processing industry (D Simpson, V Voller and M Everett). Calibrating engineering design proceedure for aging materials such as wood (I Smith). Fuzzy decision aids using spreadsheets (E Stanton and E Williams). Author index.

Product Description

Book by Jones S B

Dettagli dell'edizione

• Editore: CRC Press
• Data di pubblicazione: 1986
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 0854981713
• ISBN 13: 9780854981717
• Rilegatura: Copertina rigida
• Numero edizione: 1
• Numero di pagine: 336
• Redattore: Davies D. G. S.
• Contatto del produttore: non disponibile
• Persona responsabile: non disponibile