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Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., "What If" statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities or future possibilities. Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. The ?rst two of these are somewhat counterintuitive and are easily ignored by analysts. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its "back-story"). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect their conclusion to the speci?c type of strategic assessment the counterfactual will be used to support: decision making under risk or decision making under uncertainty. Includes notes, glossary and references. Noel Hendrickson is Director of the Institute for National Security Analysis.
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