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Superforecasting, 9781847947154
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Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.
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Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Random House Books, 2016
ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. . Codice articolo 7719-9781847947154
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ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Condizione: New. What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This title shows that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Num Pages: 352 pages. BIC Classification: JFFR; JM. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational; (U) Tertiary Education (US: College). Dimension: 131 x 197 x 23. Weight in Grams: 248. 2016. 1st Edition. paperback. . . . . Codice articolo 9781847947154
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Condizione: New. What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This title shows that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Num Pages: 352 pages. BIC Classification: JFFR; JM. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational; (U) Tertiary Education (US: College). Dimension: 131 x 197 x 23. Weight in Grams: 248. 2016. 1st Edition. paperback. . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Codice articolo 9781847947154
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Random House Books, 1871
ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Superforecasting
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Paperback. Condizione: New. The international bestseller'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow_________________________What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life._________________________'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times. Codice articolo LU-9781847947154
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Codice articolo GOR007690297
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Random House Books, 1871
ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Random House Books, 1871
ISBN 10: 1847947158
ISBN 13: 9781847947154
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Condizione: Como nuevo. : En 'Superforecasting', Philip Tetlock y Dan Gardner nos ofrecen una obra maestra sobre la predicción, basada en décadas de investigación y los resultados de un torneo de pronóstico masivo financiado por el gobierno. El Good Judgment Project involucra a decenas de miles de personas comunes que se propusieron pronosticar eventos globales. Algunos de los voluntarios han demostrado ser asombrosamente buenos, superando otros puntos de referencia, competidores y mercados de predicción. Incluso han superado el juicio colectivo de los analistas de inteligencia con acceso a información clasificada. Son 'superpronosticadores'. En este libro innovador y accesible, Tetlock y Gardner nos muestran cómo podemos aprender de este grupo de élite. Nos muestran que un buen pronóstico no requiere computadoras potentes o métodos arcanos. Implica recopilar evidencia de una variedad de fuentes, pensar probabilísticamente, trabajar en equipos, mantener el puntaje y estar dispuesto a admitir errores y cambiar de rumbo. EAN: 9781847947154 Tipo: Libros Categoría: Tecnología|Ciencias|Negocios y Economía Título: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Autor: Philip Tetlock| Dan Gardner Editorial: RANDOM HOUSE UK Idioma: en Páginas: 352 Formato: tapa blanda. Codice articolo Happ-2025-07-23-b346d7fa
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Da: Rarewaves.com USA, London, LONDO, Regno Unito
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Paperback. Condizione: New. The international bestseller'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow_________________________What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life._________________________'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times. Codice articolo LU-9781847947154
Quantità: Più di 20 disponibili