Selling the Future: The Paradoxes of Predicting Global Politics - Rilegato

Colonomos, Ariel

Rilegato

ISBN 10: 1849045534 ISBN 13: 9781849045537

Casa editrice: C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd, 2016

Riassunto

*** Winner of the 2017 ISA Ethics Book Award 2017*** In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes 'wonks', scholars and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, so the relation between knowledge and power intensifies, above all the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. In his investigation of the paradoxes of fore--casting, Ariel Colonomos interrogates today's knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think tanks and rat--ing agencies. He explains why conservative and linear predictions prevail, and why the future, especially when linked to national interest, re--flects a systematic search for stability. The notion of a globalised world whose main characteristic is speed, and where predictions have accelerat--ing, self-fulfilling effects, is obsolete. Those who are supposed to know, reassure those who are supposed to act. Their preferences converge, and thus the industry of the future has a decelerating effect on world politics. These 'lords of knowledge' reinforce pre-existing beliefs, create expectations about the future, while obstructing its vision when - inevitably - it diverges from its orderly path.

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Recensione

'Since antiquity people have sought to predict. Indeed it is hard to imagine not doing so. In this learned and thoughtful treatment filled with insight and ideas, Ariel Colonomos takes us through how people and institutions have sought to predict, why they have done so, and what the implications are for our governments and societies.' --Robert Jervis, Professor of International Politics, Columbia University, and author of Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War

'Ariel Colonomos, operating in an oeuvre he has seemingly made his own, takes his reader on a historical tour of the prediction industry. From the ancient oracles of the streets of Athens, Jerusalem and Rome to the halls of power in Washington, DC, Colonomos demonstrates our enduring fascination with the future in a way that will engage any reader.' --Simon Reich, Professor in the Division of Global Affairs and Department of Political Science, Rutgers University

'Colonomos explores the uses and risks of anticipation in spheres as different as political consultancy groups in Washington, DC and financial rating agencies. He shows the limitations of the 'industry of the future' by describing how anticipations embedded in today's values and priorities fail to account for future changes in our values and priorities.' --Roberto Poli, UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Systems, University of Trento

L'autore

Ariel Colonomos is Senior Research Fellow, CERI/CNRS, Paris.

Dettagli dell'edizione

• Editore: C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd
• Data di pubblicazione: 2016
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 1849045534
• ISBN 13: 9781849045537
• Rilegatura: Copertina rigida
• Numero di pagine: 224
• Contatto del produttore: non disponibile
• Persona responsabile: Buchpark GmbH; gpsr@buchpark.de; ; Krügerweg 1; Trebbin; Brandenburg; 14959; Germania