Imagine a world without inflation: prices in the shops rising in some years but falling in others; pay rising by 2 or 3% in the good years, but static or falling in the bad ones; house prices as likely to fall as to rise; interest rates in the range 2-4%.
In the post-war period of producer power companies could push up prices and groups of workers could push up pay. Now, by contrast, both businesses and workers are tightly constrained. In the labour market, new labour-saving technology is cutting a swathe through the world of work, and in many countries the power of unions has collapsed. Meanwhile, companies are at the mercy of competitive forces unleashed by new technologies, consumer power and the rise of dynamic countries in Asia and Latin America.
The result is that in today's conditions, slack demand will produce falling prices. The Japanese call it "price destruction". There the authorities are kept awake at night, not by fear of resurgent inflation, but rather by fear of a collapse into deflation. In Europe and North America, however, the monetary authorities are still paranoid about inflation, despite the evidence of their eyes and ears. Accordingly, they set interest rates at too high a level and thus risk provoking a slump. Their attitude represents the triumph of fear over experience.
Roger Bootle's readable and stimulating book is devoted to the consequences of the zero era for the housing market, for the world of investment, for consumers and for business.
Lambasting the conventional wisdom in economics, the book concludes that the zero era holds out both great promise and great peril. On the positive side, there are the advantages of lower interest rates and the clarity brought by the end of the confusion created by inflation. But on the negative side, when the system is riddled with debt and unprepared for anything except prices continually rising, there is the danger of deflation.
Le informazioni nella sezione "Riassunto" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.
Roger Bootle is Chief Economist of the HSBC Group, the parent of Midland Bank, and is also a Visiting Professor at Manchester Business School.
Le informazioni nella sezione "Su questo libro" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.
Da: WorldofBooks, Goring-By-Sea, WS, Regno Unito
Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. The Western world is in the grip of overwhelming forces which are transforming the economic and business landscape and the lives of ordinary people. We are witnessing the death of perpetual inflation and the beginning of the "zero era". Imagine a world without inflation: prices in the shops rising in some years, but falling in others; pay rising by two or three per cent in the good years, but static or falling in the bad ones; house prices as likely to fall as to rise; and interest rates in the range of two to four per cent. A purely imaginary world? No. This is the way things were most of the time before the onset of perpetual inflation in the years after World War II - and it is the world we are returning to. In the zero era: house prices will do nothing more than creep up and in many years will fall; the "low" levels of housing turnover registered recently will become normal; annual pay rises will no longer be automatic; consumers will be extremely price-sensitive; business pricing will move from "cost-plus" to "price-minus"; both consumers and businesses will have to learn that most prices may go up or down, and some will only ever go down, in contrast to the last 60 years when prices only went up; antiques and works of art will cease to be viewed as speculative investments, and return to being viewed on their intrinsic merits; interest rates, both short and long, will have to fall to levels unseen for a generation; the transition to very low interest rates will bring big profits to bond-holders, but the financial markets will be unstable and there may be financial panics prompted by high debt levels. This volume examines the consequences of the zero era for the housing market, for the world of investment, for consumers and for business. Lambasting the conventional wisdom in economics, this book concludes that the zero era holds out both great promise and great peril. On the positive side, there are the advantages of lower interest rates and the clarity brought by the end of the confusion created by inflation. On the negative side, when the system is riddled with debt and uprepared for anything except prices continually rising, there is the danger of deflation. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. Codice articolo GOR005208628
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Da: WorldofBooks, Goring-By-Sea, WS, Regno Unito
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Da: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, U.S.A.
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Da: Better World Books Ltd, Dunfermline, Regno Unito
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Da: Bahamut Media, Reading, Regno Unito
Condizione: Very Good. Shipped within 24 hours from our UK warehouse. Clean, undamaged book with no damage to pages and minimal wear to the cover. Spine still tight, in very good condition. Remember if you are not happy, you are covered by our 100% money back guarantee. Codice articolo 6545-9781857881455
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