Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science

Cooke, Roger M.

ISBN 10: 0195064658 / ISBN 13: 9780195064650

Editore: Oxford Univ Pr on Demand, 1991

Riguardo questo articolo

336 pages. 9.75x6.75x1.50 inches. In Stock.

Codice articolo x-0195064658

Dati bibliografici

• Titolo: Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science
• Editore: Oxford Univ Pr on Demand
• Data di pubblicazione: 1991
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 0195064658
• ISBN 13: 9780195064650
• Rilegatura: Hardcover
• Condizione: Brand New

Descrizione articolo

Riassunto

This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.

Cooke considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Recensione

`so clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limmitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended.'New Scientist

`valuable and important book' Isaac Levi, Columbia University

`clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended.' New Scientist