Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway

Dan Gardner

741 valutazioni di Goodreads

Lingua: inglese

Editore: Emblem Editions, 2011

0771035136 / 9780771035135

Da: World of Books Inc, Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.World of Books Inc

Venditore con 2 stelle

Venditore AbeBooks dal 23 marzo 2026

Visualizza gli articoli di questo venditore
Brossura

Condizione: Usato - Buono

EUR 57,56

 Spedizione gratuita 
Spedito in U.S.A.

Quantità: 1 disponibili

Aggiungi al carrello
Resi gratuiti per 30 giorni

Descrizione dell’articolo da parte del venditore

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future -- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate -- and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Codice articolo CIN0771035136G

Titolo
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway
Autore
Dan Gardner
Editore
Emblem Editions
Anno di pubblicazione
2011
Condizione
Good
Rilegatura
Paperback
Lingua
inglese
ISBN 10
0771035136
ISBN 13
9780771035135

World of Books Inc

Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.

Venditore con 2 stelle

Venditore AbeBooks dal 23 marzo 2026

Tariffe di spedizione nazionale per U.S.A.

ArticoloDa 4 a 12 giorni lavorativiDa 3 a 6 giorni lavorativi
Primo articoloEUR 0,00EUR 9,42
I tempi di consegna sono stabiliti dai venditori e variano in base al corriere e al paese. Gli ordini che devono attraversare una dogana possono subire ritardi e spetta agli acquirenti pagare eventuali tariffe o dazi associati. I venditori possono contattarti in merito ad addebiti aggiuntivi dovuti a eventuali maggiorazioni dei costi di spedizione dei tuoi articoli.

Metodi di pagamento

  • Visa
  • Mastercard
  • American Express
  • Carte Bleue
  • Apple Pay
  • Google Pay

Descrizione dello Store

Founded in 2002, World of Books is a leading online destination for buying and selling both preloved and new books, committed to making sustainable reading accessible to all. With a mission to help people read more and waste less, World of Books offers a huge range of affordable, high-quality books — giving both new and preloved titles a second life. The company also operates World of Books – Sell Your Books, an easy-to-use platform that allows customers to trade in unwanted books for cash, helping to keep books in circulation while promoting sustainability. As a Certified B Corp, World of Books is driven by a vision to become the world’s largest and most sustainable dedicated online bookstore. The company measures its success through the positive environmental impact it creates, the value it provides to customers, and its ability to operate profitably while supporting its sustainable mission

Specializzazione

Second Hand - All Genre

Informazioni sull’azienda del venditore

SBYB, Inc.

900 Knell Road
Montgomery, IL U.S.A. 60538