The Great Power Competition Volume 5

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Implications for the Central Region addresses national security threats and strategic opportunities for the United States and its allies in the Middle East and Central Asia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recognizing that integrated deterrence is not constrained by geography or domain, this book focuses on the complex threats and challenges confronting U.S. national security and foreign policy in a post-Ukraine invasion environment. That is to say, what happens in Ukraine does not stay in Ukraine. It affects everyone from the region to the cyberspace domain to people on the other side of the world, due to changes in commodity prices.

Specifically, this volume explores how revised analyses of Russia may alter U.S. and allied strategies in a shifting international system and within the framing of strategic competition. Experts in this volume examine how the war in Ukraine will influence Russian strategy and foreign policy in the Middle East, Central Asia, and globally; what effect the Ukraine invasion could have on global and regional geopolitics and geoeconomics; and the United States’ ability to protect national interests in the Central Region. The reasons for this are multiple and complex.

In this volume, we explore many issues that have confounded security experts by asking questions such as: What happens after the Russian invasion? What lessons did the U.S., Ukraine, NATO, and the European Union learn about Russia? What lessons did Russia learn about itself and its military after the Ukraine invasion? What lessons did the U.S. learn in Afghanistan that apply to Ukraine? Why was the initial analysis of the Russian invasion so wrong? How has power shifted in the international system since the Ukraine invasion? How has the security environment shifted since the Ukraine invasion? For the U.S. to continue supporting its partners in the Middle East and Central Asia, it must anticipate what new opportunities will arise from Russia’s missteps in Ukraine. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Implications for the Central Region addresses these challenges and opportunities and informs policymakers on the changing contours of the Great Power Competition.

Dr. Adib Farhadi is an Assistant Professor and Faculty Director of the Executive Education Program at the University of South Florida. His research focuses on the intersection of geoeconomics, geopolitics, and religion & conflict, with a particular focus on the Great Power Competition in the "Silk Road" Central and South Asia (CASA) region. Dr. Farhadi also serves as the Editor-in-Chief of The Great Power Competition peer-reviewed book series and leads the Great Power Competition Initiative―a collaborative program between USF and the National Defense University Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies, aimed at providing a broader understanding of the geopolitical challenges facing the United States in the 21st Century.

Formerly Dr. Farhadi served in senior positions for Afghanistan and extensively advised the United States government and various other international organizations. He is a frequent presenter on religion, conflict & peacebuilding, greatpower competition, countering violent extremism (CVE), and geoeconomics of the CASA region. Dr. Farhadi earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Canberra, M.A. from New York University, and B.S. from East Carolina University.

Dr. Mark Grzegorzewski is an Assistant Professor of cybersecurity at Embry Riddle University-Daytona in the Security Studies and International Affairs Department. He is also an Army Cyber Institute Fellow and is affiliated with the Joint Special Operations University, the Irregular Warfare Center, and the National Intelligence University. His recent publications include: “911? We Have an Emergency: Cyberattacks On Emergency Response Systems,” "Cybersecurity and Strategic Deterrence: Changing Adversary’s Risk Versus Reward Calculations,” “In Search of Security: Understanding the Motives Behind Iran’s Cyber-Enabled Influence Campaigns,” “Why the United States Must Win the Artificial Intelligence Race,” "Technology Adoption in Unconventional Warfare,” and “Incorporating the Cyberspace Domain: How Russia And China Exploit Asymmetric Advantages in Great Power Competition.” Dr. Grzegorzewski worked for over 10 years in the Department of Defense, 7 of those years at U.S. Special Operations Command. He holds a Ph.D., M.A., and B.A. in Government from the University of South Florida, along with a graduate certificate in Globalization Studies.

Dr. Anthony Masys is Affiliate Associate Professor and former Director of Global Disaster Management, Humanitarian Assistance and Homeland Security. A former senior Air Force Officer, Dr. Masys has a B.Sc. in Physics and M.Sc. in Underwater Acoustics and Oceanography from the Royal Military College of Canada. Dr. Masys holds a Ph.D. from the University of Leicester. He is Editor in Chief for the Springer Publishing book series Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications and holds various advisory board positions with academic journals and books series.

Dr. Masys is Internationally Recognized Author, Speaker, and Facilitator and has held workshops on security, visual thinking, design thinking, and systems thinking in Europe, Canada, South America, West Africa, and Asia. He has published extensively in the domains of physics and the social sciences.

Dr. Masys is Visiting Professor at the International Centre for Policing and Security University of South Wales.