Excerpt from Impact of Schedule Estimation on Software Project Behavior

Schedule estimation of software development projects has historically been, and continues to be, a major difficulty associated with the management of software development. Research efforts attempting to develop better estimation tools need to address two important issues: first, whether a more accurate estimation tool is necessarily a better tool, and secondly, how to adequately measure the accuracy of a (new) estimation method.

Our objective in this paper is to address these two issues. A series of industry interviews and literature study culminated in the development of a system dynamics model of software development project management. The model served as a laboratory vehicle for conducting simulation experiments on the impact of schedule estimation on software project behavior. The study produced two interesting results: first, that a different estimate creates a different project. The important implication that follows from this is that (new) software estimation tools cannot be adequately judged on the basis of how accurately they can estimate historical projects. Secondly, that a more accurate estimate is not necessarily a better estimate.

Keywords: Software Project Management, Schedule Estimation, Programmer Behavior, Simulation Model, System Dynamics.

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