Integrated Macro-Micro-Modelling Under Rational Expectations : With an Application to Tariff Reform in Australia

Michael Malakellis

ISBN 10: 3790812749 / ISBN 13: 9783790812749

Editore: Physica, 2000

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nach der Bestellung gedruckt Neuware - Printed after ordering - This monograph is concerned with the formulation and implementation of ORANI-INT, an intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The aim is to bring together, in a balanced approach, theory and data for the purpose of developing a practical state-of-the-art tool for policy analysis. The modelling approach adopted is motivated by the recent trend in economy-wide modelling to combine the respective strengths of traditional CGE models and modern macroeconomic models. Traditional CGE models typically provide a dissagregate representation of the economy at a single point in time. Such models are useful for analysing issues involving the allocation of resources among the various agents identified at a particular point in time. Modern macroeconomic models, on the other hand, usually provide an aggregate representation of the economy over many points in time. Such models are useful for analysing issues involving the allocation of resources across time. A model that combines the strengths of static CGE models and modern macro-dynamic models is amenable to addressing a wide range of policy issues. To demonstrate this point ORANI-INT is used to analyse tariff reform.

Codice articolo 9783790812749

Dati bibliografici

• Titolo: Integrated Macro-Micro-Modelling Under Rational Expectations : With an Application to Tariff Reform in Australia
• Editore: Physica
• Data di pubblicazione: 2000
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 3790812749
• ISBN 13: 9783790812749
• Rilegatura: Taschenbuch
• Condizione: Neu
• Dimensioni: 235 L x 155 A x 17 P (millimetri) 235 millimetri di larghezza per 155 millimetri di altezza per 17 millimetri di profondità
• Peso: 452 grammi

Descrizione articolo

Riassunto

This book provides a comprehensive account of the theoretical structures, database, computation and application of ORANI-INT. ORANI-INT is a multi-period elaboration of ORANI, a well-known computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. The implications of assuming that expectations are model consistent are contrasted with those of the alternative assumption that expectations are static. A generic algorithm for solving a wide range of economic models is described in detail. The algorithm is portable because it is implemented in GEMPACK, a commercially available software package. The major application reported in the book addresses the issue whether tariff reform policies should be announced ahead of their implementation. Many of the multisectoral models used throughout the world are static. The methodology presented in the book demonstrates that such models can be easily embedded into an intertemporal framework.

Contenuti

Introduction: Scope and Purpose: Introduction.- State of the Art.- Contributions of this Book.- Organisation of the Remainder of this Book.- An Overview of ORANI-INT: Introduction.- Nomenclature of Intertemporal Modelling.- The Structure of ORANI-INT.- Chapter Summary.- The Theoretical Structure of ORANI-INT: Introduction.- Industry Behavior.- Final Demands.- Zero Pure Profits Conditions.- Market Clearing Conditions.- Miscellaneous Equations.- Chapter Summary.- Appendices: The Log-Linear Form of the ORANI-INT Equation System; The Intertemporal Budget Constraint; Alternative Investment Specifications, The Implications of the Irreversibility Constraint of Investment; A Note on Divisia Indexes.- Solution Method: Introduction.- Alternative Solution Methods.- The ORANI-INT Solution Algorithm.- Modelling Sign Constraints.- Chapter Summary.- Generating the Control Path Solution: Introduction.- Constructing an Intertemporal Base Solution.- The Control Scenarios.- Chapter Summary.- Appendix: The ORANI-13 Database.- ORANI-INT's Simulation Properties with and without Forward-Looking Behavior: Introduction.- An Overview of the Illustrative Experiments.- Interpretation of Results.- The Benchmark Experiment.- The Full Intertemporal Experiment.- The Surprise Experiment.- Chapter Summary.- Should Tariff Reductions be Announced?: Introduction.- Simulating the Tariff Reduction Strategies.- Simulation Results.- Summary and Conclusions.- Summary and Conclusions: Introduction.- Model Development.- Applications.- An Agenda for Future Research.- Final Comments.