Riassunto
This bookcontainsthe essence ofthepapersand the discussions from a twoweek longAdvanced Study Institute (ASI) held in September 1985. The idea ofhaving an ASIaboutthe topic ofIntelligent Decision Support (IDS) systems goes back to a NATO workshop on Human Error held at the Rockefeller Center in Bellagio, Italy, in September 1983 Ina way it goes even furtherback sincethe Bellagioworkshop continueda seriesof NATOASls and workshops on advanced human-machine systems thatstarted adecadeagoin 1976. The present ASI therefore represents neitherabeginning noranend, but is rather a snapshot ofthefrontiers of thinking about man-machinesystemsas they looked in 1985. One problem that was important in 1983, and which remains so today, was to improve the understanding of human decision making and behaviour in particularly demanding applications, such as thecontrol of complexindustrial processes. Oneway of tryingto solve this problemwasto organise a high-level meeting where the relevant different scientific disciplines could converge and interact. Consequently three of the participants in the Bellagio workshop- Erik Hollnagel, Giuseppe Mancini, and David Woods, supported by a technical programme committee consisting of Don Norman, Jens Rasmussen, James Reason, and GiuseppeVolta - undertook to prepare and direct such a meeting. During the initial discussions the topic of the meeting was defined to be the application of intelligent decision aidsin process environments, and this in turnbecamethe title of the ASI.
Contenuti
Recent Models of Uncertainty and Imprecision as a Basis for Decision Theory: Towards Less Normative Frameworks.- Decision Complexity and Information Measures.- The Use of Weak Information Structures in Risky Decisions.- Time and Decision.- Decision Making in Complex Systems.- Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts.- The Elicitation of Expert Knowledge.- New Views of Information Processing: Implications for Intelligent Decision Support Systems...- Expert Knowledge, its Acquisition and Elicitation in Developing Intelligent Tools for Process Control.- Procedural Thinking, Programming, and Computer Use.- Paradigms for Intelligent Decision Support.- A Framework for Cognitive Task Analysis in Systems Design.- Decision Models and the Design of Knowledge Based Systems.- Cognitive System Performance Analysis.- Technical Assistance to the Operator in Case of Incident: Some Lines of Thought.- Recurrent Errors in Process Environments: Some Implications for the Design of Intelligent Decision Support Systems.- Modelling Cognitive Activities: Human Limitations in Relation to Computer Aids.- Decision Demands and Task Requirements in Work Environments: What Can be Learnt From Human Operator Modelling.- Modelling Humans and Machines.- Architecture of Man-Machine Decision Making Systems.- Designing an Intelligent Information System Interface.- Skills, Displays and Decision Support.- Automated Fault Diagnosis.- Knowledge-Based Classification With Interactive Graphics.- Intelligent Decision Aids for Process Environments: An Expert System Approach.- A Model of Air Combat Decisions.- Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Technology: Foundations and Perspectives.- Human and Machine Knowledge in Intelligent Systems.- Panel I: Decision Theory.- Panel II: Systems Engineering.- Panel III: Cognitive Engineering.- Panel IV: Artificial Intelligence.- Afterthoughts.- Section 6: References.- Appendix A: Abstracts of Short Papers.- Appendix B: List of Participants.
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