Toward Interactive and Intelligent Decision Support Systems

In the past, technological as well as economic forces dominated the evolution of industrial structures: these factors have been treated extensively in numerous studies. However, another major factor which has begun to have a decisive influ­ ence on the performance of the chemical industry is technological risk and public and environmental health considerations, in particular those related to toxic and hazardous substances used in industrial production processes. The issues of con­ trolling process risk, waste streams, and potential environmental consequences of accidental or routine release of hazardous chemicals are rapidly gaining in impor­ tance vis CI vis narrow economic considerations, and are increasingly reflected in national and international legislation. In the context of several ongoing R&D projects aiming at the development of a new generation of tools for "intelligent" decision support, two related problem areas that have been identified are: (i) Structuring the industry or plant for the minimum cost of production as well as least risk - e.g., toxicity of chemicals involved. In this multi-criteria framework, we seek to resolve the conflict between industrial structure or plant design established by economic considerations and the one shaped by environmental concerns. This can be formulated as a design problem for nor­ mal production conditions. In section 3.1. and 3.2. an approach on how to deal with this problem at the industry and plant level is discussed.

I. Intelligent Decision Support Systems.- An Interactive Knowledge Support System with Imperfect Information: Toward a Microcomputer Implementation of ARIADNE.- Object Model for a Deep Knowledge System.- A Distributed Problem Solving Approach to Control Asynchronous and Concurrent Processes.- A Human-Friendly Interface System for Decision Support Based on Self-Organized Multi-Layered Knowledge Structures.- Intelligent Decision Support for Technology Assessment.- A Framework for Choosing the Most Appropriate Discrete Alternative Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Method in Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems.- The Intelligent Decision Support System: Synthesis of a Decision Support System and an Expert System.- A Decision-Support System for Systems Engineering and Management: The SEMS Experiment at NASA.- To Solve Discrete Multicriteria Decision Problems Based on Logic-Based Decision Support Systems.- MCDM: From ‘Stand-Alone’ Methods to Integrated and Intelligent DSS.- Development of a Diagnosis Analysis System for Ion Implanter.- A Multiple Criteria Algorithm for Automatic Layout of Data Flow Diagrams.- On the Method to Arrange and Use Expertise.- Intellectual Distributed Processing System Development.- Japanese-English Machine Translation System Implemented in the Personal Computer.- II. Utility and Risk Analysis.- Multiattribute Utility and Derived Utility.- Applications of Utility Theory in Artificial Intelligence Research.- Portfolio Risk Aversion and Weighted-Utility Theory.- Expected Utility with a Threshold Function.- Risk Management in a Hierarchical Multiobjective Framework.- A Land Use Model for Spatial Policy Analysis and Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Regional Development Planning.- Multiattribute Utility Modeling of Cardiac Health Effects from Carbon Monoxide Exposure.- III. Value Analysis and Intensity of Preference.- On a Measurable Value Function under Risk: A Descriptive Model of Preferences Resolving the Expected Utility Paradoxes.- Intensity of Preference.- Verifying Preference Separability for Additive Value Functions.- IV. Hierarchy Analysis and Weighting Methods.- The General Case of Dependence in Hierarchic Decision Theory.- The New Dynamic Priorities Model and an Analysis of China’s Energy Strategy for the Future.- Evaluation of Cardinal Utility Based on Weighted Paired-Comparisons.- Design of a Decision-Support Workstation System for Hierarchical Multiobjective Inventory Control.- A Rationale for Additive Decomposition in Multiattribute Utility Assessment.- An Approach to Preference Vector Derivation Using Geometric Least Square.- Assessing Weights by Means of Pairwise Comparisons.- Bias in Assessment of Attribute Weights.- V. Incomplete Information.- Bicriterion Decision-Making under Randomness and Worth of Perfect Information.- The Perspective of Possibilistic Models in Decision Making.- An Interactive Fuzzy Satisficing Method for Multiobjective Linear Fractional Programming Problems with Fuzzy Parameters.- Multicriteria Optimization Problems in Statistics.- VI. Group Decisions.- A Prototype Selection Committee Decision Analysis and Support Systems, SCDAS: Theoretical Background and Computer Implementation.- Scalarization, Optimality Conditions and Group Decision Making.- Two Aspects of Group Decision Support System Design.- Multi-Person Decision Support with Knowledge Base Systems.- Socio-Economic Interpretation of Multiple Agents Decision Making by Game Theory.- Microcomputer ― Based Games for the Purposes of Environmental Protection and Managemental Training.- Interactive Modeling and Gaming-Simulation for Group Decision Making.- Multiactor Decision Analysis for Regional Investment Allocation.- Appendices.- 1. Softwares in Computer Demonstration Session.- 2. List of Participants.- 3. Organization.- 4. List of Sponsors.