Introduction to Demographic Analysis

This book is the result of several years of experience in teaching principles and methods of demographic analysis at the Department of Demography of the University of Louvain. Chapters 1 and 2 deal with the basic principles and methods involved in the two approaches demographers usually take, i.e., cohort and period analysis. Chapters 3-6 are devoted to applying these principles and methods to the particular phenomena with which the demog­ rapher is especially concerned: mortality, nuptiality, natality, and spatial mobility. In order to maintain coherence, examples have been placed at the end of each major section instead of being dispersed throughout the text. This should enable the reader to grasp both the theory and the example as a whole, rather than envisaging the theory as a particular reply to a specific problem. Finally, each chapter ends with a list of references, to which is added a selection of major books and articles in population analysis drawn mainly from the American, British, and French demographic literature.

1 Basic Principles of Cohort Analysis.- 1.1. Fundamental Concepts.- 1.1.1. Event-Origin; Cohort.- 1.1.2. Bounds.- 1.1.3. Time References.- 1.1.4. Lexis Diagram.- 1.1.5. Durations.- 1.1.6. Related Problems.- 1.1.7. Examples.- 1.1.7.1. Lexis Diagram.- 1.1.7.2. Types of Ages.- 1.2. Basic Principles in the Absence of Disturbances.- 1.2.1. Renewable Events.- 1.2.1.1. Introduction.- 1.2.1.2. Average Intensity and Average Duration.- 1.2.1.3. Reduced Events.- 1.2.2. Nonrenewable Events.- 1.2.2.1. Introduction.- 1.2.2.2. Average Intensity.- 1.2.2.3. Average Duration.- 1.2.3. Other Characteristics.- 1.2.4. Probability of Attrition.- 1.2.5. Attrition Table.- 1.2.6. Probabilities between Completed Durations.- 1.2.7. Exposure Rates.- 1.2.8. Relations between Exposure Rates and Attrition Probabilities.- 1.2.9. Final Comments.- 1.2.10. Examples.- 1.2.10.1. A Cohort without Disturbances.- 1.2.10.2. Relations between Rates and Probabilities.- 1.3. Basic Principles in the Presence of Disturbances.- 1.3.1. Types of Demographic Processes.- 1.3.2. Absence of Population Exclusion.- 1.3.2.1. Renewable Events.- 1.3.2.2. Nonrenewable Events.- 1.3.2.3. Use of Census-Type Data.- 1.3.3. Phenomena Excluding Population from Observation.- 1.3.4. Final Comments.- 1.3.5. Examples.- 1.3.5.1. Attrition Probabilities.- 1.3.5.2. Exposure Rates.- 1.3.5.3. Reduced Events.- 1.3.5.4. Comparison of Results.- 1.4. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 2 Basic Principles of Period Analysis.- 2.1. The Double Purpose of Period Analysis.- 2.1.1. Population Structures.- 2.1.2. Standardization and Translation.- 2.2. The Standardization Approach and the Problem of Summary Indexes.- 2.2.1. Direct Standardization.- 2.2.2. Frequency Averaging.- 2.2.3. Principal Components Analysis.- 2.2.4. Crude Rates; Indirect Standardization.- 2.2.5. Double Standardization Techniques.- 2.3. The Translation Approach.- 2.3.1. The Fictitious Cohort Method.- 2.3.2. Distributional Distortion and Translation Models.- 2.3.3. The Identification Problem.- 2.4. Population Structures and Movement.- 2.4.1. Generalized Period Frequencies.- 2.4.2. Period Frequencies, Rates, and Reduced Events.- 2.5. Examples.- 2.5.1. Types of Rates.- 2.5.2. The Problem of Summary Indexes.- 2.5.3. Direct Standardization.- 2.5.4. Indirect Standardization.- 2.5.5. Distributional Distortion.- 2.5.6. The Population Pyramid.- 2.6. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 3 The Analysis of Mortality.- 3.1. Infant Mortality.- 3.1.1. The Infant Mortality “Rate”.- 3.1.2. Endogenous and Exogenous Infant Mortality…..- 3.1.3. Examples.- 3.1.3.1. Types of Infant Mortality “Rates”.- 3.1.3.2. Endogenous and Exogenous Infant Mortality.- 3.2. Period Measures of Mortality.- 3.2.1. The Standardization Approach.- 3.2.1.1. Crude Death “Rate”.- 3.2.1.2. Age-Sex-Specific Period Frequencies or Rates.- 3.2.1.3. Death Rates by Age Groups.- 3.2.1.4. Standardized Death Rates.- 3.2.1.5. Examples.- 3.2.2. The Translation Approach: The Period Life Table.- 3.2.2.1. The Life-Table Functions.- 3.2.2.2. Life-Table Functions for the Last Age Interval.- 3.2.2.3. Mortality by Cause of Death.- 3.2.2.4. Abridged Life Tables.- 3.2.2.5. Model Life Tables.- 3.2.2.6. Examples.- 3.3. Some Comments on Cohort Measures of Mortality.- 3.4. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 4 The Analysis of Nuptiality.- 4.1. Analysis Based on Statistics of Population Change.- 4.1.1. Period Analysis.- 4.1.1.1. Standardization.- 4.1.1.2. Translation.- 4.1.2. Cohort Analysis.- 4.1.2.1. FirstMarriage.- 4.1.2.2. Marriage Dissolution and Remarriage.- 4.1.3. Examples.- 4.1.3.1. The Period First Marriage Table.- 4.1.3.2. Period Reduced First Marriages.- 4.1.3.3. Average Number of Divorces per Couple.- 4.2. Analysis Based on Census-Type Data.- 4.2.1. Use of Retrospective Questions.- 4.2.2. Use of Population Structures by Marital Status.- 4.2.2.1. Proportions of Never-Married Persons.- 4.2.2.2. Proportions of Ever-Married Persons.- 4.2.3. Example.- 4.3. The “Marriage Market” Problem.- 4.4. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 5 The Analysis of Natality.- 5.1. Crude Measures of Natality.- 5.1.1. Natality and Fertility.- 5.1.2. Period Crude Birth “Rate”.- 5.1.3. Period General Fertility “Rate”.- 5.2. Age-Specific Fertility.- 5.2.1. Types of Age-Specific “Rates”.- 5.2.1.1. General, Legitimate, and Illegitimate “Rates”.- 5.2.1.2. “Rates” by Age and by Age Groups.- 5.2.1.3. “Rates” by Age and Birth Order.- 5.2.2. Age-Specific “Rates” in Cohort Analysis.- 5.2.2.1. Age-Specific General Fertility “Rates”.- 5.2.2.2. Census-Type Data on Births by Age of Mother.- 5.2.2.3. Legitimate and Illegitimate Fertility.- 5.2.3. Age-Specific “Rates” in Period Analysis.- 5.2.3.1. Standardization.- 5.2.3.2. Translation.- 5.2.4. Gross and Net Reproduction “Rates”.- 5.2.5. Indirect Standardization of Age-Specific Fertility.- 5.2.6. Examples.- 5.2.6.1. General, Legitimate, and Illegitimate “Rates”.- 5.2.6.2. Indirect Standardization of Fertility: Coale’sMethod.- 5.3. Marriage-Duration-SpecificFertility.- 5.3.1. Marriage-Duration-Specific Fertility “Rates”.- 5.3.1.1. Cohort Analysis.- 5.3.1.2. Period Analysis.- 5.3.2. Census-Type Data on Fertility by Marriage Duration.- 5.3.2.1. Children Ever-Born by Duration of Marriage.- 5.3.2.2. Children Ever-Born by Duration of Marriage and Age at Marriage.- 5.3.3. Examples.- 5.3.3.1. Parity Progression Ratios in a Marriage-Cohort, Computed from Vital Statistics.- 5.3.3.2. Parity Progression Ratios in a Marriage-Cohort, Computed from Census Data.- 5.3.3.3. Average Number of Children per Couple.- 5.4. Birth-Interval-Specific Fertility.- 5.4.1. Birth-Interval-Specific Fertility “Rates”.- 5.4.1.1. Cohort Analysis.- 5.4.1.2. Period Analysis.- 5.4.2. Census-Type Data on Birth Intervals.- 5.4.3. Examples.- 5.4.3.1. Birth Intervals and Duration of Marriage.- 5.4.3.2. Period Parity Progression Ratios.- 5.5. Measures of Natural Fertility and Contraceptive Effectiveness.- 5.5.1. Measures of Natural Fertility.- 5.5.1.1. Natural Fertility.- 5.5.1.2. Fecundability.- 5.5.1.3. Nonsusceptible Period.- 5.5.1.4. Fetal Mortality.- 5.5.1.5. Sterility.- 5.5.2. Measures of Contraceptive Effectiveness.- 5.5.2.1. Malthusian Fertility.- 5.5.2.2. Use-Effectiveness of Contraception.- 5.5.3. Examples.- 5.5.3.1. Monthly “Effective” Fecundabilities.- 5.5.3.2. Proportion of Sterile Couples.- 5.5.3.3. Malthusian and Non-Malthusian Fertility.- 5.5.3.4. Measures of Contraceptive Effectiveness.- 5.6. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 6 The Analysis of Migration.- 6.1. Time and Space in Migration Analysis.- 6.1.1. Introduction.- 6.1.2. Definitions.- 6.2. Spatial Demographic Accounting.- 6.3. Direct Estimation of Migration.- 6.3.1. The Population Register.- 6.3.2. TheCensus.- 6.3.3. Other Sources.- 6.4. Indirect Estimation of Migration.- 6.4.1. The Place of Birth Method.- 6.4.2. The Vital Statistics Method.- 6.4.3. The Probability of Survival or “Survival Ratio” Method.- 6.4.3.1. Forward, Reverse, and Average Methods.- 6.4.3.2. The Problem of the Temporal Distribution of Migration Flows.- 6.4.3.3. The Problem of Differential Mortality between Migrants and Nonmigrants.- 6.4.3.4. Estimation of the Probabilities of Survival.- 6.5. Intensity of Migration.- 6.5.1. The Migration Rate.- 6.5.2. The Multiregional Multiple-Decrement Life Table.- 6.5.3. Cohort Analysis: Intensity and Tempo.- 6.5.3.1. Direct Estimation.- 6.5.3.2. Indirect Estimation.- 6.6. Spatial Orientation of Migration.- 6.7. Efficiency of Migration.- 6.8. Examples.- 6.8.1. Direct Estimation of Migration.- 6.8.2. The Place of Birth Method.- 6.8.3. The Vital Statistics and Survival Ratio Methods.- 6.8.4. Intensity of Migration: Rates and Expected Numbers.- 6.8.5. Intensity of Migration: Rank of Migration.- 6.8.6. Spatial Orientation and Efficiency.- 6.9. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- Append.- Table A.1. Set of Coefficients for Ledermann’s Model Life Tables (BothSexes).- Table A.2. Schedules of Divorce by Duration of Marriage 269.- Table A.3. Standard Set of Ratios of Probabilities of Survival of Total Population (Ever-Married or Not) to Population Single at ExactAges.- Table A.4. Standard Marital Fertility Schedule of Hutterite Women (1921–1930).- Table A.5. Standard Schedule of Births by Duration of Marriage.- Table A.6. Standard Fertility Schedules by Birth Interval (for Low Fertility LF and High Fertility HF Populations).