The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk

Robin Pope

ISBN 10: 3540384723 / ISBN 13: 9783540384724

Editore: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Springer Berlin Heidelberg Nov 2006, 2006

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Neuware -The joint work of Robin Pope, Johannes Leitner and Ulrike Leopold- Wildburger presented in this little book makes a strong point for a new approach to decision making under risk. It emphasizes aspects of risk preferences largely neglected in the theoretical and experimental lite- ture. Before the outcome of a risky decision is known a decision maker may feel worries or thrills about what will happen at the end. It is c- vincingly argued that the anticipation of such ¿secondary satisfactions¿ is, and should be, an important in uence on the decision. The questi- naire data and the experiments support this view. The answers of participants in the questionnaires about the reasons for their decision are an important basis for the evaluation of the - periment. The evaluation of these questionnaires has led to impressive ndings. Like other commonly used research techniques, the analysis of introspective information in questionnaires is not absolutely reliable. Nevertheless it is an extremely valuable source of insight into moti- tional forces, insu ciently exploited in economics. It is not my task to give a preview of the book, but I would like to encourage the reader to discover the remarkable results of an unusual theoretical and experimental approach to decision making under risk. K¿ onigswinter, Germany, August 2006 Reinhard Selten Preface In this book we break new ground on why and how people decide on - surancecontracts,ando erafewinsightsonhowthecontextofterrorism may a ect such demand. Our ndings are suggestive also for decisions under risk in other situations.Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, 69121 Heidelberg 248 pp. Englisch.

Codice articolo 9783540384724

Dati bibliografici

• Titolo: The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk
• Editore: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Springer Berlin Heidelberg Nov 2006
• Data di pubblicazione: 2006
• Lingua: Inglese
• ISBN 10: 3540384723
• ISBN 13: 9783540384724
• Rilegatura: Taschenbuch
• Condizione: Neu

Descrizione articolo

Riassunto

This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory.

Recensione

From the reviews:

"While most approaches to risk ignore the time dimension, Pope, Leitner, and Leopold-Wildburger distinguish between primary and secondary satisfactions. ... The book may be suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, in addition to practitioners and researchers ... . It can serve to initiate researchers and students into experiments and how experimental results can serve to test and develop theories." (Kjell Hausken, Theory and Decision, Vol. 62, 2007)