Riassunto
There are quite a lot of recent books on the methodology of economics, but all proceed from one or more of the following three fundamental assumptions: 1) Meta-apriorism: it is a priori believed that the results of the philosophy of science of the past decades, associated with the names of Popper, Kuhn and Lakatos, yield conceptual frameworks that can be used to describe the product of the economist's endeavours. 2) Synchronism: it is believed that the inspection of a "theory" of economics, the presentation of some economic belief at a point in time, reveals its logical structure and ipso facto the "method" by which the "theory" is constructed. 3) CreduZity: it is believed that what economists themselves say on their own methods is true, or at least of primary relevance. In this book, I endeavour to show that these assumptions are false. First, the philosophies of science by Popper, Kuhn and Lakatos did not succeed in constructing a conceptual framework capable of describing theory development in economics. Secondly, this can only be seen as soon as not Zogic but history is taken to be the referee judging the adequacy of metatheories (diachronism). Thirdly the results of metaempiricaZ (not-meta-aprioristic), diachronic (not-synchronic) research reveals that even economists themselves turn out frequently to have inadequate metatheories upon which it is dangerous to rely (suspicion instead of credulity) .
Contenuti
1. Introduction for philosophers of science.- 2. On the cause of fruitless methodology (an introduction for economists).- 2.1. The problem of fruitless methodology.- 2.2. The cause of fruitless methodology.- 2.3. Two preliminary arguments in favour of a Principle of Suspicion.- 3. Aims and set-up of this study.- 3.1. Aim of this study.- 3.2. Set-up of this study.- A. Two central theses in the theory of international trade and their place in the economists’ world view.- A.1. The neoclassical economists’ world view: neoclassical foundations of economic analysis.- A.2. The effects of international trade through the economists’ spectacles: comparative statics.- A.3. Two central theses in the theory of international trade.- A.4. Why are the theorems “interesting”.- A.4.1. Internal explanations.- A.4.1.1. The classical theory of international trade.- A.4.1.2. The production function.- A.4.1.3. The production function, the classical problem, and the Heckscher-Ohlin solution.- A.4.1.4. Conclusion.- A.4.2. External explanations.- B. The emergence of interesting theorems.- B.1. Introduction.- B.2. The Stolper-Samuelson Exposition.- B.2.1. The S&S-exposition, Part I: The Heckscher-Ohlin explanatory ideal and results already achieved.- B.2.2. Neoclassical intermezzo I: mathematical marginalism and the introduction of a second product.- B.2.3. The Stolper-Samuelson exposition: Part II.- B.2.3.1. The index number problem.- B.2.3.2. The production structure once again: the box diagram.- B.2.3.3. The production possibility curve.- B.2.4. Neoclassical intermezzo II: why all this is “neoclassical”.- B.2.4.1. Demand structure : utility-function and indifference curves.- B.2.4.2. The neoclassical “General Equilibrium” FEA: a final characterization.- B.2.5. Finale: The S&S-exposition of the effects of international trade: the S&S-result.- B.3. Questions arising in connection with the S&S-exposition.- C. Economic “normal science” centred around interesting theorems.- C.1. Introduction.- C.2. Some central concepts in informal symbolism.- C.3. Examples of research centred around the S&S-theorem.- C.3.1. The Metzler-results.- C.3.2. Second example: the Koo-results.- C.3.3. Third example: The Södersten and Vind result.- C.4. Research centred around the factor price equalization theorem.- C.4.1. The emergence of the FPE-theorem in V222.- C.4.2. Problems of the FPE-theorem in V222.- C.4.2.1. No diversification cone.- C.4.2.2. More than one diversification cone.- C.4.3. Some examples of field extension with respect to the FPE-theorem.- C.4.4. Further weakening of conditions and alternative conditions results.- C.4.5. Some further examples of field extension with respect to FPE: m ? n.- C.5. Summary.- D. Consolidation: metatheory on theory structure and theory development in the Ohlin-Samuelson research programme.- E. The hypothesis of the plausibility strategy.- E.1. The “plausibility strategy”: a first approach.- E.2. Initial explanatory power of the hypothesis.- E.3. Elementary plausibility.- E.3.1. The forced hypothesis about the existence of a sixth characteristic of the Ohlin-Samuelson programme: an SEPC.- E.3.2. A taxonomy of elementary plausibilism.- E.3.2.1. Conditions plausibilism.- E.3.2.1.1. Conditions plausibilism I : special conditions.- E.3.2.1.2. Conditions plausibilism II: El-conditions.- E.3.2.1.3. Conditions plausibilism III: FEA-conditions.- E.3.2.2. Field plausibilism.- E.3.2.3. Consequence plausibilism.- E.4. SEPC, the enigma.- F. Problems of econometrics. The mutal independency thesis.- F.1. Identification problems.- F.2. Anchoring problems.- F.3. How these problems arise from the nature of theory development in the Ohlin-Samuelson programme.- F.4. The mutual independency thesis.- G. Conclusion: results and relevance.- G.1. Summary of the metatheory.- G.2. Some concluding remarks on the relationship between theory development and plausibilism.- G.3. Some beliefs about the generality of the metatheory.- G.3.1. From neoclassical theory of international trade to neoclassical theory structure and development in general.- G.3.2. Towards theory structure and theory development in economics?.- G.3.3. Conclusion about generalizability.- G.4. The merits and problems of other metatheories if applied to neoclassical general equilibrium research programmes.- G.4.1. The construction of a Meta-Philosophical Language.- G.4.2. Neoclassical theory structure and theory development restated in MPL.- G.4.3. The “Friedman controversy consensus” in MPL.- G.4.4. Carnapian inductive logic in MPL.- G.4.5. Popperian falsificationism in MPL.- G.4.6. Lakatosian “Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes” in MPL.- G.4.7. Kuhnian revolutionary and normal science.- G.4.8. Sneed’s approach to theories of mathematical physics.- G.4.9. Summary.- G.5. Vice, Virtue and Rationality.- H. Appendix: a scheme for formalization of the link between theory development and plausibilism.- I. Appendix: the irrefutability of the Samuelson-type meaningfull theorems.- J. Appendix: The Friedman controversy and its consensus.- K. Appendix: Ricardian versus neoclassical FEA.- L. References.- M. Index.
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