2008 - How Things Were

Since 2001: Gold up 239% & Oil up 267%

TIPS: Best to buy when the real yield being offered is over 2%. In Jan 08 it was 1.6%!

Private consumption in 2006: U.S. = $ 9 trillion (out of our 2006 GDP of $ 13T+) vs China's $ 1 Trillion

The U.S. had some 8 million companies with less than 100 employees.

The world consumption of aluminum is 100,000 tons a day.

In October 2007: The Russell 2000 Index was 24% in financial services!

Foreign Central Banks are recycling some $ 2 trillion into "Sovereign Country Funds" to convert U.S. treasury holdings into strategic assets!

Senior citizen's living sector: independent living communities, assisted living communities, nursing homes and continuing care retirement communities. The 11 REITS in the health care subsection have posted 22.8% annual average growth for the past 5 years. The Boomer wave will not hit for 10 or 20 years.

Amended 1099's: Since 2003, the number of amended forms has doubled to some 13% from the average of 5 to 8 percent. Schwab alone sends some 3 million 1099's.

Does your financial manger use rebalancing software?? Like 'iRebal'??

Typical Hedge Fund Organization: a quant fund, a commodities group, a long/short team, a private equity group, a distressed debt group which all means DIVERSIFICATION!

As an example of Public Sector retirement plan investments: There are 3.4 M Fed Govt employees in 'Thrift Savings Plan - TSP' which earned an average of 6.7% vs 1.6% in SS over past 16 years.

TSP has 2 fixed income and 3 equity index funds composed of:

2004 Return % of Funds

Gov Bonds 5.8% 43%
High Qual Bonds 7% 7%
S&P 500 12% 38%
SC 4500 11.8% 7%
Int MSC 6.% 5%

Teacher's Unions "reforms" are in their own interests - more spending, higher salaries, smaller class size, etc. with no evidence that these are important determinants in student learning. They oppose - no child left behind's performance measurements, school choice, charter schools, testing of teachers competence as threats to the status quo.

SS: Workers to elderly 1935: 41 to 1, 1950: 16 to 1, and 2004: 3 to 1. No concern about 'gambling' or Wall St. profiting. Teacher's have TIAA-CREF ($300B) Teacher Insurance & Annuity Assoc. - College Retirement Equities Fund. University & Foundation Endowments invested: 31% US equity, 18% Intl. Eqs, 14% Fixed, 5% cash and 32% alternate strategies. Calif has Calpers, a $140B public-employee pension fund also invested in equities. Life expectancy 1935: 62 yrs, 2004: 78 yrs. 1st baby boomer retires 2010 and SS benefits will exceed payroll tax revenue in 2018.

The arts do NO measurable good! Can raise test scores in non-arts way. Propaganda has moved to "enriching people's lives" by "expanding capacity for empathy", "creation of social bonds", and "Expression of communal meaning". Unfortunately there is no evidence that any of this occurs. In fact art can be divisive - Mapplethorpe, NAZI art, Communist art etc. The traditional 'high' arts: classical music, painting and sculpture, theater, dance, novels and poetry are being displaced by film, graphic design, photography, pop music and TV.

According to the Tax Foundation as of 2004, 55% of the public employee pension plans were invested in corporate equities. But deemed "risky" for individuals by Unions.

Audited Tax returns of people with incomes over $ 1,000,000: 2006 = 17,015 vs 2007 = 31,382.

Massachusetts has the 5th largest percentage of household millionaires @ 6.26% with 156,208 in a household population of 2,493,707. #1 New Jersey = 7.12%

Median new home price December 07 = $ 219,200 vs December 2006 = $ 244,700.

5Mar08 - Gold hits record $ 986.20 but below inflation adjusted $ 2,239.67 from Jan 1980.

Oil hits record $104.52, above its inflation adjusted 103.76 set in 1980.

Euro hits high against dollar @ 1.5305

Profit colleges charge as much as 10 times as much for an associates' degree as a local community college.

The poor's share is shrinking but the "pie" has grown enormously. Current GDP = $14T, 3 times 1970. Poor share 181B to 476B = poor incomes UP 36%!

*Households: 1970 = 71% married (3.14 persons) vs 2008 51% (2.57)

1970 = 17% one person household's vs today's 27%

The US has 103 operating nuclear reactors generating electricity. There is only one steel company in the world today that can cast the reactor vessels (the 42-foot, egg shaped container at the core of a reactor): Japan Steel Works.

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) uses historical date to estimate future returns, risk and correlations of different asset classes in order to maximize a portfolio's return for a given level of risk. (InvestmentNews - 10Mar080

Problems with Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT): Misleading 'return' data based the use of the period starting in 1926 showed an average nominal return for stocks of 10.2%. Going back to 1849, the average falls to 8.9%.

This is due to the 1926 start period having lower price-earnings ratios. The 10.9% figure used in MPT misleads the asset allocation program.

Investment returns do NOT follow normal distribution curves as MPT assumes.

Risk as measured by the mean variance of returns is understated.

MPT portfolios are too diversified and end up as indexed portfolios.

In a long term bear market it is difficult to find opportunities that will produce absolute returns.

A Secular bear market started in March 2000: We are approaching the 8th year of what has been historically a 13 year cycle.

From 1948 to 1999, the percentage of women in the work force climbed from 32.7% to 60%. In January 2008 it was down to 59.2%. Restaurant meals purchased per person in 2007 = 207 vs a peak of 211 in 2001. Meanwhile Americans prepared 861 meals at home in 2007 vs 817 in 2002 - NPD Group

On 13 March 2008, the DJIA swung nearly 340 points, the 12th time in 2008 where the index range exceeded 300 points.

12Mar08 Nominal peeks: Inflation adjusted = Gold's 21 Jan 1980 to $ 2,239.67. Silver's $ 48.70 of January 1980 to today's $ 132.13. Oil hit record $110.33.

In Germany, there were 500,000 employed in call centers = 1% of the work force.

In Jamaica, due to government involvement: in 2003, some 5,000 liters of milk was dumped daily whereas in 2007, only 14 million liters were produced domestically of the 140 million liters consumed.

In Germany, the cost of acquiring a degree in Philosophy is 67,500 euro.

2007: Medicare spending $ 367.5Billion or 13% of the fed budget and is growing 6.5% a year

17Mar08: European share prices fell to 2005 levels.

Goldman Sachs and the market (18Mar08): Outgoing Abby Joseph Cohen sees the S&P 500 at 1675 Dec 08. Her replacement David Kostin sees the S&P 500 down to 1160 and by Dec 08 @ 1380!

Of the 10 recessions since 1945, seven were accompanied by the above bear markets - down 20+%. As per above, these recessions began at the above P/ E ratios.

Student-Loans: Some 27 lenders have stopped providing loans due to unprofitability. The Federal Family Education Loans program (FFEL) will provide loans to some 8 million students and parents in the amount of $ 109 billion in the coming fiscal year.

From 1999 to 2008: the US stock market's S&P index was 1352.99 on 25Mar2008 vs 1362.80 in April 1999. After dividends and inflation, The S&P 500 has risen an average of 1.3% a year.

Natural Gas Resources in trillions of cuft: Russia 1,082, Iran 993, Qatar 895, Saudi 250, UAE 214, US 209

Business vs Government: Business incentives that force efficiency and cost controls are financial reward, competition and fear of extinction. All of these are missing in the public sector

Check public sector spending: inefficient operations, inflated overhead costs, poor administration, questionable procurement policies, and the usual fraud and abuse.

Employer total compensation cost per hour of work Dec 2007 - Per US Labor Department: Union wages/salary $ 22.34 + Total Benefits $ 13.75 = $ 36.09 vs

Nonunion w / s $ 18.24 + TB $ 7.05 = $ 25.29

In 2007, US food prices had their largest gain in 17 years - WSJ 1Apr08

Bush reduced capital gains tax rate to 15% in 2003. Capital gains realized were $ 269B in 2002 and $ 729 in 2006!

Total wealth held by the world's millionaires = $ 50 trillion.

World grain and oil seed production in 2007 was a record 2.5 billion tons but stocks fell by 39 million tons for the year.

March 2008: US consumer price index inflation = 4.3% and 6.4% in the producer price index!

California Public Employees Retirement System or CALPERS authorized as much as 3% of its $ 240 billion portfolio to commodities.

1Apr08 WSJ - Corn futures rise, Soybeans fall: Per Dept of Ag acreage release: Soybeans planting up 10% to 74.8 million acres while corn down 8% to 86 M acres.

1st quarter 2008: India -29.2%, China -26.8%, Germany -18.4%, US -10%

US Health Care Spending in 2006 = $ 2.1 trillion. Of this, hospital care was 32% or $ 648 billion. 33% of all Medicare spending was for the final two years of life for patients with chronic illnesses (including congestive heart failure, dementia and kidney failure).- national average $ 46,412.

US cropland price for average acre rose 13% in 2007 to $ 2,700 or double the $ 1,340 of 1998. Nebraskan corn belt acreage up 88% since 2003 to $ 1,425.

In 2007, the 50 million SS beneficiaries received $ 585 billion.

REITS: short interest a record 10.3%, some 6.1 points above the 4.2% short interest in the NY Stock Exchange

Stock market recoveries: The S&P 500 stock index rose 24% on average in the six months following 10 of the last 11 recessions - the exception was in 2001!

Recession: Judged by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research and commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP. Actually based on four monthly indicators: employment, industrial production, constant dollar income and wholesale-retail trade.

With only the 1990-92 recession exception - when the yield curve returns to normal - as it did in March 2008 - during a recession, it has invariably indicated that the economy is poised to resume expansion within a few months. The question - are we in a recession?

Trade deficit cured by cheaper dollar? In 2002, the Euro averaged 94.6 cents and our deficit with Germany was $ 36B. In 2007 Euro = $1.37 and deficit $45B. Same story with Canada; 2002 C$ = $.64 with a $ 50B deficit vs 2007 $C = $.93 and deficit of $64B.

Jobless rate: Between 1948 and 1983 it varied from 2.5% to more than 10%. In the last 10 years it has been between 4% and 7.5%. This moderation may be due to the shift from a volatile manufacturing economy to a more stable services economy.

Per the International Monetary Fund - in 2007, China was the biggest contributor to world growth with growth of 11% followed by India #2 and the US #3.

Buy and Hold: From 1985 to 2008, this NYSE listed stock beat Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway by over 450 basis points a year! The company: Bear Stearns

Memory lane: In 1980 gold was just under $900, DJIA was below 900 - lower than in 1966 and inflation was in the double digits as was interest on long government bonds.

Electronic trading dominated by speculators now classified as "noncommercial" and consisting of 3 groups: commodity funds (aggressive short term traders), hedge funds ((ultra-aggressive traders) and index funds (net long as a hedge against inflation). There is now an 80% correlation between what the noncommercial group is doing and the direction of the underlying market.

The bull run in commodities started in 2000 as the dollar came under pressure.

Open contract growth: Corn: Jan 05 - 645,000 to Jan 08 1.429M. Soybeans from 253K to 564K and wheat 315K to 642K.

American's debt on housing exceeds the actual equity of their homes. Year end 2007, home equity declined to 47.9% Some 8.8 million homeowners will have 0 or negative equity by April 2008

DJIA under Dems & Repubs presidents & congress: Dems (Gain per annum) up 7.2% vs Repub 3.8%. But After inflation: Dems 2.5% and Repubs 2%

Median price of a new home Dec 2007 $ 219,200 down 10.9% from 2006

Foreclosures in 2007 = 2.2M up 75% from 2006

Total US unemployment March 2008 = 7,800,000

Capital gain distributions expected to be a record $ 581bllion in 2007, up 39% from 2006's $ 418 billion. Mutual fund investors expected to pay a record $ 33.3 billion in taxes on CG's surpassing previous record of $ 31.3 billion in 2000.

US federal Budgets: 1989 = $ 1 T, 2002 = $ 2T and 2009 = $ 3T

Deficits: FY 2007 est $ 426B, actually $ 163B or 1.2% of GDP, 1/2 its average of the past 40 years.

Tax rates affect the amount of income reported.

SS: FY 2007 transferred some $ 80 B of surplus SS taxes to General Government expenses. That surplus is projected to drop to zero during the next ten years!

The US pays out $ 100 million every hour for imported oil!

The US consumes 87 million barrels of oil daily!

Emerging Markets: On 31Dec07 some $ 17B invested. In the first quarter 2008 some $ 1.85B was redeemed (11%) and the category lost 12%.

Stock and commodity cycles tend to have a reverse coincidence. Current commodity cycle started in 2000?

The world population living in cities is projected to grow from the current 50% to 75%.

51% of US electricity comes from coal.

US backed student loans this year 07/ 08 = $ 68.2Billion

Holding $ 2,436.5B US treasuries: Japan 586.6B (24.%), China 486.9B (20%), UK. 180.7B (7.4%) Brazil 146.6B (6%), Oil Exporters Algeria, Bahrain, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela 146.1B (6%)

The US will graduate some 1.5 million from college in May 2008

Digital information creation, capture and replication growth: 2006 = 173 billion gigabytes to 1,773 bgbytes. The rate is 60% annual growth! UP 10 times in 5 years

Economic reality: The 1980s "windfall Profits" tax on oil companies resulted in reduced domestic oil production and increased imports. Every time the capital gains tax has been raised, federal revenue from it has declined and every time it has been reduced, federal revenue has increased.

The combined oil consumption of India, China, Russia and the Middle East will surpass that of the US in 2008.

S&P500 weightings, 26May08 - WSJ

Financial Sector 16% Down 30% since Oct 07, vaporizing some $ 814 billion

Technology 16.4%, Peak in March 2000 at 34.9% to 13% in Oct 2002

Energy 15%, In the 1980's peak of 30%, March 2000 = 5%

Sell in May and go away??

Foreigners hold over $ 4 trillion US = 1/4 the value of all our public traded businesses, or 80% of our commercial real-estate or 7% of our estimated national wealth!

The rate of annual dollars spent in the US for gasoline went from $ 340 billion in 2007 to $ 450 billion in 2008.

Since 2002, the US dollar has dropped about 25% against the currencies of our major trading partners with another 15 to 20% required to correct our trade imbalances.

Canada's natural gas reserves in 1985 were 99.2 trillion cuft. In 2005 56.3 trillion cuft! Canada currently exports 50% of its gas to the US.

In 2000, commodity mutual funds and natural resources funds and exchange-traded funds held $ 5 billion vs 2008's $ 105 billion!

Since 2000, operating earnings for the S&P 500 are up 63%, dividend yields are up 86% and 10 year treasuries are down from 6.2% to 4%.

When the Fed has stopped cutting rates: the market has typically gone up 5% in the first 3 months and 12% after 6 months.

The past never fails to offer trustworthy guidance about what you should have done.

A carbon tax as a de facto consumption tax? Could be used to offset labor and capital taxes that discourage work and investment.

Current injection of light, sweet crude into the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is 60,000 barrels a day or 0.3% of US consumption. (June 2008). Only 10 million of the 87 million barrels the world produces daily is light, sweet! The US does not 'buy' reserve oil - the government gets 185,000 barrels of royalty oil from Gulf of Mexico leases which it sells and swaps the rest (mostly sour & heavy) for sweet.

The Altamount Pass, Calif wind farm has killed some 130,000 birds in the past 27 years including between 75 and 116 golden eagles

With the US planting more corn and thus less soy beans, Brazilian farmers are clearing more of the Amazonian rain forest to plant soy beans.

The 10 Republican inaugural years since 1925 averaged a 0.5% loss with only 3 positive. All but 1932 and 1940 have been positive for democrats.