Prediction Revisited : The Importance of Observation

Mark P Kritzman

ISBN 10: 1119895588 / ISBN 13: 9781119895589

Editore: Wiley Jun 2022, 2022

Neuware - A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of predictionIn Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance.The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction's reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers:\* Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics\* Insight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fields\* Colorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout history\* Mutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed withinWith its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past. Codice articolo 9781119895589

Riassunto:

A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of prediction

In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance.

The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers:

• Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics
• Insight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fields
• Colorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout history
• Mutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed within

With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past.

Informazioni sull?autore:

MEGAN CZASONIS is Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management Research at State Street Associates.

MARK KRITZMAN is a Founding Partner and CEO of Windham Capital Management. He is also a Founding Partner of State Street Associates and teaches a graduate course at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

DAVID TURKINGTON is Senior Managing Director and Head of State Street Associates.

Dati bibliografici

Titolo: Prediction Revisited : The Importance of ...
Casa editrice: Wiley Jun 2022
Data di pubblicazione: 2022
Legatura: Buch
Condizione: Neu