Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management: PSAM 7 - ESREL *04 (6 volume set)

A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.

Papers by Theme
SECTORS AND APPLICATION AREAS
Aviation and Aerospace
Aviation – Airplane Crash Risks
Analysis of the Risk of the Population due to Airplane Crashes Around Zürich Airport
Bienz A.F.
Airport Public Safety Zones: Part 1 - Risk Model Derivation
Davies P.A., Quinn D.J.
Airport Public Safety Zones: Part 2 - Risk Model Application
Davies P.A., Quinn D.J.
A new determination of air crash frequencies and its implications for operation permissions
Weidl T., Klein G.

Aviation - Air Traffic Applications
Automatic Dependent Surveillance in the Air Traffic System - a Probabilistic Approach
Navarrete M., Cugnasca P.
An Application of Monte Carlo Method for Estimating the Longitudinal Collision Risk of the NOPAC Route in an ADS Environment
Nagaoka S.
Human-Machine Simulation System for Safety Evaluation in Air Traffic Control
Inoue S., Furuta K.
An Evolutive Environment for Development of Free-Flight
Oliveira Í., Cugnasca P., Camargo J. Jr., Fonseca R., Silva J.

Maintenance and Optimisation in Aviation and Aerospace
Stochastic Process for Aeronautical Design and Maintenance Optimization
Sommerhalter B., Sauvage D.
Emergency in-service air fleet data analysis
Thiebault C., Sauvage D.
Maintenance Wire Risk Evaluation for Space Shuttle
Mulvihill R.J., Cockrell J.
New Methods of Solving Multidimensional Non-Linear Optimisation Problems-Application Thereof to Construct Air-Line Flight Schedules
Jazwinski J., Klimaszewski S., Zurek J., Gawrylczyk J.

International Space Station PRA
Strategic Decision-Making Utilizing Probabilistic Risk Assessments for the International Space Station Program
Perera J., Smith C.
The International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Fire Analysis, Sensitivity Studies for Critical Variables, and Necessary Areas of Additional Development
Heard A., Vitali R.
Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment study
Vitali R., Lutomski M.G.
PSA for Depressurization Hazards in ISS Module
Sato T., Takeuchi N., Seike T., Oga K., Takada S., Sato Y.

Space Systems Risk Assessment and Management
Recent Risk Management Initiatives at the European Space Agency – ESA Part 1
Preyssl C., Sarah M.-G.
Recent Risk Management Initiatives at the European Space Agency – ESA Part 2
Preyssl C., Sarah M.-G.
Improvement of Product Robustness by PRA Concept in JAXA
Tohara K., Yamane T.
The Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework - A Structured Multiphase Multi-level Modeling Approach for Large and Complex Engineered Systems
Hsu F., Railsback J.

Risk Assessment for Satellites and Other Space Applications
Application of PRA for Risk-Informed Decision-Making on a Space Station Payload
Paulos T., Flippen A.A.
Safety Analysis of Microgravity Science Glove-Box Using the ESA Risk Management Approach
Kim I.S., Khatib-Rahbar M., Oliefka L., Preyssl C.
Atmosphere Re-entry Management of BeppoSAX Satellite
Miozzo A., Ambrosetti S., Salvatori L., Mussoni G., Sforza C., Spaziante V.
TIMED Orbital Science Mission PRA Integration
Feldman K., Guarro S.

Advanced Space Systems and Safety Engineering Challenges
Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) During Conceptual Design for the NASA Orbital Space Plane (OSP)
Rogers J.H., Safie F.M., Stott J.E., Lo Y.
Launch Vehicle Accident Assessment Framework for Future NASA Nuclear Missions
Yau M., Motamed M., Cleary B., Shemanski T.
Safety Engineering on Alenia Spazio Contribution to Space Station Program
Ferrante M., Canepa G., Pesce C.
Difference of Concept between Space PRA and Nuclear PRA
Kojima S., Kohda T.

Risk Assessment for Space Transportation and Launch Vehicles
Launch Vehicle Development Risk Projection Methodology
Guarro S., Tomei E.
A Probabilistic Analysis of the "Infancy Problem" of Space Launch Vehicles
Paté-Cornell M.E., Guikema S.D.
Physics Based Risk Assessment of Launch Vehicles
Maggio G., Hark F., Sen D.

Chemical Process Industries
Risk Assessment in the Chemical Industry I
Development of Management of Change(MOC) Software for Small and Medium Sized Chemical Plants
Kim J.H., Lee J., Kim K., Kim Y., Baek J.
Risk Matrix as Tool for Risk Assessment in the Chemical Process Industries
Ruge B.
An Integrated Safety for Business Analyses of Process Plants
Reinders J.E.A., Kamperveen J.P.
A Practical Method for Reviewing Safety Studies of Process Plants
Papazoglou I.A., Giakoumatos I., Aneziris O.N.

Risk Assessment in the Chemical Industry II
A Quantitative Risk Analysis Model of Scenarios Characterised by Explosion Fragments and Missiles
Maschio G., Cambria D., Lisi R., Milazzo M.F.
Damage Assessment of Industrial Accidents by Frequency-Magnitude Curve
Hanayasu S., Sekine K.
Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis (IDDA): an Advanced Tool for Risk Analysis
Demichela M., Piccinini N.
Global assessment of the technological risks relative to the transport and the storage of chemical products
Defert R., Ruffin E.

Accident Experience and Modelling in the Chemical Industry
Recent accident frequency on fixed installations in France and in the EU
Dechy N., Descourriere S., Bouissou C.
Control of Major Accident Hazards and Performance Indicators: the case of Transmission Pipelines
Papadakis G.A., Spiekhout J., Wettig J.
The Estimation of Vulnerability in Domino Accidental Events
Antonioni G., Cozzani V., Gubinelli G., Spadoni G., Zanelli S.

Application of Risk Models and Methods in the Chemical Industry I
Development of Operator Decision Support System using HAZOP result
Suzuki K., Ishida M., Nojiri I.
Retrieval and reuse of design rationale for supporting safer plant activities
Shimada Y., Fuchino T.
The Nuclear Physics Gran Sasso National Laboratory in the Gran Sasso Highway Tunnel: the Safety Organisation and the Qualitative-Quantitative methods for Risk Evaluation
Tartaglia R., Tobia M., Giampaoli A.
Risk Mitigation on Ammonia and Methanol Primary Steam Reformers using Retrofitted Safety Instrumented Systems: A Comparative Cost-benefit, Risk-informed Study
Karydas D., Mahnken G.

Application of Risk Models and Methods in the Chemical Industry II
Shortcut models for the estimation of the consequences of a gas cloud explosion in industrial environment
Baldacci S., Andreis F., Lombardi A., Marotta F., Mossa Verre M.,Fineschi F.
A New Algorithm for Data Reconciliation, Gross Error and Leak Identification to Prevent Explosions in Gas Piping Network
Baldacci S., Hvala M.
Estimation of Damage to Equipment Caused by Blast Waves by Means of Fuzzy Sets
Salzano E., Cozzani V.
Probabilistic Procedure to Evaluate Integrity of Degraded Pipes
Roos E., Herter K.-H., Julisch P., Schuler X., Ringel M.

Application of Risk Models and Methods in the Chemical Industry III
Characterising the Impact of Toxic Emissions on Human Targets in the Proximity of an Industrial Site
Luccone L.G., Mazzarotta B., Silvetti B.
Early Detection of Gas Dispersion Accident through a Neural Network Based Expert System
Celso A., D'Urso D., Trapani N., Spampinato S.
A Model-Based Soft Sensor to Avoid Explosions in Direct Heaters Due to Skin Point Threshold Overtaking
Baldacci S., Hvala M.
Analysis of accidental scenarios and flammable liquid classes, according to the review of Metodo Speditivo
Tucci M., Giagnoni L., Cappelli I., Gavilli L., Mossa Verre M.

Civil Engineering / Structural Reliability
Bridges - Reliability Aspects
Robust Reliability-based Design Optimization of Suspension Bridges
Catallo L., Bontempi F., Biondini F., Frangopol D.M.
Handling Uncertainties in Optimal Design of Suspension Bridges with Special Emphasis on Loads
Sgambi L., Bontempi F., Biondini F., Frangopol D.M.
Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis of Improved Tubular Bridge Joints Considering Multiple Crack Initiation Sites
Walbridge S., Nussbaumer A.

Risk Management and Design of Structures
Functional, Structural and Human Related Safety Measures in Multiple Use of Space
Suddle S.I.
Applications of Risk Management in the Design and Construction of Infrastructure
Duijvestijn A.M.W. (Bart), Kuijper H.K.T., Voortman H.G.
Effectivity of Risk Management for Design & Construct Projects of Large Contractors
Vastert J.G., van Gelder P.H.A.J.M.
Modeling Consequences due to Failure of Extraordinary Structures
Faber M.H., Kübler O., Fontana M.

Fire Analyses and Structures
Fire prevention in underground works: software modelling applications
Fileppo E., Marmo L., Debernardi M.L., Demetri K., Pertusio R.
Fire Risk Analysis and Modelling of the Relevant Scenarios: towards a Performance Based Fire Engineering and Protection Approach
Fiorentini L., Rossini V., Coppola G., Ferrari A.
Rapid Assessment of the Consequences of Fire in Sub-surface Infrastructure
Voortman H.G., Duijverstijn A.M.W. (Bart), Nieuwenhuizen J.B.
Applications and Impacts of a Real Fire in a Residential Building for Analysis the Level of Risk for Life
Ficarella A., Lala R., Perago A., Laforgia D.

Civil Engineering - Methods and Models
Structural Reliability Assessment Based on Discrete Approximation
Elegbede C.
Modeling of Random Fatigue Crack Growth Lifetime
Zou X.
Methods for Reliability Parameters Estimation and Analysis Toolkit
Alzbutas R.
Calibration Study of Eurocodes
Holický M.

Civil Engineering - Reliability Methods and Stochastic Analysis
Application of a Sequential Life Testing with a Truncation Mechanism for an Underlying Three-Parameter Weibull Model
De Souza D.I. Jr.
Stochastic Analysis and Simulation for Seawall Engineering on Qiantang Estuary
Wang W., Jin W., Han Z., Yu T.
Adapting a Dynamic Reliability Model to Measurements using Bayesian Inference
Becker G., Camarinopoulos L., Kabranis D.
Reliability Analysis of Temperature Models According to Eurocodes
Markova J.

Structural Safety Issues
Loss-of-Life Modelling in Risk Acceptance Criteria
Lentz A., Rackwitz R.
Relating Lifetime Utility Objectives and Structural Safety
Maes M.A.
A Multicriteria Approach to Risk Analysis Part I: Framework
van Gelder P., Duckstein L., Parent E.
A Multicriteria Approach to Risk Analysis Part II: Application
van Gelder P., Duckstein L., Parent E.

Structural Reliability
Optimization Technique for Finding Probabilistic Critical Excitation
Ghodrat Amiri G., Ashtari P.
Methodological Approaches on Structural Durability Assessment
Kudzys A., Kvedaras A.K., Kliukas R.
Methods for fitting a 3-parameter Weibull distribution on fracture toughness data
Marquès M., Pérot N., Devictor N., Saliba B.
Determination of Load and Resistance Factors by Third Moment Approximation
Zhao Y.-G., Ang A.H.-S., Jin G.

Optimising Strategies for Inspection of Structures
Recent Advances in Risk Based Inspection Planning for Structures
Straub D., Faber M.H.
Evaluation of Risk Importance and Inspection Methods for Piping Segments
Kohriyama T., Uchida T., Yamashita M., Nishio M., Kondo K., Fukuda M., Hirano M.
Reliability Control of Coolant Measure System in RBMK-1500 Reactor Using Preventive Maintenance
Augutis J., Matuzas V., Uspuras E.
Optimal Inspection and Replacement Decisions for Multiple Failure Modes
Kallen M.J., van Noortwijk J.M.

QRA - Roads and Tunnels
The Dutch Model for the Quantitative Risk Analysis of Road Tunnels
Brussaard L.A., Kruiskamp M.M., Oude Essink M.P.
A method for the estimation of casualties caused by accidents in tunnels
Jonkman S.N.
Tunnel Safety: two Approaches to consider Risks in Freight Railway Tunnels
Rosmuller N., Ale B.
Three-Dimensional Individual and Group Risk Approach of Buildings above Roads and Railways during Exploitation
Suddle S.I.

External Threats to Structures
Statistical Resampling in Assessing External Threats to Structures
Vaidogas E.R.
Stochastic Prediction of Seismic Ground Motions Using Macro-Spatial Correlation Model
Takada T., Shimomura T.
Optimal Intensity Measures for the Characterization of the Ground Motion in Performance-Based Seismic Design
Ciampoli M., Giovenale P.
Probabilistic Performance Criteria for Tall Buildings Subjected to Wind
Diniz S., Iancovici M., Riley M., Simiu E.

The Environment and Sustainability Issues
External Costs and Accidents Risks
Quantification and tentative internalisation of energy external costs in the European Union
Rossetti di Valdalbero D.
External Costs from Severe Accidents in Non-nuclear Fuel Chains: Valuation of relevant end-points
Hunt A., Ortiz R., Markandya A.
Accident Risks in the Energy Sector: Comparison of Damage Indicators and External Costs
Hirschberg S., Burgherr P., Hunt A.
Severe Accidents in Fossil Energy Chains: Individual Chain Results and Aggregated Evaluations
Burgherr P., Hirschberg S.

Sustainability Assessment
A Multi-Criteria Approach for the Classification of EU Countries with Respect to their Progress Towards Sustainable Development
Diakoulaki D., Mavrotas G.
Social Assessment of Regional Energy Scenarios
Renn O.
An Integrated Decision-Support Tool for Sustainable Energy Supply
Hirschberg S., Dones R., Burgherr P., Heck T., Schenler W.
Assessing the Sustainability of Heavy Metal Emissions in Europe
Bachmann T.M., Droste-Franke B., Friedrich R.

Insurance and Energy Liabilities
Insurance Engineering
Karydas D.
Damage Compensation and Risk-Informed Regulation: Status and Trends in the EU
Kirchsteiger C.
Credibility in risk ass...