Riassunto
These volumes contain the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 4), held in New York City in September 98. The conference provided a forum for the presentation of innovative methods and applications of risk-based approaches to improve the design and operation of technological systems and processes from the economic and safety points of view. Papers reflect progress made on methods and applications in such areas as modeling and analysis of complex systems, human and organizational performance assessment, software reliability, data collection and analysis, expert judgement modeling and use, identification and assessment of various types of uncertainty, risk-informed regulatory and operational decision making, and public perception of risk. A diverse range of disciplines are represented including aerospace, nuclear, fossil fuels, chemical systems, marine technology, transportation, information technology, medical systems, environment, and defense.
Contenuti
From the Contents: Systems Modeling.- Safety and Reliability of Large Wind Turbines, Palle Christensen, Martin Winther-Jensen.- Analysis of Adaptive Multi-State Logic in Fault-Tolerant Systems, Piter Gaspar, Giza Szabs.- Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Wind Turbine Farms, B. Boesmans.- An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology - Safety Analysis of Fuel Cell Propulsion System for a 1,500 DWT Cargo Vessel-, Takeshi Matsuoka, Masayoshi Kondoh, Masayuki Terao.- Computer and Electronic Systems Risk and Reliability Safety Problems in Computer Systems, Joco Batista Camargo Junior, Jorge Rady de Almeida Junior.- Connection Availability Analysis in Communication Networks, Andrew M. Shooman.- Approaches and Obstacles to the Characterization of Risks from the Use of Digital Systems in Nuclear Power Plants, Robert L. Goble, Douglas Chapin.- Safety Aspects throughout a Lifecycle of Distributed Systems, Janusz Gsrski.- Manufacturing Reliability and Risk Reliability and Maintainability (R & M) - A Key Issue in Motorcar Industries, P. Kafka, H. Adrian.- Probabilistic Yield and Statistical Issues in Manufacturing of Advanced Microelectronics: Part I - Process Controls, A. Christou, A. Dimoulas.- Probabilistic Yield and Statistical Issues in Manufacturing of Advanced Microelectronics: Part II - Correlations, A. Christou, A. Dimoulas.- Cause and Fact Modeling as the Production Quality Management Method, Galina N. Smolnikova.- Case Study of Risk Analysis for Product Liability Prevention, Yoshifumi Shibata, Yoshinobu Sato.- Insights from Nuclear Plant PSAs 1 Application of PSA to the Day-to-Day Plant Operation, Amir Afzali, Eli Goldfeiz, Jim Fulford, Dave Bucheit, Ken Tuley.- Mochovce NPP Safety Measures to Enhance Operational Safety and Reliability, Ivan Cillik.- Results of Recent PSA Studies on Paks NPP, A. Bareith, E. Holls, S. Czaks, J. Nigicser.- PSA Applications in Cofrentes NPP, Joaquin Suarez, Mariano Fiol.- Human Reliability Methods in Analysis of Critical Situations 1 Application of a New Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA) at a Pressurized-Water Reactor, John A. Forester, Ken Kiper, Ann Ramey-Smith.- Human Factors Assessment for Highly Automated Systems: a Case Study of a Power Plant, P.C. Cacciabue, A. Carpignano, M. Piccin.- MERMOS: EDFs new Advanced HRA Method, C. Bieder, P. Le-Bot, E. Desmares, J.L. Bonnet, F. Cara.- MERMOS: New Issues on Human Failure in Emergency Operations of Nuclear Power Plants, E. Desmares, F. Cara, P. Le-Bot, C. Bieder, J.L. Bonnet.- Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Environmental Remediation Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: A Project Summary, Evaristo J. Bonano.- Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: Identification and Evaluation of Alternatives P. Salter, D. Smith, K. Peil, A. Ghassemi, S. Weisband.- Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: Deliberation, George E. Apostolakis, Susan E. Pickett.- Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: Stakeholder Participation and Integration, Stephanie G. Jennings.- Uncertainty Analysis - Techniques and Applications.- Sensitivity Analysis Methodologies and their Applications, T. Sxrensen, A. Saltelli.- An Advanced Mean Value Method for the Treatment of Uncertainties in Reliability Calculations, Giangiacomo Minak, Renzo Righini.- Uncertainty Analysis of a Transient with Elliptically Distributed Parameters, N. Dessars, J. Devooght.- Dempster-Shafer Theoretical Modeling for Reliable Monitoring Design under Uncertainty, Kenji Tanaka.- Common Cause Failures Analysis: Data and Insights. Some General Insights from the USNRC's Common Cause Failure Database, Dale Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh, Frances Marshall.- Recent Development of the ICDE Project, Lennart Carlsson, Gunnar Johanson, Wolfgang Werner.- Issues Related to Development of VVER Specific Data Base on CCFs, G. Tokmachev.- Common Cause Failure Susceptibilities at Nuclear Power Plants, Frances M. Marshall, Dale M. Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh.- Systems Modeling.- An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology - Evaluation of Component Cooling Water System for New Type Marine Reactor-, Takeshi Matsuoka, Nobuo Mitomo, Tsutao Hoshi.- System Structuring for Risk Analysis Using Object Oriented Methodology, Deniz K. Yanar.- An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology -A Reliability Analysis of Automatic Train Control System of Shinkansen in Japan-,Takeshi Matsuoka, Kenji Nakagawa.- A Method for Modeling Reliability of Mechanical Systems in the Automobile Industry, V. Louvet, A. Bracquemond, M.C. Suhner, M. Gabriel.- Advanced Applications of Risk Assessment Technology. Model-Based Safety Assessments, David D. Carlson, Todd R. Jones.- Preliminary Master Logic Diagram for ITER Operation, L.C. Cadwallader, N.P. Taylor, A.E. Poucet.- Extensive use of an Event Tree Model to Define the Reference Accident Sequences for ITER Plant, R.Caporali, T. Pinna, N.P. Taylor.- Discussion of Nuclear Explosive Operation Process Changes Generated by a Preliminary Hazard Assessment, David Orien, Stewart R. Fischer, Steven Clement.- Medical Systems Risk.- A Medical Event Reporting System in Transfusion Medicine: An Error Management Approach, James B. Battles, Harold S. Kaplan.- The Hazard Analysis Action Decision Table, a Means to Limit Unnecessary Change in a Medical Event Reporting System, Harold S. Kaplan, James B. Battles, S. Quay Mercer.- PSA-Based Decision Making. Prioritize Safety Upgrades for Reactors on the Basis of Risk Reduction and Costs, R.T. Islamov.- Applications of Simplified and of Detailed PSA Models, Martin Richner, Samuel Zimmermann, Shobha Rao, John Stetkar.- The Use of PSA in a License Renewal Process, M. van der Borst.- Concept of an Extended Application of PSAs in Regulatory Procedures, Cornelia Spitzer, Manfred Heermann.- Human Reliability Methods in Analysis of Critical Situations 2.- Human Error Criticality Analysis of Igniter Assembly Behavior, Fan-Jang Yu, Sheue-Ling Hwang, Yu-Hao Huang.- Some Advances in Operator Error and Operational Hazards Analysis for Space Systems, J. Robert Taylor.- A Reference Framework for the Development And Documentation of Human Reliability Analyses (HRAs) for External Events (Fire) PSA, Benito Gil, Javier Yllera.- Problems of Cognitive Error Quantification and Approaches for Solution, Oliver Strdter.- PSA Application to Maintenance and Testing 1.- Risk-Informed Activities of the B&W Owners Group, Stanley H. Levinson, Mark W. Averett, Robert S. Enzinna.- An Application of PSR Activities to the Integrated Operation and Maintenance System in the Fugen NPS, Yukihiro Iguchi, Takahisa Nakamura, Yoshio Nakamura, Masutake Sotsu.- Structural Components Maintenance Optimization using PSAs, D. Vasseur, F. ArdorPrevention of Dependent Failures in Spacecraft, Peter J. Rutledge, Ali Mosleh.- Using Stress-Strength Simulations to Characterize Common Cause, William M. Goble, Dr. A.C. Brombacher, Dr. J. V. Bukowski, Iwan, J.W.R.J van Beurden.- Uncertainty Considerations in Common Cause Failure Analysis, Dale M. Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh.- Consideration of Interpretation Uncertainties in the Determination of Common Cause Failure Probabilities, A. Kreuser, J. Peschke, C. Verstegen.- Systems Modeling 3.- Application of Probabilistic Methods in Analysis of Preclosure Design Basis Events for a Nuclear Waste Repository, D.D. Orvis, T.D. Dunn, D.W. Gwyn, J.A. Ziegler.- An Overview of Quantitative Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Propulsion Elements, Fayssal M. Safie.- An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology- Hazard and Operability Analyses of Olefin Plant-, Takeshi Matsuoka.- Treatment of Common Cause Failures in Risk Monitoring, H. Schoonakker, M. van der Borst.- PSA Application to In-Service Inspection. Estimation of Pipe Failure Rates from Service Experience to Support Risk Informed In-Service Inspection Programs,Thomas J. Mikschl, Karl N. Fleming.- Application of Risk-Informed Methods to Inservice Inspection (ISI) of Piping Systems, Nancy B. Closky, Richard L. Haessler, David Bucheit, Elizabeth A. Oswald, Amir Afzali.- Probabilistic Models for Predicting Piping Structural Reliability in the RCM-Method Called "OMF-Structures", S. Hugonnard-Bruyire, B. Virite, B. Villain, V. Venturini, P. Bryla.- Application of Markovian Technique to Modeling Influences of Inspection on Pipe Rupture Frequencies, Karl N. Fleming, Thomas J. Mikschl.- Modeling the Impact of Hardware Aging. Aging Risk Assessment Performed for a Two-Loop Westinghouse Plant: Part I - Methods and Approach, R. Niall, M. Hunt, Todd A. Hilsmeier, Jerry K. Barrett.- Aging Risk Assessment Performed for a Two-Loop Westinghouse Plant: Part II - Insights and Findings, R. Niall M. Hunt, Todd A. Hilsmeier, Jerry K. Barrett.- Experience Based Ageing Analysis of NPP Protection Automation, Kaisa Simola.- Study on Method to Optimize Maintenance Interval Reflecting Aging Effects, Hitoshi Muta, Masahiko Fujii, Masahiro Yamashita.- Application of Fuzzy Logic and Possibility Theory in Risk Analysis. The Use of Fuzzy Control System Methods for Characterizing Expert Judgment Uncertainty Distributions, Ronald E. Smith, Jane M. Booker, Thomas R. Bement, William J. Parkinson, Mary A. Meyer, Mohammad Jamshidi.- Using Genetic Algorithms in Possibilistic Expert Judgment Systems, Sandra A. Sandri, Claudio Correa, Paulo Malinski.- Imprecise Probabilities and Risk-Related Analysis, I.O. Kozin, E.B. Filimonov.- Fuzzy Logic: An Application to Uncertainty Evaluation in Risk Analysis of Hazardous Materials Transportation, S. Bonvicini, P. Leonelli, G. Spadoni.- Human Reliability Methods in Analysis of Critical Situations 3.- Integration of Human Reliability Analysis into the High Consequence Process, F. Kay Houghton, Jerome Morzinski.- Quantification Results from an Application of a New Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA) at a Pressurized-Water Reactor, Donnie W. Whitehead, Alan M. Kolaczkowski, Catherine M. Thompson.- HuRa! - A Prototype Expert System for Quant...
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