Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Name: Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them
Author: William T Ziemba, Mikhail Zhitlukhin, Sebastien Lleo
ISBN: 9789813222601

William T Ziemba, Mikhail Zhitlukhin, Sebastien Lleo

Lingua: inglese

Editore: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd, 2017

9813222603 / 9789813222601

Serie: Libro 13 di 19 - World Scientific Series In Finance

Rilegato
Nuovo

Visualizza tutti i dettagli

Da: Bill & Ben Books, Faringdon, Regno UnitoBill & Ben Books

Venditore con 5 stelle

Venditore AbeBooks dal 3 marzo 2025

Visualizza gli articoli di questo venditore

Rilegato

Condizione: Nuovo

EUR 65,37

EUR 12,10 spedizione

Spedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.

Quantità: 1 disponibile

Aggiungi al carrello

Resi gratuiti per 30 giorni

Lista dei preferitiCrea un desiderata per articoli simili

Descrizione dell’articolo da parte del venditore

'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authorsaEURO (TM) research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.…

Codice articolo 0062215

Contatta il venditore per questo articolo

Segnala questo articolo

Titolo: Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them
Autore: William T Ziemba, Mikhail Zhitlukhin, Sebastien Lleo
Editore: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
Anno di pubblicazione: 2017
Condizione: New
Rilegatura: Hardback
Lingua: inglese
ISBN 10: 9813222603
ISBN 13: 9789813222601
Serie: Libro 13 di 19: World Scientific Series In Finance

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

"Riassunto" può appartenere a un’altra edizione di questo titolo.

Bill & Ben Books

Faringdon, Regno Unito

Venditore con 5 stelle

Venditore AbeBooks dal 3 marzo 2025

Tariffe di spedizione da Regno Unito a U.S.A.

Articolo	Da 14 a 45 giorni lavorativi	Da 5 a 10 giorni lavorativi
Primo articolo	EUR 12,10	EUR 22,58

I tempi di consegna sono stabiliti dai venditori e variano in base al corriere e al paese. Gli ordini che devono attraversare una dogana possono subire ritardi e spetta agli acquirenti pagare eventuali tariffe o dazi associati. I venditori possono contattarti in merito ad addebiti aggiuntivi dovuti a eventuali maggiorazioni dei costi di spedizione dei tuoi articoli.

Metodi di pagamento

Descrizione dello Store

Oxfordshire UK booksellers of many years standing.

Specializzazione

New & second hand

Informazioni sull’azienda del venditore

Bill & Ben Books ltd

Manor Cottage, Great Coxwell
Faringdon, Regno Unito SN7 7NB

Name of business : Bill & Ben Books Ltd.
Form of legal entity : A Limited Company
Business address: Manor Cottage, Great Coxwell, Faringdon, Oxfordshire, SN7 7NB, UK.
Email address: orders@billandbenbooks.co.uk
Telephone number: 07974 923385
Registered in England & Wales No: 13019028
VAT Number: GB 376238277
Authorized representative of the company: Jake Pumphrey

Contatta il venditoreVisualizza gli articoli di questo venditoreVisita la vetrina del venditore

Condizioni di vendita

Bill & Ben Books Ltd

All books are shipped in New or Used condition as described in the listing. We post promptly, orders usually ship within 1-2 business days. We are happy to accept returns up to 30 days from purchase. Domestic Shipments are sent by Royal Mail, and International by Airmail. Please contact us directly if you wish to return an order.

Diritto di recesso

Se sei un consumatore puoi recedere dal contratto in conformità con quanto segue. Per Consumatore si intende qualsiasi persona fisica che agisce per scopi estranei alla propria attività commerciale, imprenditoriale, artigianale o professionale.

Informazioni sul diritto di recesso

Diritto legale di recesso

Hai il diritto di recedere dal presente contratto entro 14 giorni senza fornire alcuna motivazione.

Il periodo di recesso scade dopo 14 giorni dal giorno in cui tu o una terza parte, diversa dal vettore e da te indicata, acquisisce il possesso fisico dell'ultimo bene o dell'ultimo lotto o pezzo.

Per esercitare il diritto di recesso, compila e invia elettronicamente una dichiarazione esplicita sul nostro sito Web, alla voce “I miei acquisti” nella sezione “Mio account”. Ti comunicheremo senza indugio una conferma di ricezione di tale recesso su un supporto durevole (ad es. via e-mail).

Per rispettare il termine di recesso, è sufficiente inviare la comunicazione relativa all'esercizio del diritto di recesso prima della scadenza del periodo di recesso stesso.

Effetti del recesso

In caso di recesso dal presente contratto, ti rimborseremo tutti i pagamenti ricevuti, compresi i costi di spedizione (ad eccezione dei costi supplementari derivanti dalla tua eventuale scelta di un tipo di spedizione diverso dal tipo meno costoso di consegna standard da noi offerto).

Potremo effettuare una detrazione dal rimborso per la perdita di valore dei beni forniti, qualora tale perdita sia il risultato di una manipolazione non necessaria da parte tua.

Eseguiremo il rimborso senza indebito ritardo e non oltre 14 giorni dal giorno in cui saremo informati della tua decisione di recedere dal presente contratto.

Il rimborso sarà effettuato utilizzando lo stesso mezzo di pagamento da te usato per la transazione iniziale, salvo che tu non abbia espressamente concordato altrimenti; in ogni caso, non dovrai sostenere alcun costo quale conseguenza di tale rimborso.

Possiamo trattenere il rimborso finché non avremo ricevuto i beni oppure finché non avrai fornito la prova di averli rispediti, a seconda di quale condizione si verifichi per prima.

Dovrai rispedire i beni o consegnarli a Bill & Ben Books, Faringdon, Oxfordhire, United Kingdom, +44 1235833450, senza indebito ritardo e, in ogni caso, entro 14 giorni dal giorno in cui ci hai comunicato la tua volontà di recedere dal presente contratto. Il termine è rispettato se rispedisci i beni prima della scadenza del periodo di 14 giorni. I costi diretti della restituzione dei beni saranno a tuo carico. Sei responsabile solo della diminuzione del valore dei beni risultante da una manipolazione diversa da quella necessaria per stabilire la natura, le caratteristiche e il funzionamento dei beni stessi.

Eccezioni al diritto di recesso

Il diritto di recesso non si applica a:

La fornitura di giornali, periodici o riviste ad eccezione dei contratti di abbonamento; e
La fornitura di contenuto digitale non fornito su un supporto materiale (ad es. su un CD o DVD), se al momento dell'invio dell'ordine hai accettato l'inizio dell'esecuzione e hai riconosciuto che non avresti potuto recedere una volta iniziata l'esecuzione.

Condizioni di spedizione

Orders usually ship within 1-2 business days. Domestic Shipments are sent by Royal Mail, and International by Airmail. We are happy to accept returns upto 30 days from purchase. Please contact us directly if you wish to return an order

Privacy e sicurezza

Your data will not be used for any purpose other than the processing and fulfilling of orders placed on ABE books