A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking

This book is based on a number of systems concepts, of which the following are emphasized here: oThe interacting systems of society and the environment are dynamic and evolution­ ary oEvolution of these systems carries them through stages of differential stability and instability, continuity and discontinuity oAssociated with evolution and instability is structural change that is essentially irre­ versible oThe present is a stage of world transformation that may not have been equaled for decades or even centuries oPolicies and decisions must match the times, in the present case the stage of world transformation The time 11:59:59 PM, approximately, on December 31, 2000 has an impor­ tant symbolic meaning. It marks the end of a minute, the end of an hour, the end of a day, the end of a year, the end of a decade, the end of a century, and the end of a millennium. The time and date provide a convenient yardstick against which we can evaluate the evolution of our thinking and the adequacy of our assumptions, mental models, paradigms, and policies. Will the beginning tum out to be appropriately dif­ ferent from the end? We hope that this book is helpful in such evaluation. This is a new-paradigm book, which both presents and advances the new way of thinking about the systems of science, technology, society, economics, politics, and the environment, and actively calls for the replacement of the worn­ out cognitive/sociotechnical paradigm.

1. Policy Challenges in a World of Nonlinearity and Structural Change.- and Main Assumptions and Problem Sets.- New Thinking for New Times.- The Newtonian Paradigm.- The New Paradigm.- What is Policymaking?.- Policy Reality.- Cognitive/Emotional Models of Policymakers and Decisionmakers.- Do Policymakers and Decisionmakers Necessarily Think Systemically?.- Is Systems Thinking Easily Developed?.- A Simple Mathematical Model of Nonlinearity.- Structural Change the Kondratiev and Hegemonic Cycles/Structures and the Life Cycle of the Present Stage of World.- Civilization.- The Kondratiev Cycle/Structure.- The Hegemonic Cycle/Structure.- The Life Cycle of the Present Stage of World Civilization.- Let the Policy Fit the Time.- Limited, Incorrect, or Failed Past Policies.- Conclusions and Recommendations—Policy Guidance.- References.- 2. Policy in a World of Evolution, Learning, and Ignorance.- Application of Inappropriate “Scientific” Theories to the Human Domain.- Real Complexity and the Idea of Rational Policymaking and Decisionmaking Are Incompatible.- On the Deficiencies of Economic “Science”.- The Separation and Isolation of Expertise.- The Scientific Handling of Change, and Levels of Description.- The Mechanical and Organic Open-Systems Paradigms Further Contrasted.- Evolutionary Drive.- Positive-Feedback Traps.- Competition of Closely Similar Activities.- Applications for Policy Exploration: From Settlement To Finance.- Spatial Economics and Settlement Patterns.- Evolutionary Economics.- Management of Natural Resources.- Discussion.- References.- 3. Adaptive Control and Conflict Resolution for International Stability.- Getting from Here (1992) to There (2000).- Overview of International Stability and Conflict Resolution Issues.- Present Period Is One of Rapid World Change.- Changes from the Past Are Possible in the Future.- Methodology Needed for Constructive Change.- Clearer Understanding of International Stability Needed.- Peace/War/Peace Process Understanding Needed.- Different Value Systems and Bases for Judging Nations Exist.- Role of Closed-Loop Concepts in Steering Nations to the Future.- Adaptive and Predictive Aspects of Guiding Nations.- Roles of References, Constraints, Perceptions, and Ideology.- Conflict Resolution for Settling Disputes.- Education to Facilitate Change.- A Cooperative Security System.- Work Breakdown Structure of Activities.- Obstacles to Peace.- The Peace/War/Peace Process and Some of its Elements.- Frameworks.- International Stability and Peace.- What Is Peace?.- Negative Peace.- Stable Peace.- Unstable Peace.- Positive Peace.- Nation Block Diagrams.- Perceptions.- Peace/War/Peace Time (Activity) Cycle.- Normal, Alert, or Emergency Conditions of International Policymaking and Decision-Making.- Adaptive Control Features for International Relationships.- Basic Assumptions about the International System and Conflict.- International System Is Made Up of Sovereign States.- International Conflicts Are Inevitable.- There Are Organized Procedures for Resolving Conflicts.- Potential Areas for Conflict Needing Resolution Can Be Identified.- Measurement Means and Criteria for Monitoring Can Be Found.- Various Possible Alternative Actions Can Be Explored.- Incentives and Motivations for Peace Can Be Developed.- Elements of Conflict Resolution.- The Eight Elements in Order of Use.- Potential Areas for International Conflict.- Progress Toward International Stability and Peace.- Common Security Objectives.- Influence of the Past, Present, and Future on National Attitudes.- Decrease the Likelihood of War, Increase the Likelihood of Peace.- What is to be Done Now?.- Conclusions.- References.- 4. Field-Theoretic Framework for Systems Theory and Systems Thinking.- The Nature and History of Field Theory Applied to Nonliving and Living Systems.- Nonliving Systems.- Living Systems.- Alternative or Complementary Perspectives on.- Field Theory and on World Systems.- The Aftermath of Lewin’s Field Theory.- World Systems.- Synopsis and Interfacing of Current Systems Theories.- Stability Theories.- Synergetics.- Dissipative-Structure Theory.- Catastrophe Theory.- Cybernetics and System Dynamics.- Deterministic Chaos.- Field-Theoretic Principles.- Faith, Ideology, Science, and Religion.- The Acceptance of New Paradigms.- Some Comments on the Status Quo.- Guided Structural Change in the World System Field.- Are We Near One of the Great Bifurcation Points of History?.- Final Remarks.- References.- 5. School for Rulers.- Contemplating the Taboo: Rulers Must Learn.- Premises and Thesis.- Rulers Matter a Lot.- Rulers Must Know a Lot.- Nearly All Rulers Lack Essential Knowledge.- Rulers Need Schools.- Ideological and Structural Hurdles.- Ideological Hurdles.- Structural Hurdles.- Design of a School For Rulers.- Policy versus Politics.- On Professionalism.- Overall Design Approach.- Terms of Study.- Entrance Prerequisites.- Languages, Tools, and Literacy.- Base Disciplines.- Knowing, Understanding, and Outlooking Reality.- The Future Between Necessity, Contingency, Chance, and Choice.- Policymaking Realities and Pathologies.- Policy Analysis Methods and Techniques.- Grand Policy Thinking.- Value Analysis and Moral Reasoning.- The Ruler’s “I”.- Clinical Learning.- Rulership Equipment and Skills.- Back to Reality: Practical Recommendations.- Write Texts for Rulers and Prepare Other Self-learning Tools for Them.- Improve On-the-Job Learning.- Provide Intensive Workshops and Courses.- Grant Sabbaticals.- Epilogue.- References.- 6. Policy: Appearance and Reality.- Introduction: Overview of “Problems” and “Solutions”.- Concepts and Definitions of Policy.- Policy Compared to Strategy.- Distinctive Problems of Policy Formulation.- Conceptualization.- Construction of Adequate Policy Statements.- Critical Criteria.- Institutional Supports.- In Brief Summary.- A Systems-Theoretic Interpretation.- Systems Definitions of Policymaking and Strategic Planning.- Four World Hypotheses.- Limitations of Formism and Formal Rational Models.- Policy Expertise, and Rationality Revisited.- Challenges and Recommendations.- References.- 7. System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years.- Designing Managerial and Social Systems.- A New Education for Corporate and Government Leaders.- Modeling for What Purpose?.- Unifying Knowledge.- Enhancing Mental Models.- Small Models versus Large Models.- The System Dynamics Paradigm.- Endogenous Behavior.- Sources of Information.- Learning From Models.- Surprise Discoveries.- General Characteristics of Systems 229 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PUBLIC RESPONSES.- A New Basis for Pre-College Education.- References.- 8. Whole-System Concepts in Societal Transformation.- Signs of A Fundamental Transformation.- The Global Dilemmas.- Changing Values.- Shifting Basic Premises.- Nature of the Transformation.- Policies for Whole-System Transformation.- The Whole-System Nature of Global Problems.- Characteristics of the Evolving System.- Identifying Appropriate Policy Choices.- The Example of Policy Relating to Work.- Concluding Observations.- Arriving at Appropriate Policies.- References and Suggested Reading.- 9. Breaking out of the Systems Quandary.- The Systems Quandary.- On Systems Theory.- Systems Craft.- Critiques.- Summing Up.- Breaking Out.- On Theory: Develop Deeper Insights About Complex System Behavior.- On Praxis: Rethink the Task of the Systems Craft.- Systems and Communication.- Systems and Ethics.- Final Words.- References.- 10. Decision Management, Then and Now, 1790, 1890, and 1990: Selected Scenario Models.- Some Definitions and Limitations.- Definitions of Terms.- Limitations to Knowledge.- A Basic Decision-And-Command Management Model.- Decision-and-Command Management.- Further Definitions.- Mere Scenarios?.- Two Brief Scenario Models.- The Capital at Washington.- Deciding upon a Police Force for Japan.- Decisionmaking in the Gulf Crisis/War: Events of 1990–1991.- Historical Background.- Forms and Dimensions of Conflict.- Capability, Credibility, Relevance, and Legitimacy.- Spread of Involvement to Many Countries.- On the Nature of Leadership.- Further Entangling Relations.- The Environmental Dimension.- Policy and Strategic Limitations of the United States.- Iraqi Motives Are Varied, Complex.- A Standard View of Iraqi Motivations?.- Transcultural Political Error.- The Israel Factor.- The Religious-Archeological Factor.- How the Adversaries Manipulated Political Forces.- The Specter of Weapons of Mass Destruction.- The Terrorism Variable.- Fidelity of Model.- Tracing the Steps of the Model.- Once the Decision Was Taken.- Significance of the Gulf Episode.- Systemic Implications.- The Enigmatic Superweapons.- An Enigma Becomes Less Perplexing.- More Puzzling Questions from All Sides.- Were the Decisions Made Homogeneously?.- A Repetition of the Past.- The Future Role of the UN.- A Shift in Political Paradigm?.- Conclusions.- References.