Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

Thisvolume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in archaeological modeling.Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to the modeling process iscritical, as are strategies for minimizing, reconciling, or accommodating suchuncertainty. Included chapters provide unique perspectives on uncertainty inarchaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and methodologicalorientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various identification andmitigation techniques are discussed, in particular sensitivity analysis. Thechapters demonstrate that for archaeological modeling purposes, there is noquick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological model requires intensiveconsideration of uncertainty and specific applications for calibration andvalidation. As very few such techniques have been problematized in a systematicmanner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume aims toprovide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by distillingsome basic principles for model testing derived from insight gathered in thecase studies presented. Additionally, model applications and their attendantuncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and willappeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers. This volume will also be ofinterest to non-modeling archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty wheninterpreting the archaeological record is also a vital concern for thedevelopment of non-formal (or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.

Marieka Brouwer Burg (Ph.D. 2011Michigan State University) isLecturer of Anthropology in the Department of Anthropology at the University ofNew Hampshire, New Hampshire, USA. She is interested in the effects oflandscape evolution and climate change on human communities, as well asreconstructing decision processes and perceptions of landscape in the past. Sheuses GIS-based archaeological computational modeling to explore these processesin both Old and New World contexts. Her current research focuses on investigatingthe spatiotemporal dimensions of ancient Maya mobility and socioeconomicinteractions in the central Belize River Valley, Belize.

J.H.M. Peeters (Ph.D. 2007 University of Amsterdam) is Associate Professor of Prehistoric Archaeology at the Groningen Institute of Archaeology, University of Groningen.  Research interests include Hunter-Gatherer Archaeology and Ethnography; Landscape Archaeology; Lithic Technology; Computational Modeling; Site Formation Dynamics and Fractal Geometry.  Current research projects include Late Glacial and Holocene Hunter-Gatherer Landscape Use of the North Sea Basin; Mesolithic Lithic Technology; Hunter-Gatherer Pyro-Technology; Dynamics of Intra-Site Spatial Patterning.

William A. Lovis (Ph.D. 1973 MichiganState University) is Professor and Curator of Anthropology in the Department ofAnthropology and MSU Museum at Michigan State University, Michigan, USA. His researchinterests include Hunter-Gatherer Archaeology and Ethnography; The Transitionto Horticulture; Applied Theory, Analytic Methods and Research Design; Human-EnvironmentInteractions and Regional Taphonomy; Paleoenvironmental Change; Public Policyincluding Forensic Archaeology, Law Enforcement Training, and Repatriation; GreatLakes/Midwest and Europe. Current research projects include archaeological sitetaphonomy and preservation in the Lake Michigan coastal dunes, Mesolithicregional settlement and mobility in Yorkshire, northern England, and hemisphericclimate impacts on Great Lakes coastal dune evolution and activation cycling.