Titolo: Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?: An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions
Editore: Probabilistic Publishing
Data di pubblicazione: 2014
Lingua: Inglese
ISBN 10: 1941075010
ISBN 13: 9781941075012
Rilegatura: Brossura
Edizione: seconda edizione
Condizione: New

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Riassunto

Executives routinely make major decisions in the face of high uncertainty. In fact, managing risk and uncertainty is one of the key functions of any senior manager. Techniques for estimating the probabilities of multiple scenarios (and the impact of those scenarios) have existed for years, yet many of the men and women in executive positions do not understand how to use the results of these analyses appropriately.This book supplies that understanding in language that non-statisticians can understand. The emphasis is on the practical; real-life examples illustrate the key points throughout the book. Example topics include: why major projects are so often late and over budget, when to spend money on more information (and when not to), the benefits of a risk-neutral approach, psychological weaknesses humans have when dealing with uncertainty, and tools to use and traps to avoid.

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