Riassunto
This book presents the results of a research project which has been carried out in the Special Research Unit (Sonderforschungs bereich) 21 at Bonn University. It is a part of the current research on disaggregated econometric forecasting models with a fully integrated input-output system with variable input co efficients where prices are explained as dual variables of the underlying production model. A similar approach has already been used by Knut KUbler "Ein disaggregiertes Prognosesystem fUr die Bundesrepublik, die Unternehmenssektoren", Meisenheim am Glan, 1977. But KUbler assumed Cobb-Douglas production functions. Mean while a new approach has been suggested by Jorgenson and others, using more flexible forms of functions, e. g. the translog function as an approximation to any reasonable neo-classical production function, see Hudson and Jorgenson "US Energy Policy and Economic Growth, 1975 - 2000", Bell Journal of Economics and Management SCience, Vol. 5 (1974), page 461 ff. ~ Jorgenson and Fraumeni, "Substitution and Technical Change in Production", Discussion paper No. 752, Harvard Institute of Economic Research, Harvard University, Cambridge/Mass. (1 980) ~ Friede, "Investigation of Producer Behavior in the FRG using the Translog Price Function", Cambrigde/Mass. (1980). Krelle and Pallaschke "A General Demand System", Zeitschrift fUr Nationalokonomie 41 (1981), page 223 ff. suggested another approximation using a Taylor expansion of any reasonable demand system. Nakamura follows the lines of Jorgenson and his collaborators but extends them into new areas and reaches much better results.
Contenuti
1 Introduction.- 2 The Model.- 2.0 Introduction.- 2.1 The Basic Model.- 2.1.1 Technology.- 2.1.2 Behavior.- 2.1.3 Prices of Domestic Outputs.- 2.1.4 Input Coefficients.- 2.1.5 Remarks.- 2.2 The Deterministic Model I: General Formulation.- 2.2.1 Partition of Inputs.- 2.2.2 Separability as Further Assumption on Technology.- 2.2.3 Dual Implications of the Separability Assumption.- 2.2.4 Three Stage Optimization.- 2.2.5 Technical Change.- 2.2.6 Prices and Input Coefficients.- 2.2.7 Remarks.- 2.3 The Deterministic Model II: Model Specification.- 2.3.1 Sectoral Specification.- 2.3.2 Choice of Functional Forms.- 2.3.3 Specified Model and Its Implications.- 2.3.4 Remarks.- 2.3.5 A Note on the General Demand System of Krelle and Pallaschke and Its Relationships to the Demand System Used in the Model.- 2.4 The Econometric Model.- 2.4.1 The Stochastic Specification of the Model.- 2.4.2 The Estimation Procedure.- 2.4.3 Remarks.- 3 Empirical Results.- 3.0 Introduction.- 3.1 Data.- 3.2 Estimation Results and Their Implications.- 3.2.1 Price Aggregator Functions for Domestic Inputs and Imports.- 3.2.1.1 Initial Estimation Results.- 3.2.1.2 Integrability Conditions.- 3.2.1.3 Procedures of Reestimation.- 3.2.1.4 Implications of the Reestimated Parameters.- 3.2.2 Price Aggregator Functions for Material Inputs.- 3.2.2.1 Estimation Results.- 3.2.2.2 Integrability Conditions.- 3.2.2.3 Patterns of Substitution between Material Inputs.- 3.2.2.4 Biases of Technical Change in the Use of Material Inputs.- 3.2.2.5 Computation of $${\hat p_{mj}}$$.- 3.2.3 Price Aggregator Functions for Service Inputs.- 3.2.3.1 Estimation Results.- 3.2.3.2 Integrability Conditions.- 3.2.3.3 Patterns of Substitution Between Service Inputs.- 3.2.3.4 Biases of Technical Change in the Use of Service Inputs.- 3.2.3.5 Computation of $${\hat p_{sj}}$$.- 3.2.4 KLEMS Price Functions.- 3.2.4.1 Estimation Results.- 3.2.4.2 Integrability Conditions.- 3.2.4.3 Patterns of Substitution Between K,L,E,M,S.- 3.2.4.4 Biases of Technical Change for K,L,E,M,S.- 3.2.5 Equations for the Negative of the Rates of Technical Change.- 3.2.5.1 The Rates of Technical Change.- 3.2.5.2 Estimation Results.- 3.2.6 Overall Biases of Technical Change.- 3.3 Performance of the Models Interpolations.- 3.3.1 Test Results for Prices of Domestic Outputs.- 3.3.2 Test Results for Input Coefficients: Domestic Intermediate Inputs, Capital and Labor Services.- 3.3.3 Test Results for Input Coefficients: Imports.- 3.4 Simulation Experiments.- 3.4.1 Increase in a Single Import Price.- 3.4.2 Simultaneous Increase in Exogenous Variables.- 3.4.2.1 Increase in All Import Prices.- 3.4.2.2 Increase in Prices of All Labor Services.- 3.4.2.3 Increase in Prices of All Capital Services.- 3.4.2.4 Increase in the Rates of Indirect Taxes.- 3.4.2.5 Comparison of Effects of Exogenous Variables.- 4 Conclusion.- 5 References.
Le informazioni nella sezione "Su questo libro" possono far riferimento a edizioni diverse di questo titolo.
