Dealing with Complexity: An Introduction to the Theory and Application of Systems Science

With technological advance, the difficulties faced by decision makers and researchers become even more complex and hence more difficult to understand and manage. Traditional approaches have their limitations, particularly when dealing with issues that span many fields of endeavor. Fortunately there has emerged, particularly over the past four decades, the discipline of systems science, which provides a framework for dealing with such complexity. This book gives an account of the underlying theory of systems science and illustrates its applicability to a range of "real-world" problems. To gain an understanding of systems science and what motivates the systems scientist requires at least a reasonable degree ofliteracy and numeracy, a consequence of the interdisciplinary nature of the subject. The numerate content of this book, however, is almost entirely confined to Chapters 8 and 9. As a result, those who class themselves as nonnumerate are not continually confronted by equations that would, in some cases, prevent satisfactory comple- tion of the text. Nevertheless, it has not been possible to exclude totally all aspects of numerate thinking from the remaining chapters. It would be useful, therefore, for those who class themselves as nonnumerate to read initially the section of Chapter 8 entitled "Using Letters Instead of Numbers. " This provides sufficient material to enable the nonnumerate reader to deal with the small amount of quantitative material outside Chapters 8 and 9.

One. Systems: Origin and Evolution, Terms and Concepts.- 1.1. Introduction.- 1.2. The Origin and Evolution of Systems Science.- 1.3. Systems Terms and Concepts.- 1.3.1. Introduction.- 1.3.2. Terms and Concepts.- 1.4. Conclusion.- Problems.- Two. Systems and Complexity.- 2.1. Introduction.- 2.2. Coming to Grips with Complexity.- 2.2.1. Systems and People.- 2.2.2. Parts and Relationships, Notions and Perceptions.- 2.2.3. Nonlinearity, Asymmetry, and Nonholonomic Constraints.- 2.2.4. Hierarchy and Emergence.- 2.2.5. Aesthetic Measures—An Illustrative Example.- 2.3. Two-Dimensional Science.- 2.4. One Dimension beyond Three Ranges of Complexity.- 2.5. Conclusion.- Problems.- Three. Systems and Modeling I: Diagrams and Identification.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. Misuse and Abuse.- 3.3. System Diagrams.- 3.3.1. Graphs.- 3.3.2. Block Diagrams.- 3.3.3. Soft System Diagrams.- 3.4. Other Useful Diagrams.- 3.4.1. Unit Diagrams.- 3.4.2. Rich Pictures.- 3.4.3. Decision Flow Diagrams.- 3.4.4. Hierarchical Representations.- 3.5. Hard System Diagrams and Messy Situations.- 3.6. Element, Relationship, and Boundary Identification.- 3.6.1. Introduction.- 3.6.2. Data Filtering for Information Production.- 3.6.3. System Identification.- 3.7. Conclusion.- Problems.- Four. Systems and Measurement.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. The Nature of Measurement.- 4.2.1. Numerals, Numbers, and Other Symbols.- 4.2.2. Assignment.- 4.2.3. Rules.- 4.3. Scales of Measurement.- 4.3.1. Introduction.- 4.3.2. The Scales.- 4.4. Problems Associated with Measurement.- 4.4.1. Introduction.- 4.4.2. Content Validity.- 4.4.3. Empirical Validity.- 4.4.4. Construct Validity.- 4.4.5. The Experiential Approach.- 4.5. Conclusion.- Problems.- Five. Systems View of Management and the Organization.- 5.1. Introduction.- 5.2. Evolution of Management Theory.- 5.2.1. Introduction.- 5.2.2. Traditional Management Theory and Industrial Psychology.- 5.2.3. The Birth of Human Relations Theory.- 5.2.4. Sociotechnical Systems.- 5.2.5. Equilibrium Theories.- 5.2.6. Structural Functionalism.- 5.2.7. Open Systems.- 5.2.8. Empirical Studies.- 5.2.9. Contingency Theory.- 5.2.10. Summary.- 5.3. A Cybernetic View of Management and Organization Theory.- 5.3.1. Introduction.- 5.3.2. Three Schools of Thought.- 5.3.3. Cybernetics in the Three Schools of Thought.- 5.3.4. Summary.- 5.4. Administrative Management.- 5.4.1. Introduction.- 5.4.2. Planning.- 5.4.3. Organizing.- 5.4.4. Directing.- 5.4.5. Controlling.- 5.4.6. Summary.- 5.5. The Viable System Model: A Structuralist Alternative.- 5.5.1. Introduction.- 5.5.2. The Need for Change.- 5.5.3. The Model.- 5.5.4. Operationalizing the Model.- 5.5.5. The Chilean Experience.- 5.5.6. Summary.- 5.6. Management and Organizational Cybernetics.- 5.6.1. Introduction.- 5.6.2. Distinctions.- 5.6.3. The Cybernetic Model on Trial.- 5.6.4. Summary.- 5.7. The Interpretive Alternatives.- 5.7.1. Introduction.- 5.7.2. The Fundamental Tenets of the Paradigm.- 5.7.3. The Empirical Dilemma and Other Issues.- 5.7.4. Summary.- 5.8. Conclusion.- Problems.- Six. Systems View of Problems and Problematic Situations.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. Setting the Scene.- 6.3. Hard Systems Methodologies.- 6.3.1. Introduction.- 6.3.2. Systems Analysis.- 6.3.3. Systems Engineering.- 6.3.4. Operations Research.- 6.3.5. Summary.- 6.4. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM).- 6.4.1. Introduction.- 6.4.2. The Methodology.- 6.4.3. Summary.- 6.5. Teaching and Learning Methodologies.- 6.5.1. Introduction.- 6.5.2. Rules of Checkland’s Methodology.- 6.5.3. Rules of Jenkins’s Methodology.- 6.5.4. Summary.- 6.6. Which Methodology When?.- 6.6.1. Introduction.- 6.6.2. Architecture of Systems Problem Solving.- 6.6.3. Toward a System of Systems Methodologies.- 6.6.4. Toward a Problem Management Tool Kit for Pragmatists.- 6.6.5. Summary.- 6.7. Three Case Studies.- 6.7.1. Introduction.- 6.7.2. Case Study 1.- 6.7.3. Case Study 2.- 6.7.4. Case Study 3.- 6.7.5. Summary.- 6.8. Conclusion.- Problems.- Seven. Systems Theory in International Relations.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. Systems and International Relations.- 7.2.1. The Current Position.- 7.2.2. The International System.- 7.3. Conclusion.- Problems.- Eight. Systems Quantification: From Stone Age to Space Age.- 8.1. Introduction.- 8.2. Using Letters Instead of Numbers.- 8.3. Rate of Change.- 8.4. Drawing up Differential Equations.- 8.5. Computer Simulation.- 8.5.1. Introduction.- 8.5.2. Simulation by Analog, Hybrid, and Digital Methods.- 8.5.3. Solving Differential Equations Using Digital Computers.- 8.5.4. Constructing a Program.- 8.5.5. Simulation Languages.- 8.5.6. Summary.- 8.6. Quantitative Cybernetics.- 8.6.1. Introduction.- 8.6.2. Dynamics and Feedback.- 8.6.3. Summary.- 8.7. Autoregression and Moving Averages.- 8.7.1. Introduction.- 8.7.2. Variance and Covariance.- 8.7.3. Stationarity and Differences.- 8.7.4. Autocorrelation.- 8.7.5. Correlogram.- 8.7.6. Partial Autocorrelation.- 8.7.7. Moving Average Process.- 8.7.8. Autoregressive Process.- 8.7.9. ARIMA Process.- 8.7.10. Requirements and Tests on ARIMA Processes.- 8.7.11. Summary.- 8.8. Statistical Transfer Functions.- 8.8.1. Introduction.- 8.8.2. Cross-Correlation.- 8.8.3. Transfer Function Models.- 8.8.4. Summary.- 8.9. Recursive Estimation.- 8.9.1. Introduction.- 8.9.2. Transfer Function Models.- 8.9.3. State-Space Models.- 8.9.4. Summary.- 8.10. Conclusion.- Problems.- Nine. Systems and Modeling II: Process, Purposes, and Approaches.- 9.1. Introduction.- 9.2. The Modeling Process.- 9.2.1. Introduction.- 9.2.2. Modeling Purposes.- 9.2.3. Summary.- 9.3. Modeling Approaches.- 9.3.1. Introduction.- 9.3.2. Critical Reviews.- 9.3.3. Declaring Assumptions.- 9.3.4. Verbal-Sentential.- 9.3.5. Diagrammatic.- 9.3.6. Mathematical.- 9.3.7. Statistical.- 9.3.8. Logical.- 9.3.9. A Methodology for Modeling Structured Situations.- 9.3.10. Summary.- 9.4. Case Studies.- 9.4.1. Introduction.- 9.4.2. Background and Purposes.- 9.4.3. Fluid-Electrolyte Acid-Base Balance.- 9.4.4. Critical Review.- 9.4.5. ARIMA Modeling.- 9.4.6. Transfer Function Modeling.- 9.4.7. Compact Compartmental Modeling.- 9.4.8. Comparison of the Compact Approaches.- 9.4.9. A Complex Control System Model.- 9.4.10. Consideration of the Complex Approach.- 9.4.11. Logical Modeling.- 9.4.12. Qualitative, Quantitative, and Logical Modeling Approaches.- 9.4.13. Summary.- 9.5. Conclusion.- Problems.- Ten. Systems Science: Making Sense of the Philosophical Issues.- 10.1. Introduction.- 10.2. The Philosophical Issues.- 10.2.1. Introduction.- 10.2.2. Four Main Areas of Dispute.- 10.2.3. Summary.- 10.3. Making Sense.- 10.3.1. Introduction.- 10.3.2. The Scientific Approach.- 10.3.3. Science and Matters of Society.- 10.3.4. Summary.- 10.4. Tying It All Together.- 10.4.1. Introduction.- 10.4.2. An Impressionistic View.- 10.4.3. Summary.- 10.5. Conclusion.- Problems.- References.