Tetlock philip belkin aaron (23 risultati)

Paperback. Condizione: Good. Proposes a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a range of applications. This volume makes use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis.…

Paperback. Condizione: Good. Proposes a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a range of applications. This volume makes use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis.…

Softcover. Condizione: Very good.

paperback. Condizione: Good. clean used paperback copy, some markings on the pages, no stains or stickers, fast shipping with tracking number.

Paperback. Condizione: Fine. Quarto in green and blue glossy wraps; x, 344 pages; 23 cm; bibliographical references (pages 317-335) and index. Contents: 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives / Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin -- 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes / James D. Fearon -- 3. Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations / George W. Breslauer -- 4. Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences / Yuen Foong Khong -- 5. Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis / Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein -- 6. Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran / Richard K. Herrmann and Michael P. Fischerkeller -- 7. Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence / Bruce Russett -- 8. Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution / Edgar Kiser and Margaret Levi -- 9. Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. // World politics. History -- Philosophy. Counterfactuals (Logic) Thought experiments. Politique mondiale. Contrefactuels (Logique) Exp?riences de pens?e. Counterfactuals (Logic) History -- Philosophy. Thought experiments. World politics. Gedankenexperiment Geschichte Internationale Politik Aufsatzsammlung Internationale politiek. Counterfactual analysis. Teoria politica. Filosofia. Historia (teoria) World politics. History -- Philosophy. Counterfactuals (Logic) Political science -- Methodology. Aufsatzsammlung. Fine with very slight wear to edges. See photos.…

Condizione: New.

brossura. Condizione: Fine. 1. Copertina plastificata. Tagli sporchi di polvere in modo lievissimo. Pagine integre. 0691027919 Ottimo (Fine) . Book.

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.…

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New.

Condizione: New. 1996. Paperback. . . . . .

Condizione: New.

Paperback. Condizione: New. Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis.Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.…

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New. 1996. Paperback. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland.

Condizione: New. In English.

Paperback / softback. Condizione: New. New copy - Usually dispatched within 4 working days.

Paperback. Condizione: New. Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis.Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.…

Paperback. Condizione: Brand New. illustrated edition. 344 pages. 9.50x6.00x1.00 inches. In Stock.

Paperback. Condizione: Brand New. illustrated edition. 344 pages. 9.50x6.00x1.00 inches. In Stock. This item is printed on demand.

Condizione: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. Proposes a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a range of applications. This volume makes use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts .…

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. nach der Bestellung gedruckt Neuware - Printed after ordering - Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.…

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics | Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives | Philip E. Tetlock (u. a.) | Taschenbuch | Englisch | 1996 | Princeton University Press | EAN 9780691027913 | Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Libri GmbH, Europaallee 1, 36244 Bad Hersfeld, gpsr[at]libri[dot]de | Anbieter: preigu Print on Demand. …