9781118073759 - The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty di Savage, Sam L. (54 risultati)

Condizione: good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Gently used with minimal wear on the corners and cover. A few pages may contain light highlighting or writing, but the text remains fully legible. Dust jacket may be missing, and supplemental materials like CDs or codes may not be included. May be ex-library with library markings. Ships promptly!

Condizione: acceptable. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Book shows noticeable wear from use. May include writing, highlighting, or other markings, but not excessive. Cover or edges may have visible wear. The book remains complete and fully readable.

Condizione: Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Item in good condition. Textbooks may not include supplemental items i.e. CDs, access codes etc.

Paperback. Condizione: As New. No Jacket. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Pages are clean and are not marred by notes or folds of any kind. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. No Jacket. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.

Paperback. Condizione: Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!

Condizione: Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.

Condizione: good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Supports Goodwill of Silicon Valley job training programs. The cover and pages are in Good condition! Any other included accessories are also in Good condition showing use. Use can include some highlighting and writing, page and cover creases as well as other types visible wear.

Paper Back. Condizione: Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore).

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.

Condizione: As New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore).

Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Brand New! Not Overstocks or Low Quality Book Club Editions! Direct From the Publisher! We're not a giant, faceless warehouse organization! We're a small town bookstore that loves books and loves it's customers! Buy from Lakeside Books!

Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Brand New.

Paperback or Softback. Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty. Book.

Paperback. Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." -William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." -­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics.

Paperback. Condizione: new. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Paperback. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next months sales, next years costs, or tomorrows stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the readers intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savages lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages. William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact Tomorrow's stock price, next month's sales, next year's costs these are all numbers we don't know yet. Yet everyday, we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability.

Condizione: Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Most items will be dispatched the same or the next working day. A copy that has been read but remains in clean condition. All of the pages are intact and the cover is intact and the spine may show signs of wear. The book may have minor markings which are not specifically mentioned.

Paperback. Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." -William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." -­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics.

PAP. Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000.

paperback. Condizione: Very Good. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Orders shipped daily from the UK. Professional seller.

Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). pp. 416.

Condizione: new. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore).

Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). pp. 416.

Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). pp. 416.

Condizione: As New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore). Unread book in perfect condition.

Paperback. Condizione: New. Danziger, Jeff (illustratore).