9783031080098 - uncertainty deconstructed: a guidebook for decision support practitioners di garvey, bruce; humzah, dowshan; le roux, storm (11 risultati)
- Brossura
Da: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, U.S.A.GreatBookPrices
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Usato - Come nuovo
EUR 63,07
EUR 2,31 spedizioneSpedito in U.S.A.Quantità: 15 disponibili
Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.
- Brossura
Da: Ria Christie Collections, Uxbridge, Regno UnitoRia Christie Collections
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 61,35
EUR 14,05 spedizioneSpedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.Quantità: Più di 20 disponibili
Condizione: New. In.
- Brossura
Da: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, U.S.A.GreatBookPrices
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 75,01
EUR 2,31 spedizioneSpedito in U.S.A.Quantità: 15 disponibili
Condizione: New.
- Brossura
Da: Revaluation Books, Exeter, Regno UnitoRevaluation Books
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 80,55
EUR 11,73 spedizioneSpedito da Regno Unito a U.S.A.Quantità: 2 disponibili
Paperback. Condizione: Brand New. 328 pages. 9.25x6.10x0.69 inches. In Stock.
- Brossura
Da: AHA-BUCH GmbH, Einbeck, GermaniaAHA-BUCH GmbH
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 53,49
EUR 62,50 spedizioneSpedito da Germania a U.S.A.Quantità: 1 disponibili
Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable - good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather… than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term 'unknown - unknowns' is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are 'known-unknowns' or 'inevitable surprises'.This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future - we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide.Endorsements for the book:'With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour.This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as 'fake news' - part of a fascinating dissection of 'dark data' - and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero - all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously.No one can completely eliminate '20:20 hindsight' from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying 'if only we'd known.' less frequently.'--Nick Bush,Director -CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence)'Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty ('unknown unknowns'), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or 'unknown knowns'), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a 'hidden influencer' which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry.'--Dr. Geoff Darch,Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water.Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty.
Altre immagini- Brossura
Da: preigu, Osnabrück, Germaniapreigu
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 50,40
EUR 70,00 spedizioneSpedito da Germania a U.S.A.Quantità: 5 disponibili
Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Uncertainty Deconstructed | A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners | Bruce Garvey (u. a.) | Taschenbuch | Science, Technology and Innovation Studies | xxiv | Englisch | 2023 | Springer | EAN 9783031080098 | Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, 69121 Hei…delberg, juergen[dot]hartmann[at]springer[dot]com | Anbieter: preigu.
- Brossura
- Print on Demand
Da: Brook Bookstore On Demand, Napoli, NA, ItaliaBrook Bookstore On Demand
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 46,22
EUR 5,50 spedizioneSpedito da Italia a U.S.A.Quantità: Più di 20 disponibili
Condizione: new. Questo è un articolo print on demand.
- Brossura
- Print on Demand
Da: BuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K., Bergisch Gladbach, GermaniaBuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K.
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 53,49
EUR 23,00 spedizioneSpedito da Germania a U.S.A.Quantità: 2 disponibili
Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable - good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the…possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term 'unknown - unknowns' is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are 'known-unknowns' or 'inevitable surprises'.This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future - we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide.Endorsements for the book:'With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour.This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as 'fake news' - part of a fascinating dissection of 'dark data' - and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero - all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously.No one can completely eliminate '20:20 hindsight' from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying 'if only we'd known.' less frequently.'--Nick Bush,Director -CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence)'Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty ('unknown unknowns'), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or 'unknown knowns'), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a 'hidden influencer' which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry.'--Dr. Geoff Darch,Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water.Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty 328 pp. Englisch.
- Brossura
- Print on Demand
Da: Biblios, frankfurt am main, HESSE, GermaniaBiblios
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 4 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 81,37
EUR 9,95 spedizioneSpedito da Germania a U.S.A.Quantità: 4 disponibili
Condizione: New. PRINT ON DEMAND pp. 328.
Lingua: Inglese
Editore: Springer, Berlin|Springer International Publishing|Springer, 2023
- Brossura
- Print on Demand
Da: moluna, Greven, Germaniamoluna
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 47,23
EUR 48,99 spedizioneSpedito da Germania a U.S.A.Quantità: Più di 20 disponibili
Condizione: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable - good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about… exploring the possible, rather than t.
- Brossura
- Print on Demand
Da: buchversandmimpf2000, Emtmannsberg, BAYE, Germaniabuchversandmimpf2000
Contatta il venditoreVenditore con 5 stelleCondizione: Nuovo
EUR 53,49
EUR 60,00 spedizioneSpedito da Germania a U.S.A.Quantità: 1 disponibili
Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware -This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable - good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the poss…ible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term 'unknown - unknowns' is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are 'known-unknowns' or 'inevitable surprises'.This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future - we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide.Endorsements for the book:'With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour.This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as 'fake news' - part of a fascinating dissection of 'dark data' - and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero - all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously.No one can completely eliminate '20:20 hindsight' from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying 'if only we'd known.' less frequently.' Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence)'Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty ('unknown unknowns'), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or 'unknown knowns'), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a 'hidden influencer' which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry.' Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network'This is a valuable companionSpringer-Verlag KG, Sachsenplatz 4-6, 1201 Wien 328 pp. Englisch.
